Miami Marlins: Grading the Fish vs the Colorado Rockies

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After a rocky start to the season, the Miami Marlins have now won their last two series, two-games-to-one.

A combination of solid starting pitching and timely hitting helped the Miami Marlins win the last two games against the Colorado Rockies.

I used the Wins Probability Added metric (WPA) to help ascertain which players performed better (or worse) in the higher leverage situations. In other words, if the Miami Marlins are winning, 6-0, a plate appearance doesn’t count as much. Conversely, an at bat with two on and two out in the bottom of the 13th has a very high leverage.

There’s something else you need to understand about WPA. Every game has a collective WPA of zero. The winning team will finish with a total of .50, and the losing team will have -.50. It doesn’t matter if the two teams combine for 50 runs or it finishes at 1-0, the WPA will still add up to zero. Also of interest, if two clubs split a two game series, each team’s individual WAR will also be a collective zero. At the end of a 162 season, in fact, an 81-81 club will have a mark of, you guessed it, zero.

WPA is not a great predictor of future performance. What it can tell you is which players performed best when the chips were down. As such, it’s a great metric for telling the story of one ballgame, or in this setting, one series. In these games, blowouts both, an early inning plate appearance, when the game was close, is worth much more than a plate appearance near the end. We’re going to take a closer look at Miami’s 21 participants in their series against the Colorado Rockies. Click here for our Dodgers recap.

Caleb Smith +.379

Up until today’s game, Caleb Smith hasn’t had the easiest start to a major league career.

Last season, he appeared in nine major league contests with the New York Yankees. Although his strikeout totals were solid, with 18 in 18 2/3 innings, he also had a 1.661 WHIP and a 7.71 ERA. A 5.62 FIP indicated that although his ERA was a little high, he really wasn’t getting it done. Admittedly, it was a very small sample size.

Smith had alternated good starts with bad through the first five starts of the season. In his debut on March 30th, he struck out eight in just 5 1/3 innings and allowed only a run to the Chicago Cubs, earning no-decision. In his next start on April 5th, he walked six in only three innings, allowing three runs and taking the loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, 5-0. He followed that with a relatively good game, striking out seven in five innings and surrendering three runs in an 8-6 loss to the New York Mets. He again earned a no-decision.

On April 16th, he turned in his worst showing of the campaign, earning a 25 GameScore by walking five and allowing five hits in just 2 1/3 innings. He earned the loss that day, to the New York Yankees, 12-1. He lost again on April 22nd, but he was pretty darn good in that game. He struck out 10 and allowed only two hits and zero walks in a 4-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Which takes us to his outing today. He finished with a staggeringly good GameScore of 85. He lasted seven innings and struck out nine, while allowing two hits and a walk. The performance lowered his season’s ERA from 5.82 to 4.40. He also collected his first ever major league win, 3-0 over the Colorado Rockies.

MILWAUKEE, WI – SEPTEMBER 16: Derek Dietrich /

Derek Dietrich +.241

Most of Derek Dietrich‘s positive impact in Miami’s series win against the Colorado Rockies came in the series opener. Ironically, it was a loss.

Deets sat on the bench for eight and a half innings before getting in as a ninth-inning pinch hitter for Cameron Maybin. Dietrich calmly slapped a double to left field leading off the inning (+.244), with the Marlins trailing by a not-insurmountable 1-0 score.

Unfortunately, Miguel Rojas and Lewis Brinson followed Dietrich’s double by striking out looking at strike three against Wade Davis. JB Shuck then drew a walk, but J.T. Realmuto ended it by grounding into a 6-4 fielders choice.

On Saturday, Dietrich led off for the Miami Marlins and struck out leading off the bottom of the first (-.022). He then grounded out, stranding a runner on third base to close the second (-.034).

In the fourth inning, Dietrich came up with one out and runners on first and second, then singled off starter German Marquez to knock in Brinson (+.067). Already leading, 3-1 in the bottom of the seventh, Dietrich added some insurance with a leadoff solo shot (+.053).

Dietrich’s positive impact was dampened by his performance on Sunday. He struck out for the second out of the first (-.015) and flew out with a runner on first for the second out of the third (-.025). Dietrich struck out leading off the sixth (-.013) and struck out again with at the bases loaded and nobody out in the eighth (-.014).

José Ureña +.238

José Ureña was the hard-luck loser in Miami’s 1-0 series opening loss to the Rockies. He now has an 0-4 record for the season.

Ureña has racked up a 19-25 record in parts of four seasons with the Miami Marlins. This includes a breakout 2017 when he emerged as an unlikely ace with a 14-7 campaign. He turned in a solid 1.273 WHIP and a 3.82 ERA. On the negative side, he led the NL with 14 HBP and his FIP was a career high 5.20.

To start this season, Ureña hit three batters in the very first major league inning, against the Chicago Cubs. Since then, he’s only hit one. Coming into his start on Friday, he had struck out 21 in 26 innings and surrendered a .270/.348/.430 slashline, with a 5.88 ERA.

Ureña lasted a season-high-tying seven inning on Friday, and struck out five Rockies. He allowed only one earned run, walking one and allowing six hits. He earned a 65 GameScore and got 67-of-98 pitches over the plate.

LOS ANGELES, CA – APRIL 24: Nick Wittgren /

Nick Wittgren +.205

Nick Wittgren had posted a 7-4 record with a 3.83 ERA for the Miami Marlins between 2016 and 2017. He struck out 85 in 94 innings with a 1.266 WHIP and a 3.63 FIP. All pretty respectable, but he wound up starting the season with the New Orleans Baby Cakes anyway.

For two weeks to begin 2018, Wittgren racked up a not-so-encouraging 10.13 ERA at the triple-A level. Miami recalled him from New Orleans on April 20th anyway.

Since getting back, Wittgren has appeared in five games and pitched the same amount of innings. He has struck out seven and allowed only four hits, but has walked five over that time.

Wittgren came in to pitch the eighth inning on Friday, hoping to keep the Marlins close in the 1-0 contest against Colorado. He allowed Ryan McMahon to single to open the inning (-.033). After Pat Valaika sacrificed McMahon to second (+.012), he struck out Charlie Blackmon (+.035). He intentionally walked Nolan Arenado (-.007), then unintentionally walked David Dahl (-.025). With the bases loaded, he then struck out Trevor Story (+.068) to end the drama.

In Saturday’s contest, Wittgren relieved Wei-Yin Chen with one out and runners on the corners, with a 3-1 lead in the sixth inning. Wittgren struck out Chris Iannetta (+.089) and got Gerardo Parra to fly out (+.066). His night was done, but he put out the fire with no damage taken.

MILWAUKEE, WI – SEPTEMBER 16: Drew Steckenrider /

Drew Steckenrider +.114

Drew Steckenrider has appeared in more of these “Grading the Marlins” articles than any other Marlin. This is his fifth time. His collective WPA for the season ranks second on the club, to only Jarlin Garcia.

Steckenrider did not pitch in Friday’s loss. On Saturday, he took the hill with a 4-1 lead for the eighth inning. He got Charlie Blackmon to ground out (+.022), then hit Ian Desmond with a pitch (-.025). He got out of trouble by getting Nolan Arenado to ground to the shortstop for an easy fielder’s choice (+.028) and Trevor Story to line out to third base (+.017).

In Sunday’s game, Steckenrider came in to again pitch the eighth. With a 2-0 Marlins lead, he allowed Gerardo Parra to single (-.067). After that, he struck out the side, getting Pat Valaika (+.059), Tony Wolters (+.046) and Ryan McMahon (+.034) to miss.

Steckenrider has struck out 18 batters in 13 2/3 this season. This builds off the success of last season, when he whiffed 72 in just 48 1/3 innings. He currently holds a 0.88 WHIP and a 2.05 career ERA.

Tayron Guerrero +.069

Tayron Guerrero pitched the seventh inning of Miami’s 4-1 victory on Saturday. He got Noel Cuevas (+.034) and Pat Valaika (+.022) to ground out. He then struck out Ryan McMahon (+.013).

Kyle Barraclough +.069

Kyle Barraclough came into Friday’s game to pitch the ninth inning. Handed a 1-0 deficit, he just had to keep Colorado scoreless in the frame. He started by walking Gerardo Parra (-.024) and Noel Cuevas (-.034). After Chris Iannetta successfully sacrificed the runners to second and third respectively (-.004), he intentionally walked Ryan McMahon (-.001). He then struck out Pat Valaika (+.050) and Charlie Blackmon (+.048) to end the threat.

On Saturday, Barraclough was called on to preserve Miami’s 4-1 lead in the ninth. In the save situation, he whiffed Iannetta (+.019) and Parra (+.010) before hitting David Dahl (-.008). He struck out Valaika (+.011) to nail it down.

Brad Ziegler +.032

Brad Ziegler entered Sunday’s game with a 3-0 lead in the ninth inning. He got Charlie Blackmon to ground out (+.019) and struck out Ian Desmond (+.010). Nolan Arenado got a single (-.008), but Ziegler struck out Trevor Story (+.011) to end the game.

Wei-Yin Chen +.023

Wei-Yin Chen made his first start in nearly a calendar year on Saturday. He struck out three and allowed four hits and two walks for one run in 5 1/3 innings. He got 43-of-68 pitches over the plate, and finished with a 57 GameScore.

Justin Bour -.003

Justin Bour batted fifth for the Marlins on Friday, and singled to center field with one out in the second inning for Miami’s first hit of the night (+.026). He drew a two-out walk in the fourth (+.015). In the seventh, he led off the inning with another walk (+.077). He matched his positive impact on the negative side in the eighth, striking out with two runners on base to end the inning (-.121). Bour did not play in Saturday or Sunday’s game.

Yadiel Rivera -.007

Yadiel Rivera pinch-hit for Nick Wittgren in the sixth inning on Saturday. Leading 3-1 and with the bases empty, he struck out looking (-.007) to end the inning.

Lewis Brinson -.008

Lewis Brinson batted eighth on Friday, and flew out to right, stranding two runners to close the second inning (-.044). He flew out to right for the second out of the fifth (-.024). With two outs and a runner on first in the seventh, he hit a single to center (+.042). He then struck out with a runner on second for the second out of the ninth (-.137).

Brinson again batted eighth on Saturday, and hit a double with one out in the second (+.037). In the fourth, with a runner on first and nobody out, he drew a walk (+.034) and scored. He struck out for the second out of the sixth (-.009) and grounded out with a runner on second to close the eighth (-.005).

Moved up to seventh in the order on Sunday, Brinson singled with a runner on second and two outs in the second inning, scoring Brian Anderson for the first run of the night (+.111). He flew out to center to end the fourth (-.008) and the seventh (-.005).

Starlin Castro -.012

Starlin Castro batted third in the series opener on Friday, and grounded out to end the first inning (-.010). He struck out to open the fourth (-.027) and grounded out for the second out of the sixth (-.028). He hit a one-out single with a runner on first in the eighth (+.094).

Castro batted third again on Saturday, and drew a one out walk with a runner on second in the first inning (+.019). He hit a one-out single to left in the third (+.038) and scored. With the bases loaded and one out in the fourth, he grounded into a 6-4-3 double play (-.064). He closed his night with one out groundout to short for the second out of the seventh (-.004).

Don Mattingly kept Castro in the three spot on Sunday. Castro grounded out to close the first (-.010) and the third (-.021). He grounded out again for the second out of the sixth (-.009). With the bases loaded and one out in the eighth, he hit an RBI sacrifice fly (+.010), scoring Bryan Holaday.

JB Shuck -.033

JB Shuck drew a two-out walk with a runner on second in a pinch-hit appearance on Friday (+.028). He was out on the next play when J.T. Realmuto grounded into a fielders’ choice to end the game.

Shuck was sixth in the order on Saturday. He flew out with runners on the corners to end the first (-.042). He flew out to end the third with a runner on second (-.024). With two outs in the fifth, he flew out again (-.005). He closed his night by striking out with a runner on first for the first out of the eighth (-.004).

Bryan Holaday -.035

Bryan Holaday batted eighth in Sunday’s series finale, and flew out with a man on second to end the second (-.030). He grounded out to open the fifth (-.014), then drew a walk to open the eighth (+.009), scoring on Castro’s sacrifice fly.

Martin Prado -.054

After a long winter, Martin Prado made his season debut on Friday, batting second. He flew out for the second out of the game (-.015) then struck out to end the third (-.012). He grounded out to open the sixth (-.040) and flew out in the eighth (-.091) with a runner on and nobody out.

Prado batted fifth on Saturday, and came up with one out and the bases loaded. He hit into a sure double-play, but hustled up the baseline to beat the throw and score J.T. Realmuto (+.005). With two outs and a man on second in the third, he hit an RBI-double to right, scoring Starlin Castro (+.101). Later, he struck out for the second out of the fifth (-.006) and hit a leadoff single in the eighth (+.004).

Tomas Telis -.093

Tomas Telis pinch-hit for Jose Urena in the seventh inning on Friday. With runners on first and second with two outs, he grounded out to short (-.093).

J.T. Realmuto -.112

J.T. Realmuto flew out to open the first on Friday (-.022). He flew out again for the second out of the third (-.018). In the fifth, with a runner on second, he grounded out to end the inning (-.050). He hit a leadoff single in the eighth (+.098), but got stranded. He ended the game with two runners on with a fielder’s choice groundout (-.169).

On Saturday, batting second, Realmuto drew a one-out walk in the first (+.024) then stole second (+.016) before scoring. He struck out to lead off the third (-.020). In the fourth, with one out and runners on first and second, he singled (+.025). He then flew out for the first out of the seventh (-.005).

In Sunday’s game, again batting leadoff, Realmuto starts his night at the plate with a groundout (-.022). He hit a one-out single in the third (+.022), then struck out to end the fifth (-.007). He drew a walk to load the bases with no outs in the eighth (+.015).

Cameron Maybin -.115

Cameron Maybin batted sixth on Friday, and drew a one-out walk with a runner on first in the second (+.037). He ended the fourth with a fielders’ choice groundout (-.028). He then struck out for the first out of the seventh with a runner on first (-.071).

On Sunday, batting fifth, Maybin flew out with a runner on first in the second with nobody out (-.035). He flew out for the second out of the fourth (-.015), and drew a walk to lead off the seventh (+.015). He was then caught stealing second base (-.018).

Brian Anderson -.162

Brian Anderson batted cleanup on Friday, and struck out to open the second (-.023). He struck out for the second out of the fourth (-.019) and grounded out to end the sixth (-.019). He struck out for a third time with two on and one out in the eighth (-.119).

Batting fourth again on Saturday, Anderson hit a one-out single with two runners on in the first inning (+.059). He flew out with a runner on second for the second out of the third (-.032) and struck out to open the fifth (-.009). He grounded out to end the seventh (-.003) to close his night at the plate.

Again batting cleanup on Sunday, Anderson singled to leadoff the second inning (+.037) and scored the eventual game-winner on Lewis Brinson’s single. He flew out to open the fourth (-.021), then fouled out to end the sixth (-.007). With two in scoring position in the eighth, he flew out to end the inning (-.007).

Miguel Rojas -.235

Miguel Rojas batted seventh in the order on Friday, and fouled out with two runners on base for the second out of the second inning (-.046). He grounded out to lead off the fifth (-.034) and lined out with a runner on first for the second out of the seventh (-.061). In the ninth, he struck out with a runner on second and nobody out (-.162).

Batting seventh again on Saturday, Rojas flew out to open the second (-.020). He reached base on an error to open the fourth (+.023). Leading off the sixth, he flew out (-.013) and grounded out with a runner on first for the second out of the eighth (-.002).

Rojas moved to sixth in the order on Sunday, and grounded out for the second out of the second, with a runner on first (-.019). He hit a two-out solo home run in the fourth inning (+.112), then struck out for the first out of the seventh (-.014).

Next: Marlins Series Grades vs Dodgers

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Miami Marlins: Grading the Fish vs Colorado Rockies