MLB Trade Deadline: Which Miami Marlins Are Untouchable?

Last weekend, we released an article on the site suggesting that the Miami Marlins should be calling up the Chicago White Sox to talk trade.  The focus of this was about James Shields, a move I still heartily endorse.  But in the process of making that point, we jokingly teased that a Chris Sale trade could be considered, although the odds would be long on it considering the goal is to compete for the playoffs in 2016.

Later that day, news broke that the Marlins had actually spoken to the White Sox…about Sale.  

This was of immense amusement to me as even the suggestion the Fish could put together a compelling offer for the White Sox ace took some ribbing on social media, and all subsequent reporting on it or any other Marlins rumor has been qualified with comments on the poor state of the team’s farm system.  For some type of conversation obviously took place, and further, it would seem obvious that the conversation centered on an approach Miami’s front office has previously said they weren’t considering: dealing away from the MLB roster.

More from Marlins News

• Miami Marlins rejected Boston‘s trade offer
• Miami Marlins are pursuing Michael Conforto
• Miami Marlins need to spend to win
• Miami Marlins can’t afford to botch this trade
• Miami Marlins news: the New York Mets are a risky threat

Let’s be perfectly clear about this- the Marlins can trade for anyone they want to.

They just have to be willing to part with Jose Fernandez to do it.

Clearly, that’s not a move designed to help the 2016 club do much.  But it did get me to thinking.  Just who is truly untouchable in this organization?  This is the most talented Marlins team in years, one good enough to not only have one of the two NL Wild Card slots in their possession, but also to lead the entire Senior Circuit in hits and batting average.  Yet runs remain extremely hard to come by, there’s some depth in the infield, and the need for another quality starting pitcher has been well documented.  That need has been somewhat addressed with the Andrew Cashner trade, but will return at the end of the season.  In short, there’s plenty of good pieces on display at Marlins Park, but the jury is still out on whether they fit together well enough to challenge the best teams in the bigs.

This is a team with a two-year window to make a serious challenge for a title.  After next season, Giancarlo Stanton‘s salary escalates significantly and Fernandez will be a year from free-agency.  That’s the make or break or point.  Throw in the fact that the NL East should be much more competitive by then, and 2018 onwards sees a difficult road that will almost certainly include some rebuilding.

More from Marlin Maniac

• Miami Marlins rejected Boston‘s trade offer
• Miami Marlins are pursuing Michael Conforto
• Miami Marlins need to spend to win
• Miami Marlins One-Year Wonder 1B
• Miami Marlins can’t afford to botch this trade

So, in light of that view, what follows is a rundown of the players deemed most essential to getting the Marlins that third playoff trip, if not a third title.  Marcell Ozuna is great, but would you move him if it meant Zach Wheeler joined the team this winter?  J.T. Realmuto and Christian Yelich are having breakout seasons and could be fixtures, but do you think the team would have been better off if they made that trade with Tampa for Jake Odorizzi or Matt Moore?

A couple notes before we start. Firstly, the first draft of this was prepped prior to the Friday morning trade with San Diego.  I made no changes to the list.  Secondly, I’m not counting players who either aren’t eligible to be traded right now, or are free agents at season’s end.  So no Braxton Garrett, and no Martin Prado.  Otherwise, they’d be the first two names you’d see.  Hope you enjoy.

Next: Untouchable # 5

Untouchable # 4: Tom Koehler 

Please keep reading.  I promise you won’t disagree as much with the other slides!

Putting Tom Koehler on this list is all about understanding his value to the Marlins organization specifically, and how different that is from his value to the rest of league. Consider how this season has played out, what Michael Hill just had to give up for a couple months of Andrew Cashner.  It was worth it, but only because this team needs a playoff run to gain any traction with a fickle South Florida market; they absolutely overpaid.

In Miami, Koehler is a clubhouse leader and a veteran presence.  He’s already tied for 10th all-time in wins on the franchise list, and could realistically crack the Top 5 by the end of a full 2017 season.  He’s effective, and everything you want from a back of the rotation starter.  In short, if he played for San Diego, he’d be a Marlin today anyway.

Adam Conley almost got this spot.  The reason he didn’t is that he has upside. No. 2 starter upside.  We’ve seen Koehler’s ceiling.  The league has too.  No one, during regular (non Deadline) market conditions will give the Marlins something as valuable to them for these next two years as Koehler will be.  Conley though?  He might be great one day, he’s streaky good right now.  But that’s probably a year or two away.  If some rebuilding team offers a more finished product, you take it and stick it right behind Fernandez at the top of the rotation.

And then a couple days later, @TKREFRESH22 will be there to give you a solid day’s work.

Next: Untouchable # 3

Untouchable # 3: Christian Yelich 

Between now and the end of the 2018 season, Christian Yelich will make just under $12 million dollars.  That’s stupid value for a player that is just finding his power stroke, can steal double-digit bases, and play Gold Glove caliber defense.  It would also be an upset if he doesn’t hit .300 or better in each of those seasons, starting with this one.  He’s a force, in the field and at the plate.

Basically, he’s already producing at an All-Star level, and is just scratching the surface on his talent.  Put another way, we are probably closer to having already seen Stanton’s best season than we we are to having seen Yelich’s.  And he’s so cheap. That can’t be stressed enough for this Marlins team.  Even in the second half of the contract, for what he’d be offering opposite Stanton in the lineup, he’s a bargain.

Next: Untouchable # 2

Untouchable # 2: Giancarlo Stanton  

Okay, not a lot of new and enlightened analysis to offer here.  And if you’re thinking putting a guy with a $325 million contract on a list of “Untouchables” is just a bit pointless, I can definitely see your argument.

None of that changes the fact he’s one of the top talents in the game though, a lineup transforming threat that impacts everything opposing pitchers do.  His immense power is a huge fan draw; even players on the team he’s facing that day will come out to watch him take batting practice.  The title of “Home Run Derby” champ carries some cache too.  Between that and the existence of that player opt-out so many are eager to point out, he’s still worth a massive haul.

He’s amazing.  A bargain this year, and reasonably priced in the next.  Then, yes, he’ll be one of the highest paid players in baseball.  But in terms of that two-year title lens I’m viewing the Marlins organization through, the rest of those years don’t really matter here.  They’re not contending without him, and they clearly intend to contend. He’ll be slugging away here for at least three more seasons, and hopefully much longer.  He only gets moved if everything else goes wrong, for multiple years, and the Dodgers come calling.

Next: The Most Untouchable

Untouchable # 1: Elliot Ness Jose Fernandez  

Sorry, had to get one Untouchables joke in the article. Obviously just kidding on the Elliot Ness bit- we all know Sean Connery would have been the answer.

Of course it’s Jose Fernandez.  There’s one pitcher who’s unanimously viewed as better in the game today, and that’s Clayton Kershaw.  If you’ve ranked anyone else but Kershaw ahead of him, than you’re either wrong or thinking total innings projections for your fantasy baseball lineup. The Marlins are essentially on cruise control any time he starts.  Nothing else need be said about his excellence.  This club could possibly absorb the loss of Stanton.  June comes to mind if you want an example.  They’re dead in the water without Jose.

He’s also the most likely player on this list to be traded, eventually.  Fernandez projects to command a tremendous salary, one capable of shattering the ranking record for a pitcher.  The universe in which the Marlins are able to sign him to an extension is one in which one of these two events happen:

1. He reinjures himself.
2. Marlins fans actually start showing up, Loria aside, to follow this team for the next two seasons, as a result of deep playoff runs in consecutive years with the promise of more to come.

Okay, maybe that’s technically three events.  Even then, the odds are slim.

The real story here is that I see him as absolutely spending the entire 2017 season in a Marlins uniform.  Between the spotlight of that upcoming All-Star Game and the promise the team has shown so far in 2016, he’s the definition of untouchable.  This is the best chance, perhaps the last chance, to wrest control of the market and change public opinion about the way this team is run.  Even in 2018, the last year he could be traded, he’d be worth a farm system.  There’s no rush to deal him.

And there you have it.  Everyone else, could see them moved at any time.  Everyone else, as good as they are, would be worth moving if it meant bringing a Top 20 starting pitcher into the rotation or adding a patient slugger who can hit with RISP.

While the window for any of these guys moving in the next twenty-four hours has probably closed, I think we’re in the most fascinating offseason since 2012.

Let’s just hope that this offseason is a bit better executed. And starts a bit later than usual.