Miami Marlins offseason day one: Conjecture control

The Miami Marlins season ended on Sunday with a loss to the Atlanta Braves. Now they enter an offseason full of uncertainty.

Suppose for a minute that the Miami Marlins pitching staff had performed to the league average. The playoffs could be on the horizon. Miami Marlins pitchers accounted for a total of -12.2 wins above average this season, and -0.8 wins above replacement.

Career years by several Marlins helped account for 10.1 WAA and 28.3 WAR as a team offensively. It was a season of weakness cancelling strength. Miami could face another rebuild as a result.

With uncertainty abounding, it’s best not to look too far ahead. We don’t know what Derek Jeter has in store for the Miami Marlins roster yet.

We know that Giancarlo Stanton isn’t interested in another rebuild. In his final post-game interview of the season, he didn’t dance around the question. “I wouldn’t want to do that, no”, Stanton said when asked about the possibility of a rebuild.

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Miami will have to decide which direction it wants to go before too long. If they opt to rebuild, it appears Stanton won’t want to stay in town. If they are to add two starting pitchers in the offseason, they’ll need to find a way to clear payroll elsewhere.

Miami has a serious cashflow problem. Poor attendance, poor television distribution money, and poor overall interest make it difficult to justify spending large sums of cash on free agents. If Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman go “all in” on the current core, they’ll have to dig deep into their pockets.

Keeping hearsay at bay

The sale of the team brought constant waves of misinformation. The offseason should bring the same level of speculation and conjecture. Until Jeter and Sherman make their first trade or free agent signing, it’s impossible to know exactly what they’re thinking.

Recent personnel moves don’t tip their hand much in terms of their plans for the roster. Incoming ownership groups usually want to bring in their own people when they take over.

Technically, the baseball season isn’t over. There is still a month worth of playoff baseball before we crown a world champion. Eligible players can start filing for free agency the following morning. Six days later, they can sign with any team.

Will the Miami Marlins be players in the free agent pool? Will they be looking to trade their best assets, including potential MVP Giancarlo Stanton to rebuild the team? Nobody knows for sure yet.

One thing is certain: the Miami Marlins won’t stand pat through the offseason. Either in one direction or the other, there is change on the horizon.

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