Miami Marlins: 3 Marlins In Fangraphs Top 30 Trade Value List

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Aug 2, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (center) celebrates with right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (left) after defeating the Cleveland Indians 10-0 at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Every July, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs does his trade value list, an exercise to figure out which Major League baseball has the most trade value and could bring the most talented returns to their respective teams.

Last year he ranked the Miami Marlins star duo, of Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton, 34th and 15th respectively.

Cameron makes the list with the help of Dan Szymborski, who appeared on FishCast a few weeks ago, and his ZiPS 5-year projection.

As a reminder, in addition to the player’s biographical information, I’ve added a summary of his contract situation, and as a new feature this year, Dan Szymborski has provided me with five year ZIPS forecasts for all of the players on the list, which I’ve listed along with their 2016 projection. Of course, not every player listed is under control for the next five years — some are locked up well beyond that time frame — but this should offer you a pretty decent view of what a player is expected to do both in the short-term and the longer-term, according to Dan’s forecasting system.

The value of a player is based on future projections as well as surplus value, based on how much value a said player brings to the club.

Dave posted the 50-41 list and 40-31 list the past two days, without any Miami Marlins making his list. That changed today, as Cameron posted his #30-21 players list, which included 3 Marlins.

Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton were joined by outfielder Christian Yelich on the top 50 trade value list this season. All three Marlins players are in the top 30 and should be the 3 lone Miami Marlins on the list.

Let’s take a quick look at where each player ranks and see if Dave got their value right.

Next: Christian Yelich

Jul 7, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder Christian Yelich (21) during the seventh inning after hitting a RBI double against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

#26: Christian Yelich, OF, Miami
Controlled Through: 2022
Guaranteed Dollars: $49 million
2016 ZIPS WAR: +3.8
Five year ZIPS WAR: +19.7
Last Year: Unranked

In what was probably the biggest oversight in putting the list together a year ago, I whiffed on Yelich, and even after a rough start to the 2015 season, he still belongs in this group. His absurdly high ground ball rates mean that he’ll probably never hit for a ton of power, but avoiding hitting the ball in the air also keeps his BABIP quite high, so combined with his walks and speed, Yelich remains a very good offensive player. Toss in plus defense in a corner outfield spot, and Yelich is an excellent player, even if not exactly the prototypical slugger teams often want in a corner spot. The game is changing, though, and Yelich’s broad base of skills are valued now even as a left fielder. And the contract he signed with the Marlins this spring doesn’t hurt his value either. In exchange for long-term security, he sold his three arbitration years (2017-2019) for a total of $21 million, plus Miami bought out two free agent seasons at a total of $26 million, and got a team option for a seventh year at just $15 million to boot. Assuming that option gets picked up, Yelich is controlled for the next seven years at a total of just $62 million. Even if he never develops big time power, he’ll be worth that deal many times over, and if he does figure out how to elevate the ball eventually, he could be one of the game’s biggest bargains for years to come.

As Dave mentions, Yelich was a huge omission for him last season. Yelich was ranked as a top prospect not only for the Marlins every season, but in all of baseball.

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In 2014, Yelich posted a strong .284/.362/.402 slash line with a 116 wRC+ in 660 plate appearances. He also hit 9 home runs, swiped 21 bases, and won the Gold Glove award for left fielders. In all, Yelich amassed a 4.3 fWAR in his sophomore season.

Due to his strong showing in 2014, the Miami Marlins front office determined that Yelich was someone they needed to lock up long-term. Yelich and the Marlins came to terms on a 7-year extension worth $49.6 million over the offseason.

Unfortunately, Yelich did not get off to the best starts to begin the season, posting a .220/.284/.293 slash line with a 62 wRC+ through 134 plate appearances in April and May. This also included a 15-day stint on the DL with a back injury.

However, Yelich has dramatically improved over the past month and a half, posting a .305/.397/.435 slash line with a 134 wRC+ since June 1st. Yelich has collected 10 of hit 15 extra base hits in that span and has walked in almost 14% of his plate appearances.

If the Yelich we saw from June 1st on is the Yelich we’ll see over the course of the contract, the Miami Marlins may have collected a steal in a major way with his extension.

Next: Jose Fernandez

Jul 2, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins manager Dan Jennings (right) is greeted by starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (left) after Fernandez hit a solo home run during the fifth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

#23: Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami
Controlled Through: 2018
Guaranteed Dollars: None
2016 ZIPS WAR: +3.8
Five year ZIPS WAR: +20.4
Last Year: #34

Fernandez and Harvey are similar in so many ways, from the ridiculous dominance pre-injury through their recovery from Tommy John surgery. Both are heading to arbitration for the first time this winter, and both are represented by Scott Boras, so expect no long-term deal here either. Fernandez is four years younger, which is the primary reason he’s ranked ahead of Harvey, but age for pitchers doesn’t matter as much as it does for hitters, so the gap isn’t that large. Fernandez has only made two starts since being back, so we have less information about what he is in the short-term, but if he keeps pitching like he did in those starts, there’s a case to be made that he should be even higher than this. He’s a pretty special pitcher, and even with just three years of team control remaining, the price to pry him out of the Marlins hands would be remarkably high.

Despite being already out for the season at the time of this list coming out last season, Jose Fernandez was still valuable enough to rank 34th on Dave’s list last season. This was due mostly to an extremely strong rookie season showing, as well as a strong sophomore season, before going down with his elbow injury.

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Fernandez posted a 2.19 ERA and a 2.73 FIP in 172 2/3 innings of work in 2013, amassing a 4.1 fWAR in his rookie season. This helped garner Jose the Rookie of the Year Award, as well as a third place finish in the NL CY Young Award race.

Last year, Jose posted an even more impressive 2.44 ERA and a 2.18 FIP in 51 1/3 innings. If you take out his May 9th start against the Padres in which his elbow betrayed him, Fernandez owned a 1.74 ERA and a 1.68 FIP in 46 2/3 innings.

After missing 13 months, Jose Fernandez returned to the mound on July 2nd for the Miami Marlins and has been damn good since his return. In two starts, Jose has struck out 15 and not walked a single hitter in 13 innings of work. He owns a 2.08 ERA and a 1.77 FIP, with much of that damage coming in his very first inning back on the mound.

Fernandez is repped by super agent Scott Boras and is unlikely to sign a team friendly extension in the mold of Yelich, so that, as well as the Tommy John surgery likely impact his trade value.

Still, in Fernandez, the Marlins have a great asset, one they are unlikely to use in a trade anytime in the near future.

Next: Giancarlo Stanton

Jun 24, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) connects for a solo home run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the second inning at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

#21: Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami
Controlled Through: 2020
Guaranteed Dollars: $318.5 million
2016 ZIPS WAR: +5.5
Five year ZIPS WAR: +26.2
Last Year: #15

There might not be a player on this list who would generate a wider range of responses from the other teams if he was actually made available for trade. Given the sheer size of the long-term commitment, it’s likely that at least a few franchises would have no interest, while those with some financial flexibility and the incentive to win now would be thrilled to acquire the game’s premier slugger. This isn’t a guy who would appeal to everyone, but to those with interest, it would be intense. The key to determining Stanton’s trade value really turns on the odds of him exercising his opt-out clause; if you’re convinced he’s going to use it to re-enter free agency after the 2020 season, then an acquiring team would only be on the hook for $100 million over the next five years, a pittance for one of the game’s superstars; even low-revenue clubs would sign up to take Stanton at 5/$100m. But if his continual string of injuries begin to break his body down prematurely — or the injuries are simply a sign that a guy this size might not be able to stay on the field regularly in his thirties — then the remaining $218 million over the final seven years could be a very stiff tax to pay for getting his the remainder of his productive years. If you think the injuries are no big deal and he’s going to remain a +5 win player for the next four or five years, you can give up the moon to get him and not worry about the end of the contract, because he’ll void it for you. But there’s a lot of risk in that bet, and if he keeps getting hurt, then he’s probably not worth trading a lot of good assets for. Both the risk and reward are quite high, so I’ve ended up placing him here, though your own risk aversion might dictate that he be 10 spots higher or not on the list at all, with nearly any ranking in between being justifiable. He’s just a very hard asset to value.

Even with his expensive 13-year extension, Giancarlo Stanton still remains the best Marlins player, as well as the most valuable trade chip for the Marlins. Only problem being that a team would have to have deep pockets, both in terms of cash and prospects, to acquire Stanton, if he were to want out of Miami. This is what limits his trade value from being top 20 in baseball.

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