Aug 14, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter (13) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run off of Miami Marlins relief pitcher Mike Dunn (40) at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Just as was the case with closer Steve Cishek, the Miami Marlins should have moved on from left hander Mike Dunn this past off-season or last July at the trade deadline. Instead, the team rewarded the reliever with a 2-year contract extension and he’s seen his numbers dip.
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Dunn, while maintaining a similar strikeout rate to the two years previous, has seen a decline in his control and is allowing more home runs, despite the dimensions of Marlins Park. Much of the damage done to Dunn this season has come from right-handed hitters.
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In 2015, right-handed hitters own a .268/.355/.500 slash line with a .366 wOBA, and a 4.88 FIP in 19 2/3 innings of work. Lefties have hit for a .227/.310/.338 slash line with a .289 wOBA, and a 2.91 xFIP.
Last season, the right-handed hitters owned a .305 wOBA compared to a .269 wOBA by left-handed hitters. In 2013, right handers owns a .281 wOBA compared to a .252 wOBA against lefties.
Dunn has regressed each of the past two seasons against left handed hitters, but is still getting them out at a decent rate. He however has lost his ability to retire right handers, even as the Marlins continue to run him out equally against the two.
With his two-year extension, Dunn is in line to earn $3.45 million in 2016. That is a steep price for a low-budget team to be spending on a L.O.G.G.Y. He still would hold value for a post-season team looking to sure up their bullpen.
While the return on Dunn is not expected to be large, as it would have been last year, the Marlins might be best off ditching his contract right now and allocating that elsewhere this off-season.
Next: Bryan Morris