Grading the Marlins: Miami Wins 1-of-3 Against Bucs

The Miami Marlins defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-2 on Friday, then dropped a 1-0 squeaker on Saturday. On Sunday, the Pirates took the series with a decisive 7-3 victory.

I used the Wins Probability Added metric (WPA) to help ascertain which players performed better (or worse) in the higher leverage situations. In other words, if the Miami Marlins are winning, 6-0, a plate appearance doesn’t count as much. Conversely, an at bat with two on and two out in the bottom of the 13th has a very high leverage.

There’s something else you need to understand about WPA. Every game has a collective WPA of zero. The winning team will finish with a total of .50, and the losing team will have -.50. As such, it’s not a great predictor of future performance. What it can tell you is which players performed best when the chips were down.

In the last week, outfielder Braxton Lee was sent down to the New Orleans Baby Cakes. JB Shuck was called up to fill his spot on the roster. In addition, J.T. Realmuto and Dan Straily made rehab starts with the Jupiter Hammerheads.

This article will take a look at how the 20 Miami players performed in the series. We will start with the top, and work our way to the bottom. For comparison’s sake, I’ll list the Pirates and their WPA overall values for the series.

Elias Diaz +.320

Jameson Taillon +.268

Josh Bell +.246

Corey Dickerson +.235

Felipe Vazquez +.213

George Kontos +.155

Starling Marte +.127

Michael Feliz +.096

Ivan Nova +.092

Francisco Cervelli +.062

Kyle Crick -.002

David Freese -.006

Sean Rodriguez -.027

Dovydas Neverauskas -.038

Adam Frazier -.102

Colin Moran -.142

Josh Harrison -.152

Jordy Mercer -.190

Gregory Polanco -.266

Chad Kuhl -.390

Trevor Richards +.327

Miami’s ace-in-the-hole has long flown under the radar. Undrafted out of Drury College, the Miami Marlins signed Trevor Richards through free agency off the Gateway Grizzlies, an independent team in the Frontier League.

Richards rapidly rose through Miami’s farm system, playing at four levels in just over one calendar year. He has a career 1.023 WHIP, a 2.52 ERA, and 211 strikeouts in 200 1/3 innings between the Batavia Muckdogs, the Greensboro Grasshoppers, the Jupiter Hammerheads, and the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp.

In Richards first game, he was saddled with the loss after allowing the Boston Red Sox five runs in 4 1/3 innings. He struck out five and gave up eight hits and a walk on April 2nd.

Six days later, Richards earned a no-decision against the Philadelphia Phillies. He allowed three runs on six hits and three walks in four innings.

For Richards, Saturday’s performance would see him drop his WHIP from 2.16 to 1.37 and his ERA from 8.42 to 4.70. In seven innings of work, he gave up just two hits and a walk, keeping the Pirates off the board. He got 49-of-82 pitches over the plate, earning a 74 GameScore and striking out a pair.

Ultimately, of course, the Marlins were taken down in the bottom of the ninth, but more on that later.

JB Shuck +.119

JB Shuck is a 30-year-old lefty from Westerville, Ohio. In 2008, he was chosen in the sixth round of the amateur draft by the Houston Astros.

Shuck eventually made his way up through Houston’s minor league system to make his debut on August 5th, 2011. He appeared in 37 games, and slashed .272/.359/.321 as a “pre” rookie. He didn’t appear with Houston again in 2012, and was granted free agency prior to 2013’s New Year.

Shuck has never signed a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract. He has always done enough to be considered a “major leaguer.” From 2013 through 2016, he played 151 games with the Los Angeles Angels, 16 games with the Cleveland Indians, and 159 games with the Chicago White Sox. In 129 games for the Angels in 2013, he placed fifth in the AL Rookie of the Year vote by slashing .293/.331/.366.

Shuck played in 123 games for the Rochester Red Wings, but didn’t graduate to the majors. He slashed .259/.325/.368 at the Minnesota Twins highest affiliate.

Shuck had a strong spring training for the Marlins a few months ago, and the team called him up late on Thursday.

In Shuck’s first major league game in 18 months, he started out with a one-out triple in the second inning (+.074), later scoring on a wild pitch. He added a two-out single in the fourth (+.011), a leadoff single in the sixth (+.019), and a two-out single in the seventh (+.001).

In his second game, Shuck batted sixth, and drew a one out walk with a runner on second in the second inning (+.020). He hit a into fielder’s choice with no out and two on in the fourth (-.025). He grounded into the second out of the sixth (-.024) and grounded out with runners on the corners to end the eighth (-.106).

On Sunday, Shuck led off with an infield-single (+.035), later scoring on Brian Anderson’s groundout. He took first on an HBP to lead off the third (+.044) and fouled out with a man on first with one out in the fifth (-.032). Later, he reached first on an error by Adam Frazier with two out in the seventh (+.014).

Starlin Castro +.107

Starlin Castro is a 6’2″, 230 lb. right-handed hitting middle-infielder from Monte Cristi, Dominican Republic. Even though he has just turned 28-years-old, he’s entering his ninth major league season. After six seasons with the Cubs, he spent the last two with with the Yankees.

Castro is listed as a shortstop / second baseman. He spent his first five years with the Cubs as their starter at shortstop. Since then, he’s appeared primarily at second base. Expected to man the load for the Marlins this season at shortstop, he’s yet to net a Gold Glove.

That’s not to say that Castro is substandard at the second base position. Far from it. After 297 games at second, his fielding percentage rates higher (.975) than at shortstop in 847 games (.963).

Offensively, Castro has slashed .282/.320/.413 through his career. He’s a three-time .300+ hitter, reaching the mark in 2010 for the Cubs and in 2017 with the Yankees, and surpassing it with a .307 mark in 2011 with Chicago. It’s not out of character to expect him to approach the mark once again.

Castro’s 99 career homers are concentrated at the back half of his career to this point. From a 0.6% as a rookie to a mark of 3.4% in each of the last two years.

Castro started this series by grounding into a first inning double play on Friday (-.100). He repeated the trick in the third (-.046). With bases loaded and one out in the fifth, he hit a sacrifice fly which ended up scoring three runs (+.236). He singled with one out in the seventh (+.006), later scoring on Justin Bour’s third homer of the season.

In game two, Castro struck out to end the first (-.010), and grounded out to end the third (-.026). In the fifth, he hit a two-out single (+.016), and he singled again with one out int he eighth (+.046).

Castro singled to load the bases in the first with nobody out on Sunday (+.071). He flew out to center for the second out of the third with a man on first (-.033), and grounded out to third to open the sixth (-.026). He did it again to open the eighth (-.026).

Drew Steckenrider +.105

Drew Steckenrider is a 6’5″, 215 lb. right-handed pitcher from Atlanta, Georgia. Born on January 10th, 1991, he was drafted by the Miami Marlins in the eighth round in 2012.

Steckenrider, now 26-years-old, spent his first five professional seasons entirely in the minors, and just under half of his 2017 campaign. He struck out 259 in 238 1/3 career innings, with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.208 WHIP.

He also played 37 games for the Marlins in 2017, striking out 54 batters in just 34 2/3 innings. That resulted in a ridiculous 14.0 K/9 rate, which led the team.

This season, Steckenrider has made it through eight appearances without allowing a run. He’s struck out 10 in 7 2/3 innings, with a WHIP of 0.783. He’s only walked two batters.

Steckenrider did not appear in Game One or Game Three of the series against the Pirates. In Game Two, on Saturday, he relieved Trevor Richards to pitch the eighth inning. Steckenrider kept the shutout bid going with a scoreless frame. He struck out Jordy Mercer (+.046), walked Adam Frazier (-.049), and struck out Josh Harrison (+.025). Frazier was gunned down trying to steal second with one out (+.083).

Tayron Guerrero +.059

Tayron Guerrero pitched a shutout inning on Friday, striking one out and allowing a walk and a hit. On Sunday, he whiffed two Pirates in a perfect inning of work.

Miguel Rojas +.058

Miguel Rojas went three-for-five on Friday, with a run scored (+.160). On Saturday, he was one-for-four (-.068), and on Sunday he again went one-for-four with two strikeouts (-.034).

Justin Bour +.032

On Friday, Justin Bour hit his third home run of the season. He was two-for-four with a run, a strikeout, and two RBI for a total WPA of -.009. He was one-for-three with a walk on Saturday (-.008). In the series finale, he went deep for the fourth time the year, going one-for-two with a run, a strikeout and two RBI (+.049). Each of Bour’s home runs this season have been two-run shots.

Kyle Barraclough +.011

Kyle Barraclough pitched a perfect eighth inning for the Marlins, striking out the side to preserve Miami’s 7-2 lead on Friday.

Junichi Tazawa -.009

Junichi Tazawa pitched  perfect ninth inning on Friday to preserve a lead in a non-save situation. With a five-run head start, he induced Josh Bell (+.004) and David Freese (+.002) to fly out. He then struck out Corey Dickerson (+.000) to end the game.

In Sunday’s game, Tazawa came into the game in the top of the ninth and looking at a 6-3 deficit. He allowed Starlin Marte a leadoff homer (-.018) and a Bell single (-.002). He then got Dickerson to line into a double play (+.005) and struck out Francisco Cervelli (+.001).

Tomas Telis -.010

Tomas Telis struck out in his pinch hit appearance on Friday with a man on second and one out (-.011). On Saturday, he flew out to center for the second out of the seventh (-.028). He recorded a hit in Sunday’s game, singling to left with one out in the fifth (+.029).

Dillon Peters -.039

Dillon Peters pitched the opener and earned the victory for the Marlins. He struck out three and allowed four hits and two walks in six innings of work. His .046 WPA as a pitcher was dragged down by his performance as a hitter (-.085).

Odrisamer Despaigne -.042

Odrisamer Despaigne only appeared in the series finale, striking out three in two innings. He allowed two runs on three hits and didn’t walk anyone.

Bryan Holaday -.138

Bryan Holaday took Friday and Sunday off. On Saturday, he was 0-for-three with a walk and a strikeout.

Jose Urena -.227

Jose Urena started the finale, and struck out five in five innings. He allowed four earned runs on eight hits and a walk.

Lewis Brinson -.242

Lewis Brinson finally broke his 0-for-26 cold streak on Friday, going one-for-three with a walk (+.010). He then started another one. He was 0-for-four on Saturday and 0-for-four on Sunday with three whiffs.

Brad Ziegler -.304

Brad Ziegler earned his third loss of the season on Saturday. He came into a scoreless tie to pitch the ninth and allowed three hits and the only run of the game.

Next: Grading the Marlins: Mets Sweep Miami

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