Miami Marlins Swept at “Home” by Mets: Grading the Marlins

The Miami Marlins dropped all three matchups at home against the New York Mets. This included two eighth-inning blown leads and a six-inning no hit bid by Jarlin Garcia.

I used the Wins Probability Added metric (WPA) to help ascertain which players performed in the higher leverage situations. In other words, if the Miami Marlins are winning, 6-0, a plate appearance doesn’t count as much. Conversely, an at bat with two on and two out in the bottom of the 13th has a very high leverage.

There’s something else you need to understand about WPA. Every game has a collective WPA of zero. The winning team will finish with a total of .50, and the losing team will have -.50. As such, it’s not a great predictor of future performance. What it can tell you is which players performed best when the chips were down.

Miami’s bullpen and every position player got into at least one game. Jacob Turner and Severino Gonzalez (with New Orleans) didn’t appear. Garrett Cooper is on the DL. Dillon Peters‘ and Trevor Richards‘ turns didn’t come up in the rotation. We will outline each of the 23 Marlins that appeared in the series.

For comparison’s sake, I’ll take a moment here to outline how the New York Mets fared.

Adrian Gonzalez +.415

Michael Conforto +.303

Asdrubal Cabrera +.286

Wilmer Flores +.236

Hansel Robles +.185

Jeurys Familia +.178

Zach Wheeler +.172

Yoenis Cespedes +.107

Todd Frazier +.100

Noah Syndergaard +.095

Brandon Nimmo +.073

Jerry Blevins +.066

AJ Ramos +.061

Robert Gsellman +.050

Amed Rosario +.042

Paul Sewald +.011

Jose Reyes -.007

Kevin Plawecki -.018

Tomas Nido -.019

Juan Lagares -.083

Jay Bruce -.196

Jacob deGrom -.252

Jacob Rhame -.293

Jarlin Garcia +.334

Jarlin Garcia appeared in 68 games as a rookie last season for the Miami Marlins. In his first two appearances this season, he allowed just five hits and four walks in 10 innings of work, with two earned runs and eight strikeouts.

Garcia started game three against the Mets for his first career start. He put 44-of-77 pitches into the strikezone, earning a 75 GameScore. In six innings, he allowed just a pair of walks and struck three out. He was the first pitcher in major league history to make it through six innings with 77 or future pitches without allowing a hit and then watch his team lose.

Garcia put 43-of-67 pitches over the plate, and retired the first 15 batters he faced without allowing a baserunner. He surrendered a single and a pair of walks, but one of them was of the intentional variety.

Miami’s taken a lot of heat lately because of the now-famous fire sale. What Garcia shows is that home-grown talent can pan out.

Garcia was signed as an international free agent prior to the 2011 season for the then-Florida Marlins. He worked his way up through the system with stops for the DSL Marlins in 2011 and the GCL Marlins in 2012. He spent 2013 with the Batavia Muckdogs, 2014 with the Greensboro Grasshoppers, and 2015 between the Jupiter Hammerheads and the Jacksonville Suns.

In 2016, Garcia was sidelined most of the year with injury, but played at three levels for the Marlins before the winter break. He then plied his trade in both the Arizona Fall League and the Dominican Winter League. It paid off for him, and after three appearances for the renamed Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp last season, spent the year with the Marlins.

Garcia currently leads the NL with just 2.8 hits allowed per nine innings pitched.

Justin Bour +.312

Justin Bour is a 6’3″, 265 lb. left-handed batting first baseman from Washington, D.C. Turning 30-years-old later this season, he’s now in his fifth season with the Miami Marlins. Initially a 25th round pick of the Chicago Cubs in 2009, the Marlins picked him up in the 2013 rule 5 draft.

Bour is a solid defensive first baseman. He’s made only 10 errors in 2,405 chances thus far in his career. His .996 fielding percentage was even better last season. He flubbed just one ball in 809 chances, for a mark of .999.

On the offensive side of the ball, Bour has a career OPS of .835. That figure has risen in each season of his career. He picked up a .726 mark in 2014, improved to .800 in his official rookie season, 2015, bumped it up to .824 in 2016, and exploded to .902 last year.

Unfortunately, injuries have been an issue for Bour. He’s averaged 109 contests through his first three full seasons with a variety of ailments. In the midst of that, however, he’s dropped his SO/W ratio from 2.97 in 2015 to 2.02 last year. In addition, his 5.0% average home run rate improved to 5.8% last season.

Bour is a notoriously slow starter. His March/April OPS of .741 is the lowest of any month for him (in May he goes 1.002). This year was no exception.

On Monday, Bour was 0-for-4 with a strikeout and a -.155 WPA. Most of his positive impact was in Tuesday’s game, when he put up a +.496 with his first two homers of the season. They were both two-run shots, and both were opposite fielders. He was 0-for-2 with a walk on Wednesday for a -.029 WPA.

Brian Anderson +.292

The inimitable Mr. Anderson came into Spring Training hoping to compete for the starting third base job. In the absence of Martin Prado, he seems to have grown into it.

Anderson, now five at bats away from losing his prospect status, leads the Miami Marlins with nine RBI this season. In Monday’s game, he was second on the club with a +.248 WPA. He grounded out for the second out of the second (-.017) and led off the fifth by reaching on an error (+.066), later scoring. He smacked an RBI-double with one out in the sixth, scoring Starlin Castro (+.146) and walked with one out in the eighth (+.052).

In Game Two on Tuesday, Anderson again ranked second on the team in WPA, with a mark of .092. Anderson took first by way of HBP to lead off the second (+.041). With one out and a man on first in the fourth, he singled to left (+.048). In the fifth, he drew a two-out walk (+.012), then singled to center with two out in the seventh (+.005). He grounded out to end the game (-.014).

On Wednesday, Anderson fared little better than most other Marlins. He was 0-for-3 with a -.048 WPA. He grounded out to end the first (-.019), grounded out for the second out of the fourth (-.015), and grounded out for the second out of the seventh (-.014).

Drew Steckenrider +.182

Drew Steckenrider is a 6’5″, 215 lb. right-handed pitcher from Atlanta, Georgia. Born on January 10th, 1991, he was drafted by the Miami Marlins in the eighth round in 2012.

Steckenrider, now 26-years-old, spent his first five professional seasons entirely in the minors, and just under half of his 2017 campaign. He struck out 259 in 238 1/3 career innings, with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.208 WHIP.

He also played 37 games for the Marlins in 2017, striking out 54 batters in just 34 2/3 innings. That resulted in a ridiculous 14.0 K/9 rate, which led the team.

This season, Steckenrider has made it through seven appearances without allowing a run. He’s struck out eight in 6 2/3 innings, with a WHIP of 0.750. He’s only walked one batter.

After staying in the bullpen on Monday, Steckenrider pitched the seventh inning on Tuesday. He struck out Amed Rosario on four pitches (+.039), Michael Conforto on three pitches (+.028) and Yoenis Cespedes on four (+.020). All three strikeouts were of the swinging variety, and it didn’t escape notice that it was just two pitches too many for an “immaculate inning.”

Steckenrider took over for Jarlin Garcia on Wednesday after six no-hit innings, and immediately induced Wilmer Flores to line out to Miguel Rojas. (+.044). He then got Cespedes to fly out as well (+.031) before losing the no-hit bid on a Todd Frazier single (-.025). He struck out Jay Bruce to end it (+.045).

Bryan Holaday +.069

Bryan Holaday went 1-for-3 with a walk on Monday for a .052 WPA. On Tuesday, he was 1-for-4 to earn a .017. He didn’t appear on Wednesday.

Tomas Telis +.024

Tomas Telis drew a walk in a pinch hit appearance on Monday (+.041). In another pinch hit opportunity on Tuesday, he struck out (-.017). Like Holaday, Telis also didn’t appear in Wednesday’s game.

Tayron Guerrero +.010

Tayron Guerrero struck out one in a perfect ninth inning on Monday. He got Kevin Plawecki (+.007) and Jose Reyes (+.005) to ground out, then whiffed Amed Rosario (-.004).

On Wednesday, he inherited a 1-0, eighth inning lead. He came in and hit Plawecki with a pitch (-.087) before again striking out Rosario (+.081). He was relieved by Chris O’Grady.

Tyler Cloyd +.008

Tyler Cloyd did not appear on Monday or Tuesday. On Wednesday, he made his first major league appearance of the season outside of Spring Training.

Cloyd pitched a perfect ninth inning. He got Rosario to fly out (+.003), Michael Conforto swinging (+.002), and Jose Reyes to fly out (+.002).

Yadiel Rivera -.013

Yadiel Rivera pinch hit with a runner on first and two outs in the eighth inning on Monday. He fouled out to the first base side (-.042).

On Tuesday, Rivera hit a one-out single in the third inning, trailing by three runs (+.029) and later scored. He didn’t get into the game on Wednesday.

Chad Wallach -.020

Chad Wallach got Monday and Tuesday off. On Wednesday, while the rest of the Marlins went hitless, he began his night at the plate with a two-out single in the second inning (+.011). He grounded out for the second out of the fifth (-.015). In the eighth, he struck out swinging against Robert Gsellman (-.016).

Miguel Rojas -.055

Miguel Rojas began Monday with a groundout against Noah Syndergaard for the second out of the first inning (-.015). In the fourth, he hit a single to right with a man on first (+.068). He hit into a bases loaded fielders choice to end the fifth (-.106). In the seventh , he hit a two-out single with a man on first (+.036) and ended his night with a swinging strikeout against Jeurys Familia (-.142, with two in scoring position and one out).

Rojas flew out to left for the second out of the first inning on Tuesday (-.016). He ended the third with a groundout (-.013). He hit an RBI single with one out and runners on first and second in the fifth inning (+.140) and later scored on Bour’s homer. He hit a sacrifice bunt to move Derek Dietrich to second in the seventh (-.020) and struck out with two runners on to end the eighth (-.088).

Rojas’ opened his night on Wednesday with his second homer of the season (+.104), off of Zach Wheeler. He grounded out for the second out of the third (-.014), flew out for the second out of the sixth (-.015), and drew a one-out walk in the ninth (+.026).

Odrisamer Despaigne -.064

Odrisamer Despaigne pitched the sixth inning on Tuesday, inheriting a 4-3 lead from Caleb Smith. He allowed a Todd Frazier double to right (-.100) then got Asdrubal Cabrera to hit a sacrifice fly to left (+.024). He gave Kevin Plawecki a walk (-.034) and another sacrifice fly, to Juan Lagares (-.016). He closed the inning by getting Jacob deGrom to ground into a comebacker (+.035).

Junichi Tazawa -.098

Junichi Tazawa came into Monday’s game with a 3-1 deficit. He struck out Yoenis Cespedes to lead off the sixth (+.016) then walked Jay Bruce (-.018). He then got Todd Frazier (+.021) and Asdrubal Cabrera (+.017) to fly out. In the seventh inning, he walked Adrian Gonzalez (-.037) and struck out Kevin Plawecki (+.035).

Tazawa came into the eighth inning on Wednesday trailing by a 3-1 count and with runners on first and second with one out. Wilmer Flores promptly hit a ground rule double (-.130). After an intentional walk to Cespedes (-.001), Frazier hit a RBI sacrifice fly (-.019). He then intentionally walked Jay Bruce (-.003) before ending the inning on a bases loaded Tomas Nido groundout (+.019).

Caleb Smith -.121

Caleb Smith started the second game of the series on Tuesday, He struck out seven in five innings, allowing three runs on five hits and a walk.

Jose Urena -.130

Jose Urena started game one, opposite Noah Syndergaard. He lasted five innings and allowed three earned runs on five hits and a walk. He struck out four.

Lewis Brinson -.271

Brinson was 0-for-2 with a whiff on Monday (-.102), 0-for-4 with a strikeout on Tuesday (-.108), and 0-for-3 with two strikeouts on Wednesday (-.061).

Cameron Maybin -.279

Cameron Maybin was 0-for-4 with a strikeout on Monday (-.167). He went 0-for-1 on Tuesday in a pinch-hit appearance (-.072), and 0-for-3 with a strikeout on Wednesday (-.040).

Braxton Lee -.323

Braxton Lee was 1-for-3 on Monday (-.129). On Tuesday, he went 0-for-4 wtih three strikeouts (-.186). He struck out in his only plate appearance on Wednesday (-.008).

Kyle Barraclough -.353

Kyle Barraclough allowed a hit and a walk in 2/3 of an inning on Monday, with a pair of strikeouts.

On Wednesday, he gave up two earned runs on two hits in one inning, with just one strikeout.

Starlin Castro -.370

Starlin Castro was 1-for-5 with three strikeouts on Monday, for a -.271 WPA. He was 2-for-4 with an RBI on Tuesday (-.022), and 0-for-4 with a strikeout on Wednesday (-.077).

Brad Ziegler -.411

Brad Ziegler came into the ninth inning on Tuesday with the game tied at six, and allowed a walk and a two-RBI-double before throwing a wild pitch.

Chris O’Grady -.530

Chris O’Grady came into the eighth inning of Wednesday’s game with a 1-0 lead and a runner on first. He allowed a Michael Conforto double to right (-.209) and an Adrian Gonzalez two-RBI-single (-.288). He then allowed Asdrubal Cabrera single (-.033) before getting relieved by Junichi Tazawa.

Next: Post Series Grades vs. Phillies

Thanks for reading our post-series breakdown. Like us on Facebook, follow us at @MarlinManiac, and bookmark us for all breaking Marlin news.