Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves: Three Stories To Watch

Last April, the Miami Marlins did a lot of things to indicate the 2016 season might be different.

The Miami Marlins started the season playing .500 ball against the Nationals, a four-game sweep of the Dodgers, a near no-hitter from Adam Conley, and a winning record in the season’s first month for the first time in five years. But there was one ominous hiccup as well.

The Fish were 0 for 3 against the Atlanta Braves. They would go on to only finish 7-11 against them by year’s end.

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7-11. Great for a Slurpee, terrible for a record against a team that tied for having the second worst record in all of baseball last season. While all losses ultimately count equally, it doesn’t seem over-dramatic at all to cite the Marlins inability to solve the Atlanta Braves as the biggest reason they finished the year below .500. In fact, I’d even go farther, and say it cost them the postseason.

So perhaps it is fitting that the first home series of the season is against the traditional rival. All-time, no NL East team has given Miami more trouble than Atlanta. On the one hand, they are projected to be a much stronger team this year, as the fruits of two years of tanking begin to blossom. On the other, they are 1-5, cellar-dwelling once more. The Marlins will win some and lose some against the Mets and Nationals, that is to be expected.

But if 2017 is going to be different, seeing how Don Mattingly‘s bunch handles things against lesser opponents could be more instructive than any Yoenis Cespedes or Bryce Harper at-bat. Here are the top three stories to watch heading into this short series.

Can The Marlins Finally Solve Nick Markakis? 

It’s not that Freddie Freeman doesn’t rake against Miami, it’s just that I can understand it. He’s one of the game’s ascendant stars. Yes, he performed about 80 points apiece better than his season averages against Marlins pitching in terms of batting average and on-base percentage, but he still finished the 2016 season with a .302 AVG and .400 OBP. Studs will be studs.

But Nick Markakis batted .269 last year. That didn’t stop him from batting .309 against the Marlins, with a .392 OBP.

One man can be pitched around, but not two. Markakis didn’t just put up good counting numbers either. We’re talking significant, lead changing at bats. Solving the Braves starts with solving Markakis, and seeing how he’s opened up the season hot already, I’ll confess to being nervous.

If He Plays, How Will David Phelps Perform? 

It’s also no secret that the Marlins view David Phelps as Andrew Miller-lite, capable of filling multiple roles and handling any situation. It’s certainly how they used him in 2016. Spot-starting, holding, saving- Mr. Phelps was a regular Mission Impossible.

Unless he was playing against the Braves.

Particularly the aforementioned Markaksis, but really, any Brave would do in 2016. Against Atlanta, Phelps put up a line of 0-2, with a 6.48 ERA. No other team gave him more trouble, at least across a comparable amount of IP. Overall, he had an ERA of 2.28 last season; against the Nationals, over 12 IP, he had an ERA of precisely zero. Somehow though, the Braves just had him dead to rights, time and again.

So how will Mattingly handle this one, particularly with the promise of a smarter and more analytically driven bullpen? Will Phelps get the call late in the game, sent in for a 7th or 8th inning against the heart of the Atlanta order? Mattingly could play him at the first opportunity, looking to instill confidence, or view him as all but unusable, saving him for the Mets.

Next: Marlins Opening Day Trivia

That’s a wrap for this series. As it is a two-gamer, all that matters is the split. But I couldn’t think of a sweeter way to start off the homestand than sweeping the Bravos.