Miami Marlins Round Table Discussion (Part 1): When Will Jose Fernandez Return?

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May 20, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) fields questions from reporters prior to a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another Miami Marlins Round Table Discussion. On today’s agenda, we’ll be previewing the season for the Miami Marlins, which is set begin today on Opening Day 2015. This is part 1 of a 3 part segment.

1. When will Jose Fernandez return? What are your expectations for him?

Ehsan Kassim: Wait, he’s not pitching today? Damn April Fools Jokes. I agree with Dillon, Jose should be back at the beginning of June, as he’s progressed really well so far. When he comes back he’ll probably be around 75-80% of the pitcher he was before for the first month or so. Which is still better than most other starters in the league.

Travis Honeycutt: Fernandez will be back July 1 and make the start that night against the Giants. He will subsequently no-hit those Giants, and hit a home run that he will pimp as he trots the bases. This display of one-upsmanship will tick off Giants third baseman Casey McGehee, who will charge in from 3rd base and get clotheslined by Jeff Mathis, sparking a hilarious brawl.

Daniel Zylberkan: I expect him to return sometime in the first couple of weeks of July. It’ll probably take sometime to get the rust off and I think that his control especially on the curveball will suffer a bit. But I still expect him to be the best pitcher in the rotation after rejoining it.

Miller Lepree: I see Jose making his first start after the all star break, and being pretty lights out during the stretch run. From what we’ve seen of Jose in his brief career, there is zero reason to believe he won’t cruise through rehab and pitch like a man on a mission. I’m going out on a limb and projecting 150 strikeouts in 15 starts for Jose.

David Polakoff: Jose will return to make one or two starts before the All-Star Break.

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Dillon Murrell: Jose will be back by June 1st. His rehab has gone very well so far so I don’t think he’s going to have too many problems getting up to speed. It’s hard to say he’s going to be full throttle right away, and he probably shouldn’t be, but I don’t really see Jose wanting to take it easy. He’ll need a few starts under his belt to going, but even a not-as-good Jose Fernandez is better than most of the league.

Michael Sonbeek: I expect an early June return for Jose Fernandez, so I’ll say he’ll be back the first week of June. I obviously don’t expect him to be back to his old self right away, but I do expect the best or 2nd best numbers from June on.

Next: Ozuna or Yelich?

Jul 21, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Christian Yelich (center), right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (left) and center fielder Marcell Ozuna (13) celebrate defeating the Atlanta Braves 3-1 in extra innings at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports

2. Marcell Ozuna or Christian Yelich, which one is more susceptible for a let down year?

Ehsan Kassim: Marcell Ozuna is more susceptible, in my opinion. Yelich seems to have a more sound overall game, which does not depend on one tool. Ozuna could be in trouble if his BABIP or power slip up, even a little. Also, it’ll be interesting to see if he can maintain his strong defense in center for a second straight year.

Travis Honeycutt: Marcell Ozuna. He will sadly show that he is more of the hitter he was in 2013 than he was last year. He’ll still hit a dozen or so home runs, but I’ve predicted a down year for him this whole offseason. Ichiro might actually take his CF job by the All-Star break. Sorry, #MarlinFamily.

Daniel Zylberkan: Ozuna although he makes some great contact he still has problems with plate discipline, pitch recognition and approach. For Ozuna to become the kind of player he can be he needs to make more contact and strikeout much less.

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Miller Lepree: Just like everyone else said. Ozuna strikes out more and is much less disciplined, making him prone to extended slumps.

David Polakoff: Ozuna is more susceptible to a down year. Yelich’s eye, speed, and defense can propel him to a decent season even if he doesn’t hit as much as last year, but if Ozuna’s K rate increases, or pitchers start throwing differently to him given that he’ll likely have Saltalamacchia behind him, that could be a problem.

Dillon Murrell: Christian Yelich has a very high floor. His plate discipline, hit tool, speed, and defense mean he’ll always be at least league average. Some people might argue that Ozuna has a higher ceiling, and they’re probably not wrong, but the contact issues definitely make him more prone to down years. His defense in centerfield and quality of contact also make him pretty safe, but people are now expecting him to be a borderline star, so even if he’s just league average that would be a let down.

Michael Sonbeek: Marcell Ozuna. Simply because you can’t bet against Yelich.

Mar 24, 2015; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (39) walks into the dugout before a game against the Boston Red Sox at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

3. Which Marlin is going to breakout this season? Which player will be a bust?

Ehsan Kassim: I agree with Travis and pick Jarrod Saltalamacchia. I highly doubt he will be as bad as he was last season, while I also doubt we get the 2013 version. However, a 15-18 home run season with a decent on base percentage and a better feel of the pitching staff is around what I expect. Hopefully he can get back to his 30+ doubles season in the spacious Marlins Park. The player that will bust will be Jarred Cosart. His strikeout numbers are underwhelming and unlike other Marlins starters, he does not avoid the walks enough. Expect some regression in his allowing home runs as well.

Travis Honeycutt: Believe it or not I’m giving Jarrod Saltalamachia the nod as the breakout candidate, or “re-breakout” candidate would be more accurate. He was good his last year with Boston, but you know, Fenway Park. I do think he’ll still strike out a ton, but might actually put up slightly better than league average numbers again with closer to 20 home run power. That qualifies as a Salty breakout in my book.

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Daniel Zylberkan: I agree with Michael, Prado was my favorite acquisition of the winter. He still is a an above average defensive third baseman and is a good contact double hitter. I think Gordon’s numbers have the best potential to fall off a cliff, if his BABIP regresses too much there’s nothing there to support his production especially as primarily a speed threat.

Miller Lepree: I don’t know if this qualifies as a break out, but I see Mike Morse having a huge year. There is still depth in the lineup behind him, with Prado, Ozuna, and (sort of) Saltalamacchia. The key here is injuries, he’s always been able to hit, he just can’t stay on the field; I think his move to first base should help alleviate that. Ozuna is a candidate.

David Polakoff: The breakout year will come from Christian Yelich, who will benefit from hitting in front of Stanton. But Ozuna will be a disappointment, unable to reach his heights from last year.

Dillon Murrell: With that being said (see question #2), I think Ozuna has a breakout. Marlins Park will always suppress his power numbers, but he makes very good contact, so that alone means he has the chance to mature as a hitter. If he improves his plate discipline, he could really become a star caliber player. I think he takes a big step forward this season. The player I think will bust is Jarred Cosart. Unless he takes a step forward in terms of K% and BB%, he’s going to regress to a certain degree. It’s not realistic to expect him to suppress home runs and hard contact at even better than elite levels, so if he doesn’t improve in certain areas he’s going to take a step back.

Michael Sonbeek: I predict a breakout season for Martin Prado. I think he’ll have the best year out of all the position players the Marlins acquired in the off-season. I think Dee Gordon will be a bust this year. As most of us on here think the Marlins shouldn’t have given up Heaney for him.

Next: Lineup Configuration

Dec 8, 2014; San Deigo, CA, USA; Miami Marlins manager Mike Redmond speaks to media at MLB Winter Meetings at Manchester Grand Hyatt. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

4. You are Mike Redmond, align the Marlins lineup how you’d like.

Ehsan Kassim: If I was Mike Redmond, I’d be richer and not writing for a blog, but I digress:

1. Yelich, 2. Prado, 3. Giancarlo, 4. Ozuna, 5. Morse, 6. Salty, 7. Hech, 8. Pitcher, 9. Dee.

Joe Maddon had a similar lineup on Opening Night for the Cubs (and it kind of didn’t work) and it would be a fun lineup throughout the season.

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Travis Honeycutt:

1. Christian Yelich, LF
2. Martin Prado, 3B
3. Giancarlo Stanton, RF
4. Michael Morse, 1B
5. Marcell Ozuna, CF
6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
7. Dee Gordon, 2B
8. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS

Daniel Zylberkan: My perfect lineup would be. Hitting the pitcher 8th would allow the Marlins to have two leadoff hitters.
Yelich LF
Prado 3B
Stanton RF
Morse 1B
Ozuna CF
Saltalamacchia C
Hechavarria SS
Pitcher
Gordon 2B

Miller Lepree:

1. Yelich
2. Prado
3. Stanton
4. Morse
5. Ozuna
6. Saltalamacchia
7. Hechavarria
8. Pitcher
9. Gordon

David Polakoff: My ideal lineup has a better leadoff option than Gordon. But given that that player isn’t on the team, I’d swap Ozuna and Prado in the lineup, with Ozuna 5th and Prado 6th.

Dillon Murrell: My line up is:
Gordon
Yelich
Stanton
Ozuna
Prado
Morse
Salty
Hechavarria

Michael Sonbeek: I’ve had this discussion many of times on here with Dillon, another writer on this site and we both tend to agree that Stanton should hit second. Which may shock some people.
Yelich LF
Stanton RF
Gordon 2nd
Ozuna CF
Morse 1B
Prado 3rd
Salty C
Hech SS

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