Miami Marlins Post-Series Grades: Maybin I’m Amazed

Cameron Maybin led a few of Miami’s heroes in their series win against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

I used the Wins Probability Added metric (WPA) to help ascertain which players performed better (or worse) in the higher leverage situations. In other words, if the Miami Marlins are winning, 6-0, a plate appearance doesn’t count as much. Conversely, an at bat with two on and two out in the bottom of the 13th has a very high leverage.

There’s something else you need to understand about WPA. Every game has a collective WPA of zero. The winning team will finish with a total of .50, and the losing team will have -.50. It doesn’t matter if the two teams combine for 50 runs or it finishes at 1-0, the WPA will still add up to zero. Also of interest, if two clubs split a two game series, each team’s individual WAR will also be a collective zero. At the end of a 162 season, in fact, an 81-81 club will have a mark of, you guessed it, zero.

WPA is not a great predictor of future performance. What it can tell you is which players performed best when the chips were down. As such, it’s a great metric for telling the story of one ballgame, or in this setting, one series. In these games, blowouts both, an early inning plate appearance, when the game was close, is worth much more than a plate appearance near the end. We’re going to take a closer look at some of Miami’s top performers for the series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Cameron Maybin +.316

Cameron Maybin batted fifth in the order in the first game, and came up with two outs and runners on second and third in the first inning. He drew a walk to load the bases (+.030), but was stranded on a JB Shuck groundout. In the fourth, he led off with a single to center field (+.044)) with the score still tied at zero. Maybin flew out to center for the first out of the sixth with a runner on first base (-.055), trailing by a 1-0 margin. In the eighth, he drew another walk with one out and a runner on second (-.025) with the score tied at one. The Marlins lost that one, by an eventual 2-1 final score.

In game two, on Tuesday, Maybin was slotted sixth in the order, and began his night with a runner on first and one out in the second inning. With the scoreboard still at 0-0, he laced a single to left field, moving Justin Bour to second (+.038). He flew out to center to close the fourth, with the bases empty and the score tied at one (-.013). He struck out to lead off the seventh (-.038). With a runner on first and nobody out in the ninth inning, he hit a go-ahead RBI-double to left, scoring Brian Anderson (+.308).

In Wednesday’s game, Maybin again batted sixth. With nobody out and runners at first and second in the second inning, he flew out (-.056). He led off the fourth inning of the still scoreless tie with a double (+.076). In the fifth, he drew a two-out walk with a runner on first (+.026), then scored on Miguel Rojas‘ three-run shot. Maybin struck out with a runner on second for the first out of the seventh (-.016). He flew out to lead off the ninth (-.003).

In total, Maybin was 4-for-10 with three walks, for a .500 on-base percentage for the series.

Brian Anderson +.309

After a hot start to the season, Brian Anderson’s average had dipped all the way to .231 on April 19th. He’s currently riding a six-game hitting-streak, and was a big reason the Miami Marlins won two-of-three in L.A.

Batting cleanup on Monday, Anderson struck out in his first plate appearance, for the second out of the first with two runners on base (-.044). He followed that with a groundout to end the third inning (-.012). He drew a walk to lead off the sixth (+.060). In the eighth inning, Anderson collected Miami’s only RBI of the night. He hit a one-out single to center, scoring Starlin Castro from second (+.210) to get Miami within a run.

On Tuesday, Anderson was moved back to fifth in the order. He struck out swinging with a runner on first with nobody out in the second (-.035). He struck out swinging again for the second out of the fourth (-.019). Anderson ended the sixth with a fielder’s choice groundout (-.035). With the score tied at two, he led off the ninth with a single to left (+.082). He scored the game-winner one batter later.

Wednesday would see Anderson back at cleanup. He singled to lead off the fifth (+.038). In the third, he drew a two out walk with a runner on first (+.022). In the fifth, he struck out for the second out of the inning (-.021). He whiffed again with a runner on second to end the sixth (-.010). Anderson completed the trifecta in the eighth, looking at strike three with a runner on second (-.002).

In total through the series, Anderson was only three-for-11. He struck out five times, but drew a pair of walks.

MIguel Rojas +.290

Miguel Rojas led off the first game with the Dodgers by grounding out to second (-.022). He then grounded out to shortstop with a runner on first to end the second. In the fifth, he grounded out again for the second out of the inning (-.022). He whiffed to end the seventh (-.020). Rojas collected his only hit of the night with two outs in the ninth and trailing by a run (-.042), a single.

Maybe Tuesday would be better for Rojas. Moved down to seventh in the order, he flew out with two runners on for the second out of the second inning (-.047). He flew out to left field to lead off the fifth (-.030). In the seventh, he flew out to the pitcher for the second out (-.028). He completed a fruitless night with a groundout for the first out of the ninth (-.002). Miami won that one, by a 3-2 final.

Rojas batted eighth in the finale. He drew a one-out walk with runners on the corners in the second (+.033). In the fourth, he singled to right with a runner on second base (+.080). His big blow came int he fifth, with a two-out, three-run moonshot for a 3-0 Miami lead (+.336). He grounded out with a runner on second for the second out of the seventh (-.011). In the ninth, he reached on a Corey Seager error with one out (+.003).

Although he was just 3-for-13 in the series, Rojas came through in the clutch for the Miami Marlins.