What Could The Miami Marlins Do At The Trade Deadline?

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Nov 19, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins vice president & general manager Dan Jennings listens during a press conference at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

With the calendar now reading July, trade season is coming upon us. Rumors have begun swirling more and more over the last couple weeks but expect the number of rumors to increase after the conclusion of the All-Star Break next week.

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However, teams aren’t buying ERA anymore and a slightly below average starter that will give you at least 6 innings every time out does have some value.

We have a pretty good comparable for a Dan Haren trade. In early July 2013, Scott Feldman was traded from the Cubs to the Orioles. At the time of the trade, Feldman had a little bit of a better FIP than Haren currently does (3.93 versus 4.29). Haren is extremely dependable, though, and can be counted on to not miss starts. That means something to a playoff contender down the stretch, even if Haren doesn’t make a postseason start.

Also, the acquiring team will pay Haren virtually nothing since the Dodgers are picking up the tab on the last year of his contract. The Orioles had to pay the remaining $3 million or so owed to Feldman. All in all, their value is probably incredibly similar.

What did the Cubs get for Feldman? The full trade was Feldman and Steve Clevenger for Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, and 2 international bonus slots. More or less we can break this trade into two parts, with one part being Clevenger for the international bonus slots. That leaves Feldman for Arrieta and Strop, which has certainly worked out very well for the Cubs considering Arrieta’s renaissance and Strop being a good bullpen arm. At the time, Arrieta was a former top prospect that struggled mightily in the bigs and Strop mostly looked expendable. Both guys still had pretty considerable upside and these are the kinds of players the Marlins should target.

Buy low on a former top prospect that still has time to turn it around while also adding a risky bullpen arm with upside. It is very unlikely the Miami Marlins will have the same success the Cubs did with their trade, but it is very much a risk worth taking.

One name that might be interesting is Dylan Bundy. His stock has cratered after suffering a number of injuries and he is out of options this year. The Orioles might be willing to part with him in a trade and while the risk is extremely high, so is the reward. It’s a very bold move but it’s also the kind that the team should start making more.

If the Mariners get close and decide to buy to make a run at the AL Wild Card, Danny Hultzen might also be an intriguing option. Same boat as Bundy (he’s suffered many injuries), but he’s a former top prospect and is still just 25.

Next: Mat Latos

Jun 24, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Mat Latos (35) throws against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fifth inning at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Mat Latos pitched quite poorly before going on the disabled list May 23rd. He has pitched much better upon his return, mostly due to his regained velocity which is looking a lot like pre-2014 levels. Before going on the DL, his average fastball velocity was down from his 90.7 MPH mark in 2014, which was already a career low.

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Since coming back from the disabled list, his season average has jumped up to 91.3 MPH and figures to keep climbing. After getting off to such a bad start, Latos’ season stats are 20.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, 9.1% home run/fly ball rate, and 3.51 FIP. These are all virtually equal to his career stats of 21.8%, 7.2%, 8.5%, and 3.41.

Basically, Mat Latos has been as good as he’s always been and might even be pitching better than ever.

Originally, I thought Matt Garza might be a good comparable for Latos. I thought Latos might rebound from injury and solidify himself as a mid-rotation arm, much like Garza did before being traded by the Cubs. But Latos is looking more like his frontline self and while he isn’t an ace, he’s a solid 2.

Now, he sort of sits in between Garza and Zack Greinke (Greinke being traded to the Angels by the Brewers in exchange for a package highlighted by Jean Segura, who was rated the #55 prospect in baseball by MLB.com going into 2012). The Matt Garza package was headlined by Mike Olt, the #58 prospect in baseball heading into 2013. The Cubs actually came out the best of everyone, but not because Olt has been successful. The team also acquired CJ Edwards from Texas and he is currently the team’s number one prospect (after a number of graduations from the system) and ranked #38 overall in baseball.

So what could Latos bring back in a deal? I think a prospect in the same range would make some sense. At least a team’s top 5 prospect and maybe a couple of fringe guys towards the back of the top 30 or one player in the 15-20 range.

I think headliners like Jeff Hoffman from the Blue Jays or Vincent Velazquez from the Astros seem appropriate. This is probably the team’s best trade chip (if it doesn’t go into “fire sale” mode) and the team might even be able to ratchet up the price depending on how the market shapes up.

Next: Other Miami Marlins Assets

Jun 3, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins third baseman Martin Prado (14) connects for an RBI single during the sixth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Now for the rest of the selling options. The best name in this group is Martin Prado, but he isn’t as likely to be moved as Tom Koehler or Brad Hand. Another option could be Steve Cishek if the team markets him as a ROOGY (right-handed version of a LOOGY, of course).

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Martin Prado is a league average player at third or second who can also play the outfield and will only be owed $8 million next season, since the Yankees are paying $3 million of his salary this year and next. In total, Prado probably has a surplus value of around $9.5 million. An acquiring team can expect around 2.5 wins over the next year and a half while paying him $12 million. The dollars per win on that come out to $4.8 million per win, much less than the current rate of $8 million. The market rate figures to jump up close to $9 million, so he’s a good bargain even if he isn’t going to have a huge impact.

What does that mean in terms of prospects? Prado has been swapped for some good talent, being the centerpiece in return for players like Justin Upton and Nathan Eovaldi. Prado was traded to the Yankees last season in exchange for Peter O’Brien, but that looks mostly like bad trading on the Diamondbacks’ part. So teams have definitely valued him in the past. Research shows that starting pitching prospects in the last half of the top 100 prospect list have a surplus value of about $9.5 million. It is more likely, however, that a team will give up a pitcher that ranks among its 5th-10th ranked prospects.

Since Prado is a free agent following next season, he can appeal to a greater number of teams. Underperforming teams like the A’s and Indians might have as much interest as teams like the Nationals and Mets. The team should expect to bring back arms that profile as back-end starters at best but also have high floors. Basically, Justin Nicolino and Jose Urena. Some names that might make sense are Justus Sheffield (CLE), Dillon Overton (OAK), Austin Voth (WAS), or Gabriel Ynoa (NYM). Not a lot of upside with these arms, but young arms are always worth taking a shot on.

Koehler, Hand, and Cishek don’t have a lot of value. At best they can bring in a fringe prospect but they’d mostly bring in organizational depth, which the team certainly needs. The team might also be able to attach Morse to a deal, but that would certainly drag down the value quite a bit. The team needs to acquire talent through trades so dumping his salary isn’t the way to go. If they turned around and used that money smartly, then throwing him in a trade would be fine.

A player that has produced at the level Morse had would likely sign a Minor League deal, so the Miami Marlins would have to eat his entire salary and still not get anything of value back. They basically have to just ride this one out through next year.

The team has a pretty good chance of giving the farm system a boost, but nothing that’s going to re-shape the team’s long term outlook right away. They can certainly add desperately needed talent while surrendering pieces they don’t really need. Tomorrow, I’ll look at the buy moves the team should make.

Follow Marlin Maniac on Twitter @MarlinManiac for all your Miami Marlins news, opinion and analysis!

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