Aug 9, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Ichiro Suzuki (51) celebrates with manager Dan Jennings (26) after scoring a run against the Atlanta Braves in the ninth inning at Turner Field. The Marlins defeated the Braves 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
The July 31st trade deadline may have already passed, but that does not mean that teams cannot still pull off trades. The July 31st trade deadline is considered the non-waiver trade deadline, but trades can still be made the rest of the season, but the steps are just a little more complicated.
A team like the Miami Marlins can still reap the benefits of being a selling team, as the team has assets they can unload to a contending team. The only catch is that player has to be traded before August 31st or they’ll no longer be post-season eligible.
If Marlins fans remember, the waiver deadline served as an ally to the then Florida Marlins in 2003. On August 30th of 2003, Mike Lowell broke his hand and would be sidelined for the rest of the season, save for the last game of the season.
With the team in pursuit of a playoff spot, the Marlins dealt right-handers Denny Bautista and Don Levinski to the Baltimore Orioles for Jeff Conine, on August 31st. With Lowell sidelined, Miguel Cabrera moved from left field to third base, with Conine taking over left field.
This trade eventually led to this infamous play in Marlins history:
While any trade made before August 31st won’t have the same impact for the Miami Marlins in 2015 or likely 2016, they can still look to move 4 players that could bring back a return that could help them down the road. Those 4 players are
Aug 12, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins third baseman Martin Prado (14) hits an RBI single during the sixth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Martin Prado
The Miami Marlins were reluctant to move Martin Prado at the trade deadline, looking for a big return for his services. The same will hold true now, as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro feels the team would only move Prado for a big return.
If a team like #Yankees is willing to overpay, #Marlins are certainly open to waiver trade of Martin Prado
He suggested Greg Bird to a fan on Twitter, but that is a ridiculous price tag, something the New York Yankees would have to be absolutely crazy to even entertain. Bird, a 22-year old first base prospect, made his debut with the Yanks last week and was rated as the 3rd best prospect in the Yankees farm system by John Sickels prior to the season.
Bird is not a realistic get for the Miami Marlins and if that’s what they ask for, Prado is likely to remain with the team. However, if the team has a realistic expectation for a Prado price tag, a deal is more likely, though it would have to be a bit of an overpay, as Prado is under team control for a reasonable salary next season.
On the season, Prado owns a .272/.314/.353 slash line with a 83 wRC+. His offense grades out 17% worse than league average, which looks even worse at an offensive dependent third base position. Prado owns a 0.6 fWAR in 389 plate appearances and ZiPS does not see him reaching replacement level (2.0 fWAR) for the season.
Prado has seen his power sapped (.081 ISO) this season, which has hurt his value a lot. The majority of his value lies on the defense he provides at the hot corner.
Maybe Martin Prado could benefit from the Marlins potentially moving the fences in for the 2016 season, but more than likely his best days are behind him. Rather than overvalue his importance in the clubhouse, the team should be open to moving Prado and giving Derek Dietrich a shot at third base, as he holds some upside.
Next: Mike Dunn
Aug 14, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter (13) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run off of Miami Marlins relief pitcher Mike Dunn (40) at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Mike Dunn
Just as was the case with closer Steve Cishek, the Miami Marlins should have moved on from left hander Mike Dunn this past off-season or last July at the trade deadline. Instead, the team rewarded the reliever with a 2-year contract extension and he’s seen his numbers dip.
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Dunn, while maintaining a similar strikeout rate to the two years previous, has seen a decline in his control and is allowing more home runs, despite the dimensions of Marlins Park. Much of the damage done to Dunn this season has come from right-handed hitters.
In 2015, right-handed hitters own a .268/.355/.500 slash line with a .366 wOBA, and a 4.88 FIP in 19 2/3 innings of work. Lefties have hit for a .227/.310/.338 slash line with a .289 wOBA, and a 2.91 xFIP.
Last season, the right-handed hitters owned a .305 wOBA compared to a .269 wOBA by left-handed hitters. In 2013, right handers owns a .281 wOBA compared to a .252 wOBA against lefties.
Dunn has regressed each of the past two seasons against left handed hitters, but is still getting them out at a decent rate. He however has lost his ability to retire right handers, even as the Marlins continue to run him out equally against the two.
With his two-year extension, Dunn is in line to earn $3.45 million in 2016. That is a steep price for a low-budget team to be spending on a L.O.G.G.Y. He still would hold value for a post-season team looking to sure up their bullpen.
While the return on Dunn is not expected to be large, as it would have been last year, the Marlins might be best off ditching his contract right now and allocating that elsewhere this off-season.
Adam Conley and Brad Hand, who has been much better as a reliever in his career, are well suited to replace Dunn in the bullpen, if needed.
Next: Bryan Morris
Jul 30, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins relief pitcher Bryan Morris (57) throws against the Washington Nationals during the seventh inning at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Bryan Morris
Bryan Morris has been an effective reliever for the Miami Marlins since they acquired him last June. The Marlins traded away their No. 39 competitive balance pick in last year’s draft to acquire the right-handed reliever.
Live Feed class=inline-text id=inline-text-3Miami Marlins make somewhat notable move with Garrett Hampson /
He made the Marlins look smart right away, posting a 0.66 ERA and a 3.03 FIP in 40 2/3 innings. He built much of his value on inducing ground balls and avoiding home runs, something that evaded him in Pittsburgh.
This year, Morris has come back down to earth a bit, but has still been effective, posting a 2.72 ERA and a 3.23 FIP in 46 1/3 innings pitched in 46 appearances in 2015 for the Miami Marlins. He has induced a nearly 60% ground ball rate and further reduced his home run rate this year.
He however is walking nearly a batter more per nine innings and seen a dip in his strikeout numbers. With Morris being arbitration eligible after this season and the general volatility around relief pitchers, the team would be wise to move him before his big payday.
Still, a trade involving Bryan Morris is a lot more likely this off-season than it is now. If Morris were to be put on waivers before August 31st, there’s a good chance he’d get gobbled up by a team just to block him from getting to a team with a better record than their team.
Moving Morris before he starts getting expensive is a good idea though. The Miami Marlins are rich in relief talent in the upper minors, making his loss sting a lot less.
Next: Ichiro Suzuki
Aug 15, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Ichiro Suzuki (51) looks on prior to the game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Ichiro Suzuki
Would the Miami Marlins ever consider dealing outfielder Ichiro Suzuki? This to me seems like an even more of a longshot of happening than a Bryan Morris trade.
Suzuki, while not the same player he was in his prime from 2001 to 2010 with the Seattle Mariners, still provides something that makes him intriguing to major league teams. It was rumored around the trade deadline that the Toronto Blue Jays had some interest in the 41-year old.
Around the trade deadline, Ichiro was among the worst players in baseball, posting a fWAR near -1.0 and a 66 wRC+ at the time. However, since August 4th, Ichiro owns a .316/.386/.421 slash line with a 123 wRC+ in 44 plate appearances.
In that span, Ichiro has walked more than he has struck out, hit 2 triples and for a .105 ISO. He has been worth a 0.3 fWAR in that span, which is tied for the third best mark on the Miami Marlins in that span.
These past two weeks certainly have brought Ichiro’s value up and with the 41-year old soon headed out of baseball, he could certainly be itching for chance to win a world series. He could make some sense for a contending team, looking for a 4th or 5th outfielder.
It would be wise for the Marlins to look to see if they could get anything of value for Ichiro, as he’ll be a free agent at season’s end. If the Marlins want him back as he pursues 3,000 hits in 2016, the team could then look to bring him back at that point.
While a trade of Ichiro could upset the fanbase, the team could sell Ichiro on the deal as being mutually beneficial, as they improve their roster for next season and Ichiro makes a what could be final run at his chance to win a ring.
This would allow the Marlins a bigger opportunity to see how Derek Dietrich handles the outfield job, as his chances will be lessened once Giancarlo Stanton and Chrisitan Yelich return from the disabled list over the next couple of weeks.
Trading Ichiro Suzuki before the end of the month would not be popular move among the fanbase, but that doesn’t mean it would not be a shrewd move for the franchise.
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