Miami Marlins: Top 5 Free Agent Targets For 2017

As the calendar turns to October, and we all settle in for another exciting MLB postseason, it seems like a perfect time to start looking ahead to who the Miami Marlins might make a run at in free agency for the 2017 campaign.

Obviously, as the Marlins aren’t currently playing, there’s work to be done if 2017 is to end any differently for a franchise thirteen years removed from their last postseason birth.

That much was true a month ago, when the writing on the wall started to show that the team wasn’t going to overcome the Justin Bour and Giancarlo Stanton injuries that combined to make August a nightmare for a team that had shown so much promise over the first two-thirds of the season. The existence of Andrew “Don’t Shave Me Bro” Cashner didn’t help much either.

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And then the Jose Fernandez tragedy turned needed tinkering into massive overhauling.

So how do the Marlins get out of this, infusing talent into a talented roster that wasn’t quite talented enough…that just lost a once in a generation talent that was the face of the franchise and well on his way to becoming the face of baseball? What do you fix? Where do you start?

Before Fernandez, the primary problem was the same: starting pitching. Cashner was brought in to bring No. 2 to No. 3 level pitching, and spent his time getting consistently and significantly outperformed by Tom Koehler. Without Fernandez, the goal would seem to be the acquisition of a No. 1. A new ace.

Unfortunately, this is the worst free agent pitching market in recent memory. Sure, the only true replacement for a pitcher of Fernandez’ ilk would be Clayton Kershaw. But there’s not a free-agent name out there that would even be a lock for No. 2 hurler on any of the ten 2016 playoff teams.

Which leaves the Marlins best strategy to be addition by subtraction. They’re going to need to move a position regular for a top of the rotation arm, sign the average pitcher they would have signed anyway, and then aggressively replace that position player they dealt with some serious offensive muscle.

Teams are going to score on the 2017 Marlins. The 2017 Marlins are just going to have to get better at outscoring them.

The following are five names I think make the most sense for the Fish to target, provided circumstances break that way; both talent and circumstances are broken down in each case.

These are high upside, high reward moves, and in all cases expensive by Marlins standards. But it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see the front office make one notable splash this offseason.

Fingers crossed it’s one of these.

Free Agent Target # 5: Ian Desmond, Shortstop/Outfielder 

Circumstance: Adeiny Hechavarria traded. 

You can make an argument for Desmond being an option if Marcell Ozuna is the player traded away as well, but I think there are better options out there in terms of outfield talent.

Hechavarria might be the best defensive shortstop in the NL, but he regressed big time at the plate this past season. And while this front office and myself alike put a huge premium on defense being the priority from the shortstop position, there are likely better marriages of defensive and offensive balance out there.

Enter Desmond.

No defensive slouch himself, he’d have the potential to have a transformative impact on the Marlins lineup, giving it five regulars with 20-plus HR ability.  And it shouldn’t go unmentioned that the Marlins have an ace up their sleeve in infield coach Perry Hill- any infielder they add will see his defensive value improve under his watch.

This would depend on Hechavarria being the centerpiece of a package of players sent out for a promising arm, one either ready for the majors or that has been there already. While replacing him with Desmond would be a great move, it’s also one I view as the least likely. To me, Hechavarria is the most likely player to be dealt, but I have a sneaking suspicion Miguel Rojas might be your Opening Day shortstop. A power threat he is not, but with regular at bats, he just might represent a twenty point bump in average with only a moderate drop in defensive range.

Shifting Dee Gordon and starting Derek Dietrich at second could be in play as well.

Free Agent Target # 4: Mark Trumbo, Outfielder/First Baseman 

Circumstance: Marcell Ozuna traded. 

Spoiler alert. Three of these five options either directly involve or consider the possibility of Marcell Ozuna being the Marlins player that plays for another team in 2017. He completely rebounded and resurrected his standing from 2015, even after a rough second half brought his batting average back down to just above his career average. Plus, thanks to that service time manipulation last year, he remains readily affordable and controllable. The power returned, the defensive focus was back, and he was an All-Star.

But, with the game on the line, you’re probably picking at least three Marlins you’d rather have taking that decisive swing than Ozuna. If you’re not running from first to third, he doesn’t scare you.

Mark Trumbo does.

Putting that kind of muscle behind Christian Yelich and Stanton would set up a veritable Marlins Murderer’s Row of power, with the potential for 100 HRs coming from just the heart of the order alone. Trumbo does sport a lower batting average than Marcell, but with RISP, he was a .285 hitter last season.

Just as importantly, for his career, he fairs about the same against righties and lefties alike. Which makes him a perfect option to slide over from left field to first base on days the Marlins face a top lefty starter, solving the Justin Bour platoon issue. Ichiro would just get a start on those days, which in a one day sample size, would probably be Miami’s optimum lineup anyway.

The ability for Trumbo, and Desmond too for that matter, to play multiple positions is a huge boon for a team that had no small share of injuries in 2016. Particularly at first, where Bour missed nearly two months of time. Adding Trumbo is the perfect backdoor way of providing depth there, while still committing to the cheaper and promising Bour at the position.

Ozuna will net a far better return than Bour, and deservedly so. Last year at this time I was proposing the Marlins go after a Zach Wheeler type player, and really Zach Wheeler in particular. The same goes for this season; the only difference is that Ozuna is far more valuable this time around.

Free Agent Target # 3: Wilson Ramos, Catcher 

Circumstance: J.T. Realmuto Traded 

This is the scenario I’m least interested in seeing come to pass. Realmuto is just too much fun to watch, and too ascendant of a defensive catcher, to readily want to see shipped away. He’s as close to a five tool guy as you’re going to get at the catcher position. He’s not even arbitration eligible until 2018, and won’t be a free agent until a year after the next election.

But with only one season of doing it all under his belt, it’s possible that this is high as his value gets. And if someone with an extra starting pitcher feels the same way, catcher might be the most replaceable position on the free agent market.

Wilson Ramos is the guy Miami should go after if they go that route.

The track record says he’s a reliable source of 10 to 20 HRs, and he’s a career .281 hitter with RISP. The baserunning wheels aren’t there, but he’s probably a better overall catcher behind the plate than Realmuto presently is. Like Realmuto, he also only has one season of .300 plus hitting to his credit. But unlike Realmuto, Ramos is poised to cash in on his 2016 success. He might even come a little cheaper than he would have otherwise, coming off his injury.

In many ways, they’re the same player. This is purely about the lack of a pitcher worth spending the money on being available on the open market.

If he gets his desired release, Jonathan Lucroy would be a solid Plan B.

Free Agent Target # 2: Aroldis Chapman, Closer/Better Shutdown Lefty Than Mike Dunn 

Circumstance: What You Do When There Are No Good Starting Pitchers 

This will be both the hardest one to pull off and the first one the Marlins will attempt.

Aroldis Chapman is a force of nature. His career ERA is 2.08, and he’s a lefty. Perfectly built to shut down the Bryce Harpers and Nick Markakises of the world. He’s the game’s most dominant reliever. Every team in baseball could use him, and two of the top competitors for his services will be two of the richest teams in the game.

More from Marlin Maniac

• Miami Marlins news: Another target gone
• Why didn’t the Miami Marlins sign JDM?
• Miami Marlins rejected Boston‘s trade offer
• Miami Marlins are pursuing Michael Conforto
• Miami Marlins need to spend to win

But Miami can offer one thing neither the Cubs nor the Yankees can. And that’s the fact that Marlins Park sits squarely in Little Havana. The team has tried at least twice in the past to land him via trade. Chapman’s Cuban heritage would seem to be grounds for interest on both sides. He lives in South Florida during the offseason, and it’s a benefit for the front office when fans can make ties to players based on something other than prodigious talent alone.

At the end of the day though, it’s about improving the pitching depth. The bullpen is an overall strength as presently constructed, but why not just go for it and make it the best in the National League? A super pen can carry an average rotation, and would allow the Marlins to feel better about trusting in a Wei-Yin Chen bounceback and in Adam Conley taking the next step. Snag an average innings eater No. 5 starter with No. 4 upside- something there’s plenty of this free agency season- and call it an offseason.