Miami Marlins: History says Don Mattingly's seat is getting hot

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The Miami Marlins have a long track record of knee-jerk reactions: might another be around the corner with a firing of manager Don Mattingly?

History says yes.

Two years ago, the Marlins found themselves having a very similar May to the one they are having right now. The injuries weren’t nearly as bad- something that should unquestionably be taken into account- but the hopes for a productive season were similar. However, the team was scuffling, seemingly inventing new ways to lose night after night. Something had to be done.

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Jeffrey Loria decided the time was right to fire manager Mike Redmond.

We all know how well that worked out. Redmond was replaced with most logical choice for the job: a man who had never managed a baseball game at the professional level. Team GM Dan Jennings was given the reins, and paired with a June injury to Giancarlo Stanton, the bottom dropped out.

A Penchant For Pulling The Trigger

Of course, firing one manager does not make a track record:

Both Jeff Torborg, and current third base coach Fre di Gonzalez were similarly treated to early exits when the Marlins underperformed under their watch. Ozzie Guillen was given the whole 2012 season to disappoint before being terminated, which at least made some sense compared to the 2006 decision to fire Joe Girardi one year into his deal. All he did was win NL Manager of the Year.

But it’s the Torborg firing that matters here. It’s the reason I correctly predicted, to the exact day, the Redmond firing back in 2015. And it’s the reason that somewhere in the darkest corners of Loria’s mind, Mattingly’s seat on the Marlins bench might be starting to warm up. Because when the Marlins gave Torborg his walking papers…they hired Jack Mckeon.

All he did was win the World Series.

Loria has fired four managers since taking over the team in 2002. Five if you want to count Jennings, who was technically dismissed from the front office. The “problem”, and I use the term loosely because the aberration was one of the happiest moments of my life, is that one time it worked out. Really, really well. Spectacularly, intoxicatingly so. So much so that franchise stability at manager has become a secondary consideration ever since. It doesn’t matter that the other three times failed to achieve a pennant, or even a winning season.

The Miami Marlins today

So the big question as we make our way through another disappointing May is: has the lesson finally sunk in or not? If it has, I’m wasting your time. But if it hasn’t…Donnie Baseball is done-zo, and will be fired within the next two weeks.

Let me clarify: I think this would be a bad idea. But I also think that, aside from Ozzie, firing Don Mattingly might just be the most logical dismissal in team history.

What follows is a breakdown of the cases, why and why not, we could see this take place- soon. You decide for yourself which makes the most sense.

Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

Why The Miami Marlins Will Fire Don Mattingly

First off, there’s the Marlins record. We are well on our way to 16-22 territory again. In fact, the 3-3 record needed to get us there over the next six games would be a refreshing change of pace. Every in season firing has been made before the All-Star Break, and two during this same stretch of time.

Nothing is clicking right now. The lineup is changing frequently. One day the starting pitching is terrible, the next the bullpen blows it. Fans are starting to openly question some of the ways in which that bullpen is utilized. Mattingly himself is starting to lose patience as well, having been ejected from two straight games. All warning signs, particularly so for a Marlins skipper.

But lets take a step back for a minute from the on-the-field results, and think big picture: one year from now, by all reports, Jeffrey Loria is no longer going to own a baseball team.

Which means two things:

Why It’s Not Just About The 2017 Miami Marlins

For one, this is his last chance at a winner. Nothing is going to stand in his way of doing that, even money. If he thinks for a moment that firing Mattingly brings the 2017 Miami Marlins closer to the playoffs, he is going to pull the trigger. The Marlins already even have the logical replacement in the dugout, and ironically enough, it’s someone who they’ve already fired before. Fredi Gonzalez was the last manager to lead Miami to a winning record, and then did so repeatedly with the Atlanta Braves. There’s a symmetry to it, really, and one that I think a lot of us probably thought about this winter.

Secondly, who says the new ownership wants to inherit a manager? Maybe they want to start with an entirely clean slate. This might even be something that Loria and the rest of the front office already know. So if it’s a choice of firing Mattingly in October, or firing him this month, Loria might decide to gamble on getting something out of it. Maybe the new ownership wants these kind of moves made before they take over operations. Maybe Loria even figures he’s doing Mattingly a favor, letting him know as soon as possible he should start looking for work.

If this does happen, I have to believe it will be new ownership related.

Why The Miami Marlins Won’t Fire Don Mattingly

Because the Miami Marlins are a family now.

A really, really injured family. This club has effectively lost six Opening Day players in just over a week, and with the exception of Adam Conley, all due to injury. That has to have even Jeffrey Loria swallowing hard and realizing patience is called for. That would be true under any circumstance. Particularly now though, because again, family.

Jose Fernandez was arguably one of the three best pitchers in baseball. Taking him out of the equation gives you, well, to be honest… it gives you what you’ve seen so far.

But there was also the feeling that Miami’s young core would bond together in the wake of that loss. This team had earned the opportunity to stick together, at least for one more year, and to try to pick up the pieces.

Every indication is that is exactly what happened. These guys are close, and that starts at the very top of the organization, not just the top of the clubhouse. Dumping Mattingly now would in many ways be a complete betrayal of that spirit of brotherhood.

Next: Greatest strength showing weakness

If the team continues to limp into July as they are right now, they can still expect some sympathy.

Fire Mattingly, and odds are the Marlins will spend a week being baseball’s punchline. Unless, of course, the move works. It did that one time, after all. Only time will tell how this plays out.

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Miami Marlins: History says Don Mattingly’s seat is getting hot