Miami Marlins Winners and Losers vs Philadelphia Phillies

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After starting the season 5-17, the Miami Marlins have won six of their last eight to climb to 11-19.

That’s better than the Cincinnati Reds, the San Diego Padres, the Baltimore Orioles, the Chicago White Sox, and the Kansas City Royals. Yes. I’m now bragging about being a fan of the 25th best team in baseball. Initial projections have colored Miami Marlins Nation expectations, and labelling this team “not the worst in baseball” may be the best we can hope for. But I digress.

I used the Wins Probability Added metric (WPA) to help ascertain which players performed better (or worse) in the higher leverage situations. In other words, if the Miami Marlins are winning, 6-0, a plate appearance doesn’t count as much. Conversely, an at bat with two on and two out in the bottom of the 13th has a very high leverage.

There’s something else you need to understand about WPA. Every game has a collective WPA of zero. The winning team will finish with a total of .50, and the losing team will have -.50. It doesn’t matter if the two teams combine for 50 runs or it finishes at 1-0, the WPA will still add up to zero. Also of interest, if two clubs split a two game series, each team’s individual WAR will also be a collective zero. At the end of a 162 season, in fact, an 81-81 club will have a mark of, you guessed it, zero.

WPA is not a great predictor of future performance. What it can tell you is which players performed best when the chips were down. As such, it’s a great metric for telling the story of one ballgame, or in this setting, one series. In these games, blowouts both, an early inning plate appearance, when the game was close, is worth much more than a plate appearance near the end. We’re going to take a closer look at Miami’s 22 participants in their series against the Philadelphia Phillies. Click here for a look at their last series, versus the Colorado Rockies.

NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 17: Starlin Castro /

Starlin Castro +.196

Starlin Castro has been Miami’s most consistent hitter through the first part of the season. Up until two days ago, he was leading the NL with 35 hits. After sitting on Wednesday and the Marlins getting Thursday off, he has been passed by Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, and Odubel Herrera.

Castro batted third on Monday, and hit a two-out double in his first at bat (+.036). With nobody out and a man on first in the third inning, he drew a walk (+.068) and later scored. In the fourth inning, he hit a two-out RBI-double (+.106), scoring J.T. Realmuto. He made it a three-hit day with a one out single in the seventh (+.011), later scoring on Brian Anderson’s home run.

Castro was again placed third in the order on Tuesday. He flew out to right field to close the first inning (-.010). He flew out again in the bottom of the fourth (-.013) to end another frame. He singled to right field to open the seventh (+.057). In the ninth, he grounded out for the second out of the inning (-.044).

SEATTLE, WA – APRIL 19: Reliever Jarlin Garcia /

Jarlin Garcia +.162

Jarlin Garcia has been a revelation to the 2018 Miami Marlins. He ranks second in the National League with a 1.09 ERA, fourth in the league with a 0.848 WHIP, and tops the circuit with just 4.091 hits allowed per nine innings.

In Miami’s series against the Phillies, Garcia started in game two. He struck out three in six innings, allowing five hits and a walk for one run. Incredibly, the five hits he surrendered was the most he has in any appearance this year. It was his third quality appearance in four starts, His other start would see him yield one hit in five innings.

Can Garcia keep this up? He hasn’t finished with a negative-WPA in any of his six contests this season, and has appeared in this series-closing article series as a top player five times.

Tayron Guerrero +.157

Tayron Guerrero has struck out 29 players in 15 1/3 innings of relief for the Miami Marlins. He’s averaging 17.0 strikeouts per nine innings, and has a 1.435 WHIP. He’s surrendered 13 hits this season, but has finished with hitless appearances nine times. If his 4.11 ERA seems a little high, you’ll be happy to see he’s racking up a 2.57 FIP. That indicates he’s pitching better than his ERA would indicate. Guerrero also has Major League Baseball’s fastest pitch this season, with a 101.8 MPH fastball on Tuesday.

Guerrero came into Monday’s game to protect an 8-4 eighth-inning lead. He then got Maikel Franco to flyout to center (-.012). He followed that by getting Jorge Alfaro (-.007) and Pedro Florimon (-.003) to strike out swinging.

On Tuesday, Guerrero entered a 1-1 tie to pitch the ninth inning. It was hardly perfect this time, but Guerrero still had a large-net-positive impact by keeping the Phillies off the board. He allowed a Carlos Santana double to left to open the inning (-.172), then Franco flew out to center (+.113). After Scott Kingery took first on an HBP (-.022), Guerrero again struck out Alfaro (+.103) and Florimon (+.113).

JUPITER, FL – FEBRUARY 22: Merandy Gonzalez #77 of the Miami Marlins poses for a portrait at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches on February 22, 2018 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

Merandy Gonzalez +.124

Merandy Gonzalez joined the Marlins lineup on Monday with a 6-4 lead in the fifth inning. He got three groundouts in that frame, from Odubel Herrera (+.028), Aaron Altherr (+.019), and Carlos Santana (+.012). The Marlins left him in for another inning. Scott Kingery flew out to center (+.031) and Maikel Franco grounded out (+.021) before the Phillies touched him. Jorge Alfaro hit a two-out single to right (-.017), but Gonzalez minimized any drama by getting Nick Williams to end the frame with an infield fly (+.030).

MIAMI, FL – MAY 01: Yadiel Rivera #2 of the Miami Marlins celebrates after hitting a walk-off single in the 10th inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Marlins Park on May 1, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

Yadiel Rivera +.124

Yadiel Rivera came into Friday’s game as a pinch-hitter for Merandy Gonzales in the sixth inning. Rivera struck out for the second out of the inning (-.009).

Rivera sat on the bench for nine and a half innings on Tuesday before joining the game in the bottom of the 10th as a pinch hitter. With runners on the corners and the scored tied at one he smacked a walkoff single to score Cameron Maybin (+.177).

Maybe as a reward for his walkoff on Tuesday, Rivera started at shortstop for the Miami Marlins on Wednesday. Batting seventh, he struck out with a man on first for the second out of the second inning (-.031). He struck out again to end the fifth (-.013).

Drew Steckenrider +.105

Drew Steckenrider entered Tuesday’s game with the score tied at one to pitch the eighth inning. No drama at all – as Steckenrider struck out the side. Rhys Hoskins (+.046) went down looking, then Odubel Herrera (+.034) and Aaron Altherr (+.025) went down swinging.

Cameron Maybin +.088

Cameron Maybin was slotted in the six spot to begin the week for Miami. In the opener, he hit a one out single to left in the second inning (+.028), then later scored. Maybin grounded out to move Brian Anderson to third with nobody out in the third inning (-.007). He flew out to center for the second out of the fifth (-.020) and grounded out to end the seventh (-.001).

The Marlins left Maybin at sixth in the order on Tuesday. He flew out to end the second (-.011) and the fifth (-.016). With runners on first and second, he struck out for the second out of the seventh (-.070). In the 10th inning, he hit a one-out triple to center field (+.248), and scored on Rivera’s walkoff.

On Wednesday, Maybin led off. He grounded out to lead off the first (-.023) and flew out for the second out of the third (-.018). He flew out to center for the second out of the sixth (-.023). In the ninth inning, Maybin hit a leadoff single (+.004) but was part of the game ending double-play.

Nick Wittgren +.087

Nick Wittgren pitched Miami’s seventh inning on Monday. With the score tied at one, he got Scott Kingery to fly out (+.039) and Jorge Alfaro (+.028) to strike out. Nick Williams (-.021) touched Wittgren for a single), but Wittgren induced Cesar Hernandez to ground out to end the inning (-.041).

Brian Anderson +.076

Brian Anderson batted fifth for the Marlins on Monday. He grounded out to third to open the second inning (-.025). With two in scoring position and nobody out in the third, he hit a two-run double to right (+.104), then scored on Miguel Rojas’ groundout. He led off the fifth with a single (+.022) and added a two-run homer with two outs in the seventh (+.088).

Batting fifth again on Tuesday, Anderson struck out for the second out of the second inning (-.016). He struck out again for the second out of the fifth (-.024). With one out and a man on first in the seventh, he singled (+.056). He struck out swinging to open the 10th (-.057).

In no big surprise to anyone, Anderson batted fifth on Wednesday, and struck out with two runners on to end the first. He ended the fourth by striking out (-.012) and grounded out to end the seventh (-.016).

Kyle Barraclough +.069

Kyle Barraclough had a wild time of it, but held the Phillies scoreless in his Monday appearance.

Barraclough entered the game with a 6-4 lead to pitch the seventh inning. He walked Cesar Hernandez (-.059) then got Rhys Hoskins to strike out (+.053). Odubel Herrera singled to left (-.061), then advanced to second on a wild pitch (-.069). Aaron Altherr walked to load the bases (+.029). Carlos Santana flew out to Brian Anderson in shallow right field (+.117) and Scott Kingery grounded into a force out to end the possible damage (+.118).

Justin Bour +.068

Justin Bour was sitting out with back spasms to open the series, but he entered Monday’s game as an eighth-inning pinch hitter. With two outs and a runner on first, he flew out to center (-.002).

On Tuesday, Bour entered the game as a pinch-hitter for Jarlin Garcia in the sixth inning, and hit a two-out, solo home run (+.196) to tie the game at one. He struck out for the second out of the eighth (-.034).

On Wednesday, the Marlins slotted Bour back in the cleanup spot. He flew out with two on and one out in the first (-.047). He struck out for the second out of the fourth (-.019) and grounded out for the second out of the seventh (-.026).

Junichi Tazawa +.045

Junichi Tazawa entered Tuesday’s game as a 10th inning reliever. Cesar Hernandez flew out (+.058), then Rhys Hoskins walked (-.059). Odubel Herrera flew out (+.072), then Aaron Altherr singled (-.049). Carlos Santana loaded the bases with a walk (-.057). Maikel Franco shot a line drive straight at Miguel Rojas to end the inning (+.170).

On Wednesday, Tazawa pitched the eighth, trailing by a 2-0 count. He allowed a single to Altherr to start out (-.018) then got Santana to fly out (+.017). Franco doubled to score Altherr (-.080) and Florimon grounded out to score Franco (-.011). Alfaro struck out to end it (+.002).

Miguel Rojas +.017

Miguel Rojas singled in the second with one out and a runner on first (+.070), then stole second (+.024). In the third, he hit a one-out RBI-groundout to score Brian Anderson (+.021). He ended the fifth with a double-play groundout (-.033). He pop fouled it to the catcher to open the eighth (+.001).

Batting seventh on Tuesday, Rojas opened the third with a groundout (-.025). He led off the sixth with a double (+.109), but was caught and erased on a 2-5-6-5 rundown. He grounded out with two on to end the seventh (-.074) and drew an intentional walk with one out in the 10th (+.004).

Batting sixth in the series finale, Rojas led off the second with a single (+.041) then got immediately TOOTBLAN’d by getting picked off (-.065). Rojas flew out to left in the fifth (-.031) and grounded out to open the eighth (-.015).

Brad Ziegler +.014

Brad Ziegler held on to a four-run lead in the ninth on Monday. He got Cesar Hernandez (+.009), Rhys Hoskins (+.004) and Odubel Herrera (+.001) to ground out to end the game in a non-save situation.

Jose Urena +.007

Jose Urena started game three for the Marlins, and was the only Miami player to finish with a positive WPA. He lasted seven innings and struck out six, allowing one walk and seven hits for just one run. His performance on the mound actually gave Miami at .068 WPA, but his 0-for-2 performance at the plate was worth -.061.

Dillon Peters -.011

Derek Dietrich -.067

JB Shuck -.076

J.T. Realmuto -.125

Martin Prado -.144

Dan Straily -.192

Lewis Brinson -.223

Next: Grading Miami vs the Rockies

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Miami Marlins: Winners and Losers vs Phillies