FRexit: It Was One Game, Marlins Fans. Let’s Relax.

Miami Marlins fans were mostly mixed when the team announced a trade that would send out-of-nowhere prospect Chris Paddack to the San Diego Padres in exchange for closer Fernando Rodney. Some fans were excited by the team making moves, and Rodney’s near-perfect season didn’t hurt. Other fans were worried that the Fish had given up on a high-upside pitching prospect for a 39-year-old reliever due for regression.

Fernando Rodney had allowed just one earned run all season when he was acquired by the Marlins. The one earned run he allowed could easily have been scored as an unearned run, as Padres first baseman Wil Myers could (and maybe should) have made a play on the ground ball that drove in the run. Still, Rodney’s numbers were sparking when he first put on a Marlins uniform.

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In his first outing as a Fish, Rodney tossed a scoreless inning with a walk and two strikeouts. That was good. In his next outing, two days later, he threw a perfect inning, facing three batters and retiring all three. That was also good. The next day, he appeared in his third Marlins game. He got three outs again, but this time he wasn’t able to do so before the Mets scored two runs on two hits and a walk. Not good. His ERA for the season skyrocketed to…0.85. He then appeared the next day again, pitching an inning against the Mets and allowing a solo home run to Alejandro de Aza, again ballooning his ERA to…1.10.

In 2016, Fernando Rodney has appeared in 32 games and thrown 32 2/3 innings. He has allowed earned runs to score in three of those appearances. Three. He has allowed a total of four earned runs. Four.

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Chris Paddack may indeed turn out to be an ace right handed starter. He may also never throw a pitch that counts in a Major League Baseball game. Fernando Rodney has thrown plenty of pitches that count, and he makes the Marlins bullpen significantly better for this season as well as next season. He is not a simple rental, as he is signed for a very reasonable amount of money (plus some incentives and such which still keep the contract a more than fair value). You have to give up value to get value, and while Paddack’s upside is much higher than Rodney’s, he also has a much lower floor than the already-a-major-league-pitcher Fernando Rodney.

Now, the Marlins definitely need another starter (or two) before the deadline, because it does not matter how good the bullpen is when they have to pitch four innings every night or when starters cannot deliver them a lead. Still, the Rodney move, as the first move in a series of several, is a great one. If it is the only move the team makes, however, then it is a waste of a high-upside prospect.

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