Miami Marlins: Six Players to Watch

The 2018 season is getting underway and it seems everyone has already counted the Miami Marlins out. What they’re all forgetting is that there is a reason they actually play the games.

Nothing is won or lost on predictions. “Experts” have the Miami Marlins pegged as a 100-loss club. Most prediction systems predict a similar fate. Pecota shows the Marlins will finish 65-97. numberfire.com has the Fish at 70-92. Rotochamp.com has Miami at 64-98, and so on.

Even the best simulation game in the world, OOTP19, has the Marlins looking squarely at a 64-98 record. Can anyone ever really tell, though, what the future holds? This slideshow features six players who could make a difference. Some of them are established, and some of them are just getting started.

I’ve featured mostly hitters in this slide deck, with one pitcher you may have heard of. That’s not to say the rest of the team will not perform well. Opening Day was a four-run loss to the Chicago Cubs, but Derek Dietrich, Brian Anderson, Tayron Guerrero, and Cameron Maybin all had decent performances in the losing effort.

Justin Bour

Bour is a 6’3″, 265 lb. left-handed batting first baseman from Washington, D.C. Turning 30-years-old later this season, he’s now in his fifth season with the Miami Marlins. Initially a 25th round pick of the Chicago Cubs in 2009, the Marlins picked him up in the 2013 rule 5 draft.

Bour is a solid defensive first baseman. He’s made only 10 errors in 2,405 chances thus far in his career. His .996 fielding percentage was even better last season. He flubbed just one ball in 809 chances, for a mark of .999.

On the offensive side of the ball, Bour has a career OPS of .835. That figure has risen in each season of his career. He picked up a .726 mark in 2014, improved to .800 in his official rookie season, 2015, bumped it up to .824 in 2016, and exploded to .902 last year.

Unfortunately, injuries have been an issue for Bour. He’s averaged 109 contests through his first three seasons with a variety of ailments. In the midst of that, however, he’s dropped his SO/W ratio from 2.97 in 2015 to 2.02 last year. In addition, his 5.0% average home run rate improved to 5.8% last season.

Bour will never be a speedy, base-stealing guy, but he is crafty enough to not get picked off napping on first. He is one-for-one in his career at stealing bases. Power hitting is what you see and what you will get from Bour. A full injury-free season could see him join the 40-homer club.

Starlin Castro

One of the newest Miami Marlins, Starlin Castro is a 6’2″, 230 lb. right-handed hitting middle-infielder from Monte Cristi, Dominican Republic. Even though he has just turned 28-years-old, he’s entering his ninth major league season. After six seasons with the Cubs, he spent the last two with with the Yankees.

Castro is listed as a shortstop / second baseman. He spent his first five years with the Cubs as their starter at shortstop. Since then, he’s appeared primarily at second base. Expected to man the load for the Marlins this season at shortstop, he’s yet to net a Gold Glove.

That’s not to say that Castro is substandard at the second base position. Far from it. After 297 games at second, his fielding percentage rates higher (.975) than at shortstop in 847 games (.963).

Offensively, Castro has slashed .282/.320/.413 through his career. He’s a three-time .300+ hitter, reaching the mark in 2010 for the Cubs and in 2017 with the Yankees, and surpassing it with a .307 mark in 2011 with Chicago. It’s not out of character to expect him to approach the mark once again.

Castro’s 99 career homers are concentrated at the back half of his career to this point. From a 0.6% as a rookie to a mark of 3.4% in each of the last two years.

Castro is no stranger to all-star appearances. The nine-year veteran made the squad three times while with the Cubs and once last season for the Yankees. It’s not a stretch to say that he may be making a repeat engagement with a solid first half.

Lewis Brinson

Lewis Brinson made his debut for the Miami Marlins on opening day, and is a solid contender for Rookie of the Year. His 115+MPH home run in the final spring game (in a 22-2 rout of the Miami Hurricanes) was the stuff of legend. Only seven homers were hit that hard through all of last season in the major leagues.

All but anointed “The Chosen One” since his arrival via the Christian Yelich trade, Brinson could make good on those expectations. Long considered a top prospect, he’s currently ranked #1 in Miami’s system, and #27 overall. In 2012, he was chosen in the first round by the Rangers. He arrived in Miami’s system with Isan Diaz, Monte Harrison, and Jordan Yamamoto for Christian Yelich.

The 6’3″, 170 lb. Brinson is a Tamarac, FL native, and will be 24-years-old in May. Steamer projects him to appear in just under 100 games, and hit .256. He’s a legitimate 20-20 threat as a rookie, and is widely expected to compete for NL Rookie of the Year.

“Toolsy” is a word that is often applied to Brinson, and watching his minor league reel it’s easy to see why. He grades at least above average in every category except for “hit,” and he’s shown improvement in that as well. With measurable strides made in plate discipline and pitch recognition, Brinson is the closest thing the Marlins’ have to a “can’t miss” prospect. Currently listed as a center fielder, Brinson is probably Miami’s long-term solution in right field.

Braxton Lee

Braxton Lee is an unexpected boon to the outfield corps on opening day. Although he didn’t start, it’s probable that we see him in this opening series against the Cubs. Lee can hit, field, and run, and will never, NEVER be out hustled. He led the Southern League last season with a .309 average, and could be an above-average leadoff man for years in the majors with the Miami Marlins.

Lee is a 5’10”, 185 lb. center fielder from Picayune, MS. Now 24-years-old, he played the first three-and-a-half seasons of his pro career in the Tampa Bay organization. He slashed .321/.391/.401 with Tampa Bay’s Southern League affiliate, the Montgomery Biscuits through 60 games in 2017.

On June 26th, Lee was included in the trade which made Adeiny Hechavarria a Ray. Ethan Clark was also sent to the Marlins’ system. Lee stayed in the Southern League, joining the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp and eventually winning the SL batting title. He then slashed .347/.398/.400 in the Arizona Fall League with the Salt River Rafters.

Lee can play all three outfield positions, but has played 382 of his 394 career contests in center. He carries a .988 fielding percentage at the position, having made only 13 errors in 1051 total chances. He also has 48 outfield assists over his four seasons in the minors.

I’ve never heard of having “too many” options. That’s a concept that will not anytime soon apply to Miami. Lee brings versatility to the table for the Marlins.

Trevor Richards

Miami’s ace-in-the-hole has long flown under the radar. Undrafted out of Drury College, the Miami Marlins signed him through free agency off the Gateway Grizzlies, an independent team in the Frontier League.

I was hoping to get drafted, but when I didn’t get the call I still knew I wanted to play some more. The Frontier League was a good adjustment period for me. I learned how to command a fastball better than I had in college. – Richards

Richards rapidly rose through Miami’s farm system, playing at four levels in just over one calendar year. He has a career 1.023 WHIP, a 2.52 ERA, and 211 strikeouts in 200 1/3 innings between the Batavia Muckdogs, the Greensboro Grasshoppers, the Jupiter Hammerheads, and the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp.

Richards may pitch with a tick below average velocity, but his fastball plays up because he creates a good downhill angle to the plate with a deceptive delivery. His changeup is above average, features good velocity separation and is effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. A fringy curveball gives Richards a third pitch that club officials say has improved in his first full season. – MLB Pipeline

Next: Miami Marlins: Opening Day

Richards, now-24-years-old, played well enough in Spring Training to make the club. He was sent down because the 40-man roster is full. I tell you though, he’s going to end up with the Marlins this year.