What Could a Deal for J.T. Realmuto Look Like?

What Should Miami Look for in Return?

A deal that the Marlins could reference when looking for a fair return is the 2016 trade that sent Jonathan Lucroy to the Texas Rangers. The Rangers paid a hefty price for the then 30-year-old catcher.

The Brewers received Lewis Brinson who was the no. 15 prospect in baseball at the time, Luis Ortiz (no. 68 prospect) and a player to be named later that turned into Ryan Cordell.

While the trio has yet to make a huge impact at the major league level, the haul is still an impressive one for the Brewers.

At the time of the deal, Lucroy only had one and a half years remaining before free agency. Realmuto, currently has almost three years left before hitting the open market.

2016 Lucroy and 2018 Realmuto should be valued similarly on the trade market, as the pair has shown the ability to produce on both sides of the ball.

While Lucroy was marginally better in the two and a half years before he was dealt, most of that production came in a big 2014.

Lucroy 2014-2016 Pre-Trade Stats

2014- 153 GP .301/.373/.465- 13 HR- 26% CS, 24 DRS- WAR 6.6

2015- 103 GP .264/.326/.391- 7 HR-  28% CS, 3 DRS- WAR 1.0

2016 with Brewers- 95 GP .299/.359/.482- 13 HR- WAR 2.3

Realmuto 2016-2018 Stats

2016- 137 GP .303/.343/.428- 11 HR- 35% CS, (-13 DRS)- WAR 2.3

2017- 141 GP .278/.332/.451- 17 HR- 32% CS, (-5 DRS)- WAR 3.6

2018- 7 GP .385/.448/.846- 4 HR- WAR 0.6

If Realmuto stays even remotely as hot as he is right now, he has the chance to bridge the gap in WAR between him and Lucroy.

Although Lucroy has the edge when it comes to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Realmuto has proven to be an above average defensive catcher. Baseball Prospectus has Realmuto as the 6th best blocker in baseball According to Blocking Runs and the 13th best receiver (Receiving Runs.)

The Marlins should accept nothing less than what the Brewers received for Lucroy. They are very similar players and the slight edge that Lucroy may have in ability, Realmuto makes up for in his youth and the extra year of control.

Marlins Acquire: OF Juan Soto (55 FV),  Carter Kieboom (55 FV) and Nick Raquet (FV 45)

Nationals Acquire: C J.T. Realmuto 

The Marlins have had past conversations with the Nationals in regards to a Realmuto trade. Yet, the Nats were unwilling to include either of their top two prospects, Victor Robles and Juan Soto.

With where the Marlins are at in their rebuild, they must hold out until they get one of the two into the deal. The Nationals are currently struggling in Bryce Harper‘s final year of team control and their catching situation is looking bleak as Matt Wieters is currently hitting .194/.324/.387.

Given that the Nationals are aiming to compete this year, they may be willing to match the Marlins’ asking price closer to the deadline.

Juan Soto

For the Marlins to complete any deal with the Nationals, either Soto or Robles must be included.

Soto is the Nationals’ number two overall prospect and the no. 29 prospect in baseball. He has a natural feel for his swing and evaluators have put a 60 grade on his hit tool.

He profiles as a middle order of the bat down the road and could be someone the Marlins could look to build around. At 19 years old, Soto just got promoted to High-A earlier this week after hitting .373 with 5 home runs in 16 games at Low-A.

Kieboom and Raquet

Carter Kieboom is ranked as the no. 90 prospect in all of baseball and has very solid tools across the board. Most believe that he has a chance to stick at shortstop, if not he has the arm strength to play third.

To this point in his career, Kieboom’s hit tool has made him stand out. He makes loud contact and shows the ability to hit the ball over the fence from time to time.

The Nationals were willing to include Kieboom in a Realmuto trade earlier this offseason as a centerpiece, but the prospect depth below him wasn’t enough for Marlins to pull the trigger.

Nick Raquet is currently working as a starter in the Nationals system, but many evaluators see Raquet moving into the bullpen down the road. His stuff will play up in the bullpen as he has shown the ability to hit the upper 90’s at times.

Atlanta Braves

Marlins Acquire: RHP Mike Soroka (55 FV), OF Cristian Pache (50 FV), C William Contreras (45 FV)

Braves Acquire: C J.T. Realmuto

The recent promotion of Ronald Acuña signals that the Braves rebuild is nearing an end. Inserting the 27-year-old Realmuto could really help expedite the process.

The Braves have one of the best farm systems in baseball and they have a wide range of prospects to offer the Marlins.

Due to the number of talented pitchers the Braves have in their system and the Marlins lack of organizational depth, it would make sense if a pitcher or two would switch hands in this deal.

Mike Soroka

At 20-years-old, Mike Soroka is on the cusp of the big leagues. He is currently ranked as the no. 31 prospect in all of baseball.

Many evaluators like Soroka’s high floor and see him as a solid number three starter down the road, although he has also shown top of the rotation potential. He throws a fastball in the mid 90’s that has heavy sink and produces many groundball outs.

Adding Soroka to the system would be a solid boost for the Marlins organizational pitching depth. Look for Soroka to be contributing in the big leagues sooner rather than later.

Pache and Contreras

While Soroka may have the highest Future Value of the bunch, Pache is by far the most exciting prospect.

Pache shows elite speed and defensive ability that scouts rave about. MLB.com grades Pache’s hit tool as a 50, but if he can take the next step with his bat, Pache could become one of the most exciting prospects in baseball.

William Contreras is the brother of Cubs catcher, Willson Contreras. While he isn’t as highly rated as his brother was, William is a very talented player in his own right.

With the Braves organizational depth at catcher, it would only make sense for the Marlins to get a catcher in return for Realmuto.

Houston Astros

Marlins Acquire: OF Kyle Tucker (60 FV) and 3B J.D. Davis (50 FV) 

Astros Acquire: C J.T. Realmuto

The Astros had heavy interest in Realmuto over the offseason. Now that McCann has come out swinging a hot bat, plans might have changed in the Space City.

If a deal were to be struck between the two organizations, the Marlins must insist on either Kyle Tucker or Yordan Alvarez‘s name to be included.

Kyle Tucker

Tucker is currently ranked as the no. 16 prospect in baseball. Any package involving him would be smaller because the ‘Stros have been reluctant to give him up.

Tucker is a left-handed hitting outfielder out of Plant High School in Tampa and brother of Braves outfielder Preston Tucker. He is a pure hitter who projects to play right field down the road, where his above-average arm strength plays.

MLB.com has given a 60 grade on his power, which is much improved since he was drafted in 2015. Expect to see Tucker in the big leagues later this year.

J.D. Davis

Davis is a third baseman who is currently being blocked by Alex Bregman at the major league level. In 2017 he collected 62 at-bats with the Astros and homered four times.

Davis’ calling card is his power and it is believed that he is currently ready for the big leagues. He is currently off to a hot start at Triple-A where he is hitting .383/.453/.574.

While Davis may not be a clean fit with the Marlins as they already have Brian Anderson and Martin Prado. He profiles as a high floor guy that can make an immediate impact at the major league level.

The Mets and The Rest

The Mets have been the team most recently linked to Realmuto after Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki fell to injury.

The only problem is, the Mets do not have a farm system that lines up to meet the Marlins’ needs. I have seen an article throwing around the notion that the Mets could eat Wei-Yin Chen‘s contract as a part of the return.

While getting Chen’s money off the books would be nice for a rebuilding Marlins team, Realmuto has the chance to get a major haul in return and should not be sold short.

For any deal to even be considered names like Andres Gimenez, Mark Vientos and young major leaguers, Dominic Smith and Brandon Nimmo must be talked about.

If the Marlins are trying to have a successful rebuild, they must get as much value for Realmuto as they possibly can.

While I highlighted four teams and potential deals between each, a lot will change between now and the time the Realmuto is potentially dealt. Teams that were not even mentioned in this article amy end up putting together the best package for Realmuto when it is all said and done.

There is still a lot of baseball to be played between now and the trade deadline. Teams will become more restless with their current catching issues which will lead to Realmuto’s price to be driven up.

The Marlins must hold out until they get a deal similar to the 2016 Lucroy trade. With control of Realmuto through 2020, the Fish are in no rush to trade their star backstop.

Next: J.T. Realmuto can't do it all by himself

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