Miami Marlins not done with Giancarlo Stanton trade yet

NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 16: Starlin Castro
NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 16: Starlin Castro /

The Miami Marlins caught a lot of flak from media and fans for their return on Giancarlo Stanton.

Giancarlo Stanton can hit home runs unlike anyone else in his generation. He hits the kind of monster-dong bombs that Miami Marlins fans could dream on. The New York Yankees acquired him this offseason after the first MVP season in Marlins franchise history.

Criticism abounded. Everything from nepotism, to profligating a Yankee conspiracy, to being nothing more than a pawn shop franchise. The Miami Marlins felt they struck a good deal. The fans and media disagreed.

But it’s too quick to pass judgement one way or another.

Partly because we don’t know how good the players they received are going to be. If Jorge Guzman ends up being a front-line ace, throwing 98 miles per hour in the seventh inning, it’s hard to say they got “ripped off”.

But the real reason it’s too early to judge the Marlins-Yankees trade is because it’s not totally over yet.

Stanton is officially a Yankee. Through his agent, he said he has no intentions of opting out of his contract in 2020. Conversely, Starlin Castro is a Miami Marlin, and the team will endeavor to trade him this offseason.

The free agent market is flush with second baseman right now. After a dizzying flurry of blockbuster trades, the Miami Marlins figure to be quiet for a few weeks while they sort things out in-house.

But once they’re active on the market again, Castro figures to be one of the players they’ll push to rehome. In an earlier article, we discussed the likelihood of a similar strategy with Dan Straily.

Once the team jettisons Castro to his new destination, we’ll have a clearer idea of how much the team really got back in their trade with the Yankees.

Castro’s value and potential return

Starlin Castro was once considered the prospect darling of the Chicago Cubs organization. He didn’t turn out to be the generational shortstop they had in mind. But he still developed into an above-average Major League Baseball player with significant value.

Last season, Castro produced 2.0 WAR, and posted a .338 OBP. The guaranteed portion of his contract is worth two years, $21 million. There is a team option for a third year worth $16 million in 2020.

Option year aside, the Miami Marlins are not in the multi-million dollar business right now.

With that in mind, trading him is the obvious outcome. They should get back a significant prospect return, with at least one or two players that net them top 30 prospects. A haul similar to what they returned for Dee Gordon is the likeliest outcome.

Not only do the two players produce similar value (albeit in different ways), but Castro is younger, cheaper, and on a shorter contract.

Next: Miami Marlins will look to trade Dan Straily

Once they find a taker, let the naysayers nay if they’re still unhappy with the return. Dee Gordon returned two players currently in the Miami Marlins top 15.

If Miami is able to bring back the same for Castro, it would total three players in the top 30, and two plus prospects outside of it. That, coupled with the fact they’d be out from under the crippling contract Stanton is guaranteed makes the trade a good one for Miami.