Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers: Three stories to watch

The Miami Marlins will get their last road trip of the first half started with a visit to the beautifully average Miller Park to take on the Milwaukee Brewers.

Well, that was a dispiriting way to wrap up the homestand for the Miami Marlins. Amazing how wide the gulf between 5-5 and 6-4 is in the grand scheme.

However, time to regroup and look forward. The next time you’ll see Fish playing at Marlins Park, it will be just two or three of them accompanied by the other best players in the game of baseball.

The first half wraps with a ten game odyssey that traverses the country, starting tonight in Milwaukee, passing through the baseball mecca of St. Louis, and wrapping way out west in San Francisco.

Miami will certainly need those four days off.

Their toughest series though might be the first one on deck. The newly returned Ryan Braun is showing no signs of rust, having homered in consecutive games. He’ll lead a Brewers club that has kept a surprising grip on first place in the NL Central for much of the season.

Important no matter how you look at it

And whether your focus remains on seeing the Miami Marlins challenge for a place in the postseason, or just playing well enough to impress the trade vultures, this Miller Park tilt is absolutely a show-me series for Miami.

Win, and they’ve proven they can hang with another Wild Card challenger. Lose, and the recent run of success looks more and more like the product of having played some softer competition.

If nothing else, it will be a series filled with interesting subplots.

For many, the weekends games are likely secondary to the grander narratives of sale talks and All-Star nominations. But there are stories to watch for on the field as well. From the newest member of the Miami Marlins rotation, to a mini-Home Run Derby, to some hopefully excellent pitching, we’ve got you covered.

Let’s dive in

The End Of Justin Nicolino?

It does seem that the Miami Marlins have come to that decision, and will be tapping someone else for Saturday’s start. To be fair, Justin Nicolino did have the Herculean task of keeping Bryce Harper and Kris Bryant in check in his two outings since returning from the DL.

But it hasn’t so much been the runs allowed with Nico as it has the innings pitched: he’s only made it out of the fourth inning once in five 2017 appearances. Yes, one of those was on account of injury, but there’s no arguing he has been a drain on the bullpen every time out.

To be honest, I’m somewhat impressed with the front office here. I thought for sure he would draw one more start, with this weekend’s appearance being a make or break one for him. Provided the rest of the Miami Marlins did their part.

Tom Koehler has been looking considerably more solid down on the farm in AAA. As has  28 yr old AA hurler named Mike Kickham. If the Marlins came up empty on another Nicolino day, but still managed to win this series, the Fish brass might decide to…well, try. If the Fish start to flounder again, say by losing consecutive series, then there would have been less incentive to make a move.

And The Next Miami Marlins Starter Is….

But it appears the club is trying to inject a little bit of life now, which is to their credit. This could also just be about saving the bullpen from the wear and tear Nicolino tends to inflict on them. In any event, someone new will be taking the mound Saturday for Miami.

Koehler was pulled from his scheduled start Thursday for New Orleans, with Odrisamer Despaigne taking his place. That both suggests Koehler is getting the nod, as well as burns another Marlins spot starter favorite.

That seems all but decided, and the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer suggested as much Wednesday. There’s a lot to read into who is ultimately picked though.

If it isn’t Koehler, then it would seem certain he remains on the trade block, and the front office wants him to keep padding his stats. If it is Koehler, then it could all be about seeing if he could look good enough against MLB competition to bolster his value. Or he could be back to stay.

Expect a short leash though on whoever it is, with not even a second start against St. Louis guaranteed if they falter.

Advantage or Disadvantage For Miami Marlins Pitchers?

Lastly, time to look at that matchup on the mounds. Because despite all the prolific bats discussed on the previous slide, the Miami Marlins are looking at a strong pitching advantage in this one when it comes to their starters.

It all comes down to the return of a pair of former Cincinnati Reds in Dan Straily and Edinson Volquez.

Straily and Volquez have easily been the Marlins two best starters this season, so any three-game set where they get to send both to the hill is worth noting. It gets even better when you look across at the competition.

All three scheduled Brewers starters sport ERAs well above 4.00 for the year. Good numbers for a GPA, not so much for keeping Stanton and Ozuna in check.

History worth noting

There’s also the track record to consider. Volquez has a respectable 8-4 record in his career against Milwaukee, admittedly against teams looking very different from the one he’ll be facing. Still, he knows the ballpark, and has at least seen the scorching Braun before.

The big story is Straily, who has dominated the Brewers as recently as 2016. And I mean dominated: 3-0, with an ERA of 1.67 and 23 Ks in four starts. If he can capture anything close to that kind of magic Sunday, the Marlins should be in good shape for a W there.

The real wild card is that Saturday start. If it is Koehler, it needs to be said there are only two teams in baseball he’s faced that he has done worse against than Milwaukee. And he’s played those two teams a combined three times. When it comes to meaningful sample size, the Brewers are far and away his kryptonite. We’re talking a 10.13 ERA in six starts here. Kryptonite might actually be an understatement. We’re talking Doomsday numbers here.

Next: Too many variables muddy Marlins future

That’s all for this series Marlin Maniacs. Fingers crossed we bounce back in a hurry, and start July off right. This might be the last month we enjoy Miami Marlins baseball for awhile.

Meet you in St. Louis.