Miami Marlins Series Preview: Home Run Derby Practice for Giancarlo Stanton in Cincinnati?

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Jun 16, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) connects for a three run homer during the fifth inning against the New York Yankees at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

After sweeping the New York Yankees in two games in Miami, the Miami Marlins dropped both games back in New York, to even the Marlins-Yanks series at 2 a piece. The two-game slide dropped the Marlins to 10 games under .500, at 29-39.

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MW: Right now, I would say the Reds are winning the trade. Mat Latos has missed some time with knee issues and hasn’t been all that effective when healthy, though his first start off the DL was impressive (and, of course, I pick him up in fantasy baseball and he’s getting torched as I type this). Meanwhile, Anthony DeSclafani has quietly put together a strong rookie campaign. He’s currently 5-4 with a 3.36 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 53 strikeouts, and 30 walks in 77.2 innings.

DeSclafani might not beat out bigger stars like Kris Bryant or Joc Pederson for Rookie of the Year voting, but he’s certainly deserving of consideration. Another advantage that I feel the Reds had in the trade is that they get six years of DeSclafani while the Marlins get only one year of Latos. Of course, if Latos helps lead the Marlins back to the playoffs, I don’t think their fans will be complaining.

For those wondering how the other piece of the Latos trade, catcher Chad Wallach, is performing, he’s currently playing for the High-A Daytona Tortugas and has struggled in 2015, hitting .226/.300/.332 with three home runs and 17 RBIs.

MM: The All-Star Game is in Cincinnati this season, is there a different vibe around the stadium because of it? How much more exciting is the game with it being played in your team’s stadium?

MW: There’s definitely a different vibe among the fanbase and around the city. I think many fans have been waiting a long time for the All-Star Game to return to Cincinnati, as it’s been 27 years since the city last hosted the Midsummer Classic. It’s not often you get to see some of the game’s brightest stars in one place at one time. The area around the stadium has been completely renovated over the course of the last several years in preparation and there are All-Star Game advertisements everywhere. Just last week, Cincinnati and MLB unveiled mustache statues (in honor of one of their mascots, Mr. Redlegs) that are located all over the city to commemorate the game. There’s definitely a buzz about the game and it should be great for Reds fans.

MM: Are Cueto and Chapman going to be Reds after the July 31st trade deadline? If not, where do you see them ending up? What kind of return is the team seeking?

MW: Personally, I think the Reds would be better off trading both before the deadline to start the process of restocking their farm system with some young talent. As to whether or not the Reds will actually deal them, I’m not entirely sure. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently reported that Reds’ owner Bob Castellini is not ready to concede this season and sign off on a sale of some of the team’s best players. That being said, I still believe Castellini will come around eventually if the team continues to struggle.

I’d be shocked if Cueto is still a Red after the trade deadline. His contract is up after the season and there’s no way the Reds are going to be able to afford him with the other huge contracts they currently have on the books. They’d be foolish not to deal Cueto and get some talented young prospects for him if the team isn’t in the playoff race. The Yankees have been heavily scouting the Reds’ ace, so that could be a potential landing spot.

I’m 50-50 on whether Chapman gets traded this season. The Reds would get a ton in return for one of the game’s most dominant pitchers, especially when you consider he’d be more than a rental player since his contract runs through 2016. However, that extra year may also may be a reason that the Reds end up keeping him, at least through the remainder of this season. Another reason I could see them holding on to Chapman is that he’s a fan favorite and people come to the ballpark to see him. It would be a silly reason, for sure, but not one out of the realm of possibility.

MM: How did the Reds do the draft earlier this month? What is the current state of the farm system?

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MW: The Reds took high school catcher Tyler Stephenson in the first round of this year’s draft. He’s got great power and scouts also rave about his defense behind the plate. For a team that doesn’t have a lot of position player depth, taking a catcher in the first round was a smart move. The top comparison I’ve seen for Stephenson is Orioles’ catcher Matt Wieters. If Stephenson turns out to be as good as Wieters, Reds fans would have to be thrilled.

Overall, the Reds have a a mid-tier farm system. Baseball America ranked it as the 17th best in baseball before the season. It’s a very pitching-heavy farm system, as seven of their top 10 prospects (per Baseball America) are pitchers. Robert Stephenson, their No. 1 prospect, throws up to 100 mph and currently sits in Double-A. It’s possible he could make his way to the big leagues at some point in 2015.

Their lack of hitting prospects has been part of the reason the big league team has struggled in the wake of so many injuries. Most of the top-hitting prospects they do have are still in the lower levels of the minor leagues and aren’t ready to contribute to the major league team.

Next: Pitching Matchups and Predictions

Jun 14, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani (28) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

MM: Can you give us a quick scouting report on the pitchers the Marlins will face this series?

MW: The Marlins are scheduled to see Mike Leake, Anthony DeSclafani, and Michael Lorenzen this weekend.

Leake is certainly known more for his “stuff” than striking people out. He throws a lot of sinkers and cutters, resulting in a lot of ground balls (his ground ball rate this season is 52.4 percent). After a hot start this year, Leake has regressed a bit and is 3-4 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.26 WHIP overall. One of his biggest issues has been with the long ball, as he’s allowed 13 of them this season, 12th most in baseball.

I’m sure many of you are familiar with DeSclafani. He has a fastball that can touch 96 mph on the radar gun, but he hasn’t posted high strikeout numbers this year. He’s also walking more batters than he did during his minor league career, but I think his BB% will come down with more major league experience. “Disco” has thrown some of his best baseball lately, allowing 10 runs over his last five starts (32.2 innings).

Lorenzen is one of the rookie pitchers the Reds have had to rely on after the injury to Homer Bailey and the trades of Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon in the offseason. He can crank it up to 97 mph, but like DeSclafani, doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters. He’s had the ups and downs that most rookies do, but has held his own for the most part. His biggest issue has got deep into games, as his high walk rate tends to keep his pitch count high, but he’s shown good poise on the mound and does well to work out of jams. He’s 2-2 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the year.

MM: How do you see the series playing out? Any bold predictions?

MW: Obviously the Reds are going to get the sweep, right? Looking at the numbers, it appears the Reds and Marlins are pretty comparable teams. The Reds’ have scored 265 runs this season while the Marlins have scored 264, and the Marlins’ pitching staff has a slightly lower season ERA (4.01 to 4.07). After a glance over the standings, I see the Marlins have struggled on the road much like the Reds have, so that could be to the advantage of the home team this weekend. I’ll go on record and say the Reds take two out of three.

I’ll go with three bold predictions:
1) Giancarlo Stanton hits at least three home runs in this series (is that even a bold prediction at this point?). In tiny Great American Ball Park, his unbelievable power should be on full display.
2) Anthony DeSclafani tosses a complete game gem to beat his former team on Saturday.
3) Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon combine for seven steals this weekend.

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That just about does it for our Reds series primer. A big thanks to Matthew Wilkes for taking the time to answer our questions, and make sure to check out Blog Red Machine for all your Cincinnati Reds coverage. You can follow Matthew and Blog Red Machine on Twitter as well.

Follow Marlin Maniac on Twitter @MarlinManiac for all your Miami Marlins news, opinion and analysis!

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