Miami Marlins: Reasons for Optimism in 2016

The Outfield 

First, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich will more likely than not start 2016 as the Marlins starting outfield. The Marlins front office may still well trade Ozuna but at the moment I’m operating on the assumption that he will be the Marlins center fielder next April.

At this point we know what Yelich and Stanton will give us. Yelich is one of the best young hitters in baseball with great plate discipline and pitch recognition and very good defense in left field although he is a little more limited when playing in center. Stanton is the best slugger in baseball right now racking up 181 homers in only 708 games played and is projected according to Steamer to slash .265/.346/.606 with 44 HR.

The question as always is can Stanton actually play enough to make the monster season we have been waiting for a reality.  If Stanton actually plays in 145+ games in 2016 it is very reasonable to think that he could hit 45+ homers given that the Marlins are bringing the fences in at Marlins Park.

Ozuna is actually the most intriguing player in the Marlins outfield because of the very uncommon set of skills he brings to the table So far in his career keeping in mind of how raw he was coming in to his rookie year in 2013, Ozuna had only played 403 minor league games and only 10 at AA.

Ozuna showed us flashes of what he could do in 2014 putting a 115 wRC+ and hitting 23 HR while putting up 10 DRS playing center field.  That is uncommon enough that it should be noticed.

Although he struggled in 2015 and got sent down to the New Orleans under suspicious circumstances he proved that despite the small sample size he could be the hitter showed in 2014 putting up a 115 wRC+ and 33 XBH after being recalled to the Major Leagues in August.

2015 was a perfect storm of disappointment when it came to the Marlins outfield trio and it would be shocking if they couldn’t redeem themselves and be key to this team making a run at .500

J.T Realmuto 

Second, J.T. Realmuto seems to be an above average catcher both at the plate and behind it. In his first full Major League season Realmuto slashed .259/.290/.406 on an 86 wRC+ and 6 DRS which added up 1.8 WAR, Major League average is 2.0 WAR.

As a rookie Realmuto put up a wRC+ of 86 which was right below Salvador Perez and twelfth among all catchers with at least 400 PA. 6 defensive runs saved  made Realmuto the third best catcher with at least 1000 innings caught behind only Wilson Ramos and Yadier Molina.

Realmuto could improve more offensively by trying to be a better and more selective hitter alongside a fair and expected regression towards the mean from what was a very low BABIP of .285 last year.  If Realmuto walks more and has better luck with balls in play there is no reason to believe that he can’t slash .275/.320/.425 and be one of the better two-way catchers in baseball.

Martin Prado 

Third, the Marlins still have Martin Prado, Mr. Consistent on the roster for next year. I know that Martin Prado isn’t exactly exciting but he is still until further notice one of the most steady and underrated performers in all of baseball.

Prado does so many things well and he has aged so gracefully so far that it would be shocking if he fell off a cliff this year.   Prado will be going into his age-32 season in 2015 and he has put up a very gentle decline slope since the 2013 season putting up wRC+s of 104, 103 and 100 the last three years.   One of the first signs that a player’s skills is deteriorating is an increase in strikeout rate which hasn’t shown up so far with Prado.

Alongside a very solid bat Prado’s steady defense at third base and a lot of versatility tends to help his case as being a valuable piece for the team in 2016 and come the trading deadline.

The Bullpen and Conclusion 

The Bullpen should also be a strength for the Marlins.  Carter Capps, AJ Ramos, Nick Wittgren and Cody Ege should all provide very necessary backing for what will be a shaky rotation and a rock solid eighth and ninth inning combination.

Bullpens are usually the last team for a team that was “good” to become “contenders” which is funny considering the Marlins overall situation.  The position players are a good group overall, they have three legitimate stars in the outfielder, a very good young catcher and a solid veteran presence at the hot corner.  Hechavarria and Gordon are a very good double play combination and although Dee’s 2015 offensive production was a mirage he will still be a 3 win player going forward if his defense was real.

Bour proved that he was replacement level hitter and he would be best served by the Marlins signing a platoon mate for him.  Bour isn’t great but I don’t see why he couldn’t put a Major League average season if the Marlins signed Mark Reynolds to hit against left handed pitching.

There is reason for optimism and if everything goes well and they sign a free agent pitcher they could possibly make a run at .500 but realistically it will be much more interesting to watch the Marlins for individual performances than actual team success.