Four starters the Miami Marlins could target this offseason
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The Miami Marlins have issues to address in the offseason. Their top priority will be suring up their starting rotation.
The Miami Marlins might be able to solve a lot of their rotation problems in house. Dan Straily and Jose Urena have locked up spots in the 2017 rotation. Adam Conley has been impressive in his return to the rotation. Dillon Peters and Chris O’Grady could compete for spot in 2018.
I’ve intentionally excluded Justin Nicolino from the above.
Even if they are able to fill most of their rotation woes outside of free agency, they won’t be able to address them all.
Much of what the Miami Marlins are going to do this offseason is shrouded in mystery. Jeffery Loria is out. Derek Jeter is in. I can’t believe that is a true statement.
How Jeter and his extensive list of ownership partners choose to handle personnel this offseason is anyones guess. Considering the late season push that the club is making, tearing it down and starting from scratch seems unlikely.
Positionally, they’re mostly in the clear. The outfield is set; they’re likely the best group in Major League Baseball. Justin Bour, Dee Gordon, and J.T. Realmuto will all return. Gordon could be on the bubble, but his team friendly contract and improved play suggest he’ll be back.
The left side of the infield has question marks. JT Riddle and Miguel Rojas might duke it out for the starting shortstop role. Martin Prado is locked up for another two years and returning from injury. But with Brian Anderson ripping up the minor leagues, he could be on the move.
The Marlins won’t be heavy hitters in free agency this year. But if they’re going to spend, it’s going to be on a starting arm.
Here are five players they might target when December rolls around:
Alex Cobb, RHP
This would be at the top of the list for the Miami Marlins. Alex Cobb is an excellent right-hander who will have just turned 30 when free agency rolls around. Cobb has flown under the radar for most of his career having pitched in Tampa Bay, but don’t let the lack of notoriety fool you.
It might still be considered something of a stretch to call him a legitimate ace, though.
Twice in his career he’s finished with a sub-3.00 ERA, but injuries have slowed him in recent years. He missed all of 2015, and much of 2016 with separate right elbow injuries.
He’s returned to form in 2017, and has likely done enough to earn himself a decent payday. Turf toe has slowed him in the month of August, but not enough to reason for legitimate concern. He’s been one of the key factors keeping Tampa Bay afloat this season.
Cobb has pitched to a 9-8 record this season, managing a 3.80 ERA. He’s an innings eater, and rarely fails to go at least five innings. His numbers are skewed slightly by a few starts where he was left in a little too long.
He would be at the absolute top of the Miami Marlins budget, likely a little beyond it. With commitments elsewhere, the Fish might not be in position to make a serious run at Cobb. If they do, it’ll come at a cost.
Jason Vargas, RHP
Hardcore Marlins fans might recognize this name. This would be a homecoming for Jason Vargas, a second round selection by the Florida Marlins in 2004. Vargas would eventually make his debut with the Fish, but was shipped off to the Mets in 2007.
He’s put together a respectable career since leaving Miami. Stints with the Mets, Mariners, Angels, and Royals have yielded passable results. While Vargas might not pack the flash that a marquee name might, he’ll be more cost-effective, and a veteran addition to a young staff.
The Kansas City Royals aren’t expected to try and retain him this offseason, and he’ll be 35-years old at the start of the 2018 season. Expect a contract for Vargas to be something in the two or three year range. He’ll push for three, the Marlins will only want to commit to a maximum of two.
He can’t slot in as the ace of the staff, but he would be excellent as the third pitcher in the rotation.
Hampered by financial commitments to players who likely won’t see the field, they would need a career year out of Vargas. He’s put together a respectable 3.59-ERA for the Royals this year, something that might improve pitching in the spacious confines of Marlins Park.
He won’t exactly come cheap, but he won’t break the bank either. He is a realistic example of what is at the top of the Marlins budget. The absolute top.
Tyler Chatwood, RHP
Here’s a name that the Miami Marlins might be able to catch lightning in a bottle with. Tyler Chatwood has struggled to keep the ball inside the park at Coors Field. Pitching for the Colorado Rockies usually leads to obscenely high ERA’s, and Chatwood is no exception.
This year, the righty sports an ERA of 5.17. However, his home and away splits are drastic.
At Coors Field, his ERA is an ungodly 6.88, and his WHIP is 1.739. Away from Colorado, there is significant improvement.
His ERA dips to a palatable 3.78, and his WHIP lands at 1.244.
Chatwood is only 27-years old, he’ll be 28 when the season starts next year. He’s bounced around between the bullpen and the rotation for Colorado in 2017, which could drive down the asking price when free agency rolls around.
If all that is needed is a change scenery, Chatwood could prove to be a bargain for Miami. His youth will make teams more willing to take a chance on him, but don’t expect him to be one of the first names off the board.
The Marlins know what their range will be, and Chatwood could very well be in it. If they approach him early on, they might be able to convince him to sign at a very reasonable rate. Team friendly will be the name of the game this offseason.
John Lackey, RHP
The most recognizable name on this list. Over the course of a 15-year career, John Lackey has appeared in every kind of pressure cooker situation you can imagine. He’s been to the World Series with three different teams, most recently with the curse-busting Cubs.
Lackey will have a few offers on the table if he wants them. The market won’t be scorching hot for him the way it might have been a few years ago, though. If the Marlins choose to go after him, it’ll be on as short a deal as possible
Expect a one year contract wherever he goes. He’ll be 39 by the time the 2017 season rolls around. Wth his trophy case full, and little else to prove in the game, he might decide to call it a career if he doesn’t get the right deal from the right team.
Lackey will likely only sign with a team that he believes has a realistic chance of making the postseason and winning a World Series. If the Marlins flounder to end the 2017 season, you can cross this name off the list.
Lackey has proven he can still be an effective Major League pitcher, though not a dominant one. He’s the veteran presence the team will be lacking with Volquez on the DL all of next season.
Conclusion
Money will be the determining factor in who the Miami Marlins sign (or don’t sign). They won’t have much of it to go around. You can expect new owners to be cautious with the company checkbook in their first season.
The list of names isn’t a particularly inspiring one, but it’s the reality of what the Marlins are facing this season. It’s very possible none of these names end up in Miami. Who knows, the answer to all five rotation spots could end up coming from players already on the pay sheet.
Next: Miami Marlins control their own playoff destiny
Starting pitching stands as the Marlins biggest need heading into the 2018 season. How incoming ownership handles the offseason will go a long way in telling how the group views the current Miami Marlins roster.