Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres: Three Stories To Watch

The Miami Marlins All-Star will look to continue to mash out West. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Marlins All-Star will look to continue to mash out West. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
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San Diego- it means a whale…..of a Miami Marlins hitter is returning to one of his favorite haunts.

See what I did there?

But kidding aside, the Miami Marlins will continue their first West Coast swing of 2017 with a series against the San Diego Padres at beautiful Petco Park. On the one hand, the Padres have played better than expected so far this year, and are an opponent not to be taken lightly. But on the other, they enter play tonight sitting in 29th place in terms of team batting average.

This series presents another opportunity for the Marlins to prove they can reach that next level. To do so they will have to bring their best against top and bottom tier foes alike.

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The clubs played to a draw in 2016 at 3-3 a piece. While not as crushing as the Curse of the Braves, still rankled. Especially considering how handily Miami captured the first series, outscoring San Diego 21-12 at Petco.

Dropping that last series to the Mariners? Understandable, the Mariners have a decent team. Losing to the Padres though? That will burn up any goodwill the Fish earned for themselves with their recent Mets mastery, and twin near no-nos.

Need a reason to take some time away from reading up on next week’s NFL Draft to follow some of this series though? We’ll do you two better. Let’s dive in.

The Miami Marlins All-Star will look to continue to mash out West. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Marlins All-Star will look to continue to mash out West. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /

Watching The Ball Go Boom 

In case you missed it, Giancarlo Stanton hit many, many homers last July at Petco Park. The defending Home Run Derby champion returns to San Diego looking to produce more Statcast fodder. They may as well change it to Stantoncast. Something Stanton has historically been extremely proficient at doing at any ballpark along the Western seaboard.

Stanton started the season with a bit of a cold streak, but has since turned that around and crushed four long balls on the year. Second only to Marcell Ozuna for the team lead.

Throw those two track records together, and Marlins fans will be expecting plenty of fireworks.

However, it’s not just Stanton that warrants watching for power production in this series. While the Padres might well be one of the worst hitting teams in baseball so far this year.

They do sit squarely in the Top 10 in terms of total HRs. Considering the extent to which the long ball has hurt the Marlins pitching staff, reining in that tendency to allow the big fly will be just as key to victory. Mixing the ability for the Padres to smack homers and the Marlins pitchers inability to place the ball, may be a cause for concern.

Will Miami Marlins pitcher Tom Koehler rebound or regress? Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Will Miami Marlins pitcher Tom Koehler rebound or regress? Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

Which Tom Koehler Shows Up 

There are two ways the Miami Marlins can look at Tom Koehler‘s three starts thus far. Which one proves correct this weekend could go a long way towards indicating what kind of season the club is in for.

On the one hand, Koehler has surrendered 3 ER or less in two of this last three outings. If he keeps that rolling all year, the Fish will be in fine shape.  Even the last start wasn’t a travesty. The biggest issue in that 6-1 loss was the fact the Marlins couldn’t score a run until the 9th inning. Jose Fernandez gave up 5 ER or more in five starts last season, so even the greatest of pitchers can have an off night.

The flip side though is that Koehler has, in most respects, has gotten progressively worse every time out this season. Whether it’s in terms of ERs, or even merely base hits, the line score has been increasingly less impressive.

So, while it’s still way too early in the season to make snap judgements, this Sunday finale start for Koehler could be a tipping point performance. Then again, I might just really want the Marlins to win on my birthday.

The Miami Marlins might just have a shorter leash in store for strong fielding, weak hitting Adeiny Hechavarria. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Marlins might just have a shorter leash in store for strong fielding, weak hitting Adeiny Hechavarria. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

Will Hechavarria Hit?

Lastly, the Miami Marlins will be trotting out their full strength lineup for the first time this season Friday night. That in itself is a story to track. But considering the time the staff here at Marlin Maniac has taken to discuss the shortstop position of late, I’m going to direct your attention to one man: Adeiny Hechavarria.

Player A: .200 BA, 1 RBI, .238 OBP

Player B: .143 BA, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .133 OBP

Player C: .289 BA, 2 RBI, 1 SB, .364 OBP

Unfortunately, the Marlins defensive wizard is the first player on this list. At the plate, the team has gotten far more dramatic impact from the combination of the other two players. J.T. Riddle, Player B, is still a raw product, and probably projects more as a serviceable utility guy than a long term answer at the position.

Think more Andy Fox than Alex Gonzalez.

However that rawness means there is upside, and being best suited as a backup player doesn’t mean he couldn’t hit 10 HR either. In Hechavarria’s best year, he hit 5. With Martin Prado and Dee Gordon in the fold, the team probably could handle a drop off in defense if it translates to an uptick in offense.

The real challenge comes from Player C, Miguel Rojas. Riddle put up technically worse production in a comparable number of at bats to Hechavarria. Rojas has blown both out of the water despite having logged twice the number plate appearances.

In fact, Rojas has had only ten less at bats than budding All-Star J.T. Realmuto. Despite having to deal with the distraction of playing multiple infield positions in relief of Hechavarria and Prado alike, Rojas is on track for a career season.

Next: Lineup Changes Coming

At the end of the day, the Marlins are best served by Hechavarria staying in the starting lineup. Keeping Rojas remaining in the super-utility role. Rojas and fellow multi-purpose Marlin Derek Dietrich help the team mask that glaring lack of organizational depth of theirs.

Provided, of course, Hechavarria can return to being at least a .260 hitter. But if 2016 proves to the new normal, that story will change in a hurry. And if it does, expect to see someone stepping up to the trade block.

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