Feb 20, 2015; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) is seen taking the field prior to a workout at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
"7. Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins (Law: 16) ZiPS is more aggressive than Keith here, simply because Fernandez’s upside is just so crazy high. ZiPS knows the difference between shoulder and elbow surgeries, and while it’s not going to have the same expertise when evaluating a player’s health as a human evaluator, it’s useful to know that Tommy John surgery comeback rates are high enough that just having the surgery isn’t a deal-breaker."
"10. Christian Yelich, LF, Miami Marlins (Law: 7) Yelich isn’t the classic corner outfield power type, but he provides Gold Glove-level defense in left, can get on base and has one of the sweetest line-drive swings in the majors. With his swing and solid speed, Yelich should always be a high-BABIP guy and maintain significant value even if the power doesn’t develop. ZiPS never sees him as better than 50/50 to hit more than 14 homers in a given season going forward, but he doesn’t necessarily need to do that, given the other things he can do."
ZiPS, acting as a projection system and not weighting Fernandez’s Tommy John surgery as harshly as Law is, something Dan is sure to point out. The upside for Fernandez justifies his spot on the list around this spot. Of course, he’d likely slot higher if healthy.
Yelich places 3 spots lower on this list compared to Law’s, but part of that is because Fernandez jumped Yelich on Dan’s list. ZiPS and Dan have mostly good things to say about Yelich’s future, so criticizing his drop from 7 to 10 would literally be nitpicking.
On Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS list, Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna was not included, but fret not Marlins fans, we already yelled at him on Twitter.
No need for continued harassment for the guy. He does have reasons to justify leaving Ozuna off the list. We on Marlin Maniac love Ozuna, but have talked about the possibility of him struggling if he were to lose his power or defensive prowess.