Grading the Miami Marlins: Swept in Milwaukee

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The Miami Marlins went into Milwaukee with the best of intentions. My goal for the team, if they had asked, was to earn at least a split and ensure that Lewis Brinson outperformed Christian Yelich.

For the former, of course, the Miami Marlins went and got themselves swept. Yelich went 3-for-14 with a home run in the finale, and Brinson was 3-for-12 with three homers, six RBI, and six strikeouts. In that regard, at least, they were one-for-two. Of course, they’re not playing for me — not specifically, anyway.

I used the Wins Probability Added metric (WPA) to help ascertain which players performed better (or worse) in the higher leverage situations. In other words, if the Miami Marlins are winning, 6-0, a plate appearance doesn’t count as much. Conversely, an at bat with two on and two out in the bottom of the 13th has a very high leverage.

There’s something else you need to understand about WPA. Every game has a collective WPA of zero. The winning team will finish with a total of .50, and the losing team will have -.50. It doesn’t matter if the two teams combine for 50 runs or it finishes at 1-0, the WPA will still add up to zero. Also of interest, if two clubs split a two game series, each team’s individual WAR will also be a collective zero. At the end of a 162 season, in fact, an 81-81 club will have a mark of, you guessed it, zero.

WPA is not a great predictor of future performance. What it can tell you is which players performed best when the chips were down. As such, it’s a great metric for telling the story of one ballgame, or in this setting, one series. In these games, blowouts both, an early inning plate appearance, when the game was close, is worth much more than a plate appearance near the end.

Lewis Brinson +.191

Brinson only totaled three hits for the Miami Marlins in the series against the Brewers, and struck out six times. Still, his WPA margin leads the team, nearly double the next player on the list.

Brinson came into the series with a .131/.185/.131 slashline, going 8-for-61 with 20 strikeouts. Half of those eight hits came in Miami’s 17-inning, 2-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs on March 30th. Coming into the series opener, he was mired in a 1-for-36 slump.

In Thursday’s game, the series opener, Brinson batted eighth in the lineup and led off the third with his first homer of the season to tie the score at one (+.108). In his second at bat, with a man on and nobody out in the fifth, he cranked his second (+.216) to take a 3-2 lead. Brinson later struck out with no outs and a man on second, down by nine runs in the seventh (-.002). The Marlins eventually lost, 12-3.

The next day, in Miami’s 8-0 loss, Brinson had moved up to seventh in the order. He struck out for the first out of the second, down 1-0 with a man on first (-.037). Again with a man on first in the fourth, and down by a run, he struck out to end the inning (-.030).

In Saturday’s game, Brinson hit a three-run homer with nobody out in the second to give the Marlins a 4-0 lead (+.153). He struck out while up by three runs to lead off the fourth (-.014). In the sixth, he struck out while up by one run for the second out of the inning (-.019). He struck out again to lead off the ninth, tied at five (-.062).

On Sunday, Brinson drew first by way of HBP to lead off the second, up 1-0 (+.033). He grounded out, 1-3 to end the fourth (-.012). In the sixth, he struck out to end the inning with the bases loaded and down by a run (-.119). He suffered his sixth strikeout of the series for the second out of the ninth, down by a 4-2 score (-.026).

MILWAUKEE, WI – SEPTEMBER 16: Drew Steckenrider /

Drew Steckenrider +.102

Steckenrider has been one of Miami’s most dependable relief pitchers in the early going this season. Going into the Milwaukee series, he had appeared in nine games, and struck out 11 in 8 2/3 innings. He walked two and allowed four hits and zero runs, holding opposing hitters to a .143/.200/.214 slashline with a 0.454 WHIP.

After getting Thursday’s game off, Steckenrider was called on to pitch the sixth inning on Friday. He wasn’t very good, but since the situation was so low-leverage, with the Marlins trailing 6-0, it didn’t count that badly against him. He walked Christian Yelich (-.002), allowed Ryan Braun a single (-.005) and surrendered an RBI-single to Travis Shaw (-.002). After striking out Eric Thames (+.002) and Jonathan Villar (+.001), he gave up another RBI-single, to Orlando Arcia (-.004). He then loaded the bases by hitting Jett Bandy with a pitch (-.000). He closed the inning by inducing a flyout from Jesus Aguilar (+.001).

A quick turnaround would see Steckenrider pitch the seventh inning on Sunday. He was called on to protect a 5-4 lead, and did pretty well. Steck struck out Bandy (+.050) then allowed a single to Hernan Perez (-.054). He got out of the slight jam by getting Lorenzo Cain to ground into a 5-4-3 double play (+.115). The Marlins eventually lost this one in walkoff fashion, 6-5.

Justin Bour +.100

Like most seasons, Justin Bour got off to this one slowly. He was hitting .162/.225/.189 after 10 games before hitting his first home run. He entered this series with a .233/.313/.450 slashline, having recovered with four home runs in a week.

Bour batted cleanup in the opener, and started his game with a leadoff single to center in the second inning (+.039) while trailing by a run. He grounded out down by a run to lead off the fourth (-.029). With a man on first and nobody out in the sixth, trailing by two runs, he flew out (-.049). His inning ending groundout in the eighth (-.000) was of no consequence, since Miami was trailing by nine runs at that point.

Batting cleanup in game two, Bour struck out with runners on first and second for the second out of the opening frame (-.044). He flew out down by a run to lead off the fourth (-.029). Trailing 6-0 in the sixth with one out, he drew a walk (+.008). He struck out to end the eighth (-.000).

Bour batted fifth in the third game of the series. He singled to lead off the second while up by a run (+.033), and scored on Brinson’s third homer of the series. He flew out with a man on second, up by three runs for the second out of the third (-.022). In the fifth, he grounded out to end the inning with a man on first and up by two runs (-.020). Bour flew out to left for the first out of the eighth, with two runners on and a one run lead (-.051).

In the finale, Bour batted fourth again, and started his day with a two-out RBI-double (+.104) to take a 1-0 first inning lead. He grounded into a double play to end the third (-.052). In the sixth, he drew a walk to load the bases (+.110), trailing by a run. In the eighth, he collected another RBI with a one-out single to right (+.101).

NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 17: J.T. Realmuto /

J.T. Realmuto +.091

J.T. Realmuto missed the first 16 games of the campaign with a bruised lower back. He made his return on April 17th against the New York Yankees. He hit a home run and a single, collecting four RBI and scoring twice in Miami’s 9-1 victory.

J.T. batted fifth on Thursday, and flew out to right with a man on first for the first out of the second (-.037). He struck out for the second out of the fourth (-.021) and lined out to short for the second out of the sixth with a man on first (-.041).

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In Friday’s game, again batting fifth, he struck out with two runners on to end the first (-.042). He singled with one out in the fourth (+.032). In the sixth, he flew out with one out and one on (-.009), then drew a leadoff walk in the ninth (+.001).

After getting Saturday off, Realmuto was placed second in the order and reached base on catchers interference with one out in the first (+.024). He scored on Bour’s double. He singled to lead off the third (+.034) and singled again to lead off the sixth (+.058). Later, he drew a walk in the eighth (+.067) and scored on the Bour single.

Next: The First 1/9th of the season, recapped

Thanks for reading what amounts to a flashlight in the dark for these Marlins. No matter what Derek Jeter says, I don’t think this is a team that can compete for a division title this season. Still, you can follow us on Twitter and like us on Facebook. Keep a tab opened here for all breaking Marlins’ news.

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