Miami Marlins Paul Clemens Analysis
Turns out Ichiro’s 4,257th professional hit wasn’t the only Marlins milestone I was getting to watch in person last Wednesday at Petco Park. I was also getting to watch what could easily be Justin Nicolino‘s last start as a Marlin in 2016.
Fair enough if you want to argue only one of these is worth committing to my scrapbook; fairer still if you want to know who in their right mind would have a scrapbook of random baseball memories. But nevertheless, the Miami Marlins decided this weekend to demote the struggling Nicolino, and replace him with the next man up down on the farm.
Time to meet Paul Clemens.
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And do we mean meet. Because if you’ve heard of this guy prior to yesterday’s announcement of the move, the only logical explanation is that you’re a season ticket holder for the New Orleans Zephyrs. Send beignets! Or perhaps you followed the Houston Astros in 2013 or 2014, his last and only MLB stretch prior to the present. His most notable professional moment to date would be that he was one of four players the Atlanta Braves traded to Houston for one and a half years of Michael Bourn.
Even the most casual Marlins fan can probably name at least one other pitcher you might have expected to see tapped for this opportunity instead. And if you’re reading this site, you probably came up with at least four. Before we move too far off the subject of “Inconsequential Trades Involving the Astros”, I’d hazard a guess Jarred Cosart was the name most were expecting to be drawn from the AAA hat. So Clemens wasn’t even the most likely ex-Astro to be starting Monday’s Marlins-Rockies finale.
But upon closer inspection, he was actually the most logical choice.
There’s two sides to this, one grounded in pitching practicality, and the other in midsummer fantasy. Let’s take a look.
Next: Why He's Better Than The Others
This year at New Orleans, Clemens has put up a 6-4 record to go along with a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. And we’ll start with that WHIP, for while not great, it blows Cosart out of the water; despite a just barely sub 4.00 ERA, Cosart is still struggling with command. He beats Jose Urena out easily as well, as “the other Jose” brings marks of 4.76 and 1.37 to the table. Kendrys Flores is better, but is also working back from injury still. Chris Narveson? Well, we’ll come back to him; in any event, he’s a known quality at this point, and that 8.64 MLB ERA in 2016 is hard to forget.
Clemens has also been extremely effective recently. In his last four starts, he’s allowed just 11 H and 7 ER across 23 2/3 IP. He’s lost once in eight starts dating back to May 4th. In two of his last three, he held the opposition scoreless. There’s reason for optimism here.
And not just by the numbers. He was signed as a free agent in late November, one month after the Marlins landed pitching guru Jim Benedict. So it’s reasonable to expect that Benedict saw something he liked in Clemens, and might have made enough tweaks and corrections to the journeyman righty’s delivery that he can be effective at the MLB level. In Jim We Trust.
Next: Or He's Just A Placeholder- In A Good Way
The other reason that we’re seeing a Paul Clemens type, and not some variation of Cosart/Urena/Narveson is that the front office is just looking at him as a placeholder until they make a real roster upgrade in July. Or more to the point, get a better feel for if they will be buyers or sellers in the midsummer trade marketplace.
The Marlins woke up this morning in second place in the NL East, and securely in possession of one of the National League’s two Wild Card spots. They’re a season best five games over .500, a claim they could last make one day before Jose Fernandez suffered his season ending, Tommy John requiring injury in 2014. A win tonight requires a trip back to the 2012 standings. While not necessarily saying a lot, this is probably the best team the Fish have fielded since 2010. At minimum.
Of course, that could easily change. If the club falls back behind the pack, and especially if they fall below .500 to stay, then eyes will shift to what is best for the 2017 model. Those plans will very likely include determining for good and for all if Cosart/Urena/Nicolino are worth counting on. But whether Miami contends this year or not, none of those three names are ready right now to help consistently at the MLB level. Letting Nicolino and the rest get their footing in the minors makes all the sense in the world. Gain some confidence, shutdown some inferior competition, pad those stat lines and work on their craft.
And if Miami is still in the race in late July, you have chips to deal.
That the farm system is bereft of a bevy of commodities is no secret. The Marlins spent big prospect wise for 2015, and the only move that could be called a success is currently serving out his PED suspension. Top remaining prospect Tyler Kolek is out for the season with an arm injury. So the team needs to put some window dressing on their MLB level arms. Especially in the case of Nicolino; if he can log a month of minor league starts in line with his career numbers at that level, he arguably becomes the best trade chip Michael Hill can place on the table.
Cosart is far more likely to regain control at New Orleans than in Miami, and once he does, probably needs a scenery change anyway; he thinks he’s an MLB starting pitcher, and Marlins brass continues to politely and correctly disagree. Urena could still have upside, but needs a lot more refining.
Narveson is in the unique spot of being a two-way trade piece. He’s actually been close to excellent over the last month, to the point some team might be willing to role the dice on him as a bullpen option. My money is on the Marlins brass not wanting to risk making him look unattractive; whether they end up buying or selling, he’s going next month.
So until we know where we stand, we have Paul Clemens. He’ll keep us in games- until we either move to do a lot better, or start prepping for next season.