Miami Marlins Top Performers Against Cincinnati Reds

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MIAMI, FL – APRIL 28: Kyle Barraclough #46 of the Miami Marlins throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Marlins Park on April 28, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images) /

For this series of articles, I use the Wins Probability Added metric (WPA) to help ascertain which players performed better (or worse) in the higher leverage situations. In other words, if the Miami Marlins are winning, 6-0, a plate appearance doesn’t count as much. Conversely, an at bat with two on and two out in the bottom of the 13th has a very high leverage. Read our post-Phillies article, here.

There’s something else you need to understand about WPA. Every game has a collective WPA of zero. The winning team will finish with a total of .50, and the losing team will have -.50. It doesn’t matter if the two teams combine for 50 runs or it finishes at 1-0, the WPA will still add up to zero. Also of interest, if two clubs split a two game series, each team’s individual WAR will also be a collective zero. At the end of a 162 season, in fact, an 81-81 club will have a mark of, you guessed it, zero.

WPA is not a great predictor of future performance. What it can tell you is which players performed best when the chips were down. As such, it’s a great metric for telling the story of one ballgame, or in this setting, one series. In these games, blowouts both, an early inning plate appearance, when the game was close, is worth much more than a plate appearance near the end. We’re going to take a closer look at Miami’s 21 participants in their series against the Cincinnati Reds.

Caleb Smith +.242

Caleb Smith started the second game of the series against the Reds. In his previous two starts, he had struck out 19 in 13 innings, and allowed only four hits and one intentional walk.

In Smith’s start in the Great American Ballpark, it was more of the same. From my earlier synopsis of Miami’s win on Saturday:

Caleb Smith pitched neat and clean for 5 2/3 innings, earning a 73 GameScore with seven strikeouts. He allowed no runs on three hits and a walk. Smith has now allowed seven hits and two walks while striking out 26 in his last 18 2/3 innings. That’s a three-game opposing slashline split of .125/.155/.143 for those of you counting. The stretch has lowered his ERA from 6.89 to 3.67 and his WHIP from 1.979 down to 1.165. He also has 48 K’s over 34 1/3 innings for the season, that’s 12.58 K’s per nine innings.

So, yeah. Can I legally quote myself without citing my source? Seems pretty meta. Just maybe this guy is the real deal, and that guy who started the season walking 15 batters in 15 2/3 innings is the pretender. Let’s hope so.

We’ve seen a lot of good results from Miami’s starting rotation lately. Not only has Smith been on point, but Jarlin Garcia has thrown open the door and put his arm into the mix. Add to that solid showings from Jose Urena, Dillon Peters, and Trevor Richards, and you’ve got the makings of the future of the Miami Marlins rotation.

CINCINNATI, OH – MAY 5: Starlin Castro #13 of the Miami Marlins hits an RBI double during the eighth inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on May 5, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Miami defeated Cincinnati 6-0. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) /

Starlin Castro +.195

Starlin Castro continued to show a penchant for collecting RBI and for timely hitting. He also hit the 100th home run of his career.

In the series opener, Castro batted third and drew a two-out walk in the first inning (+.012). Later, he led off the fourth with a foul-out (-.018). He flew out to right with runners on corners and nobody out in the sixth (-.073). In the eighth, he struck out to end the inning (-.007).

Game two would start out with a bang for Castro. With Martin Prado on first and one out in the opening inning, he went deep off Reds starter Tyler Mahle (+.164). It was his first home run as a Miami Marlins player and the 100th overall of his career. He reached on an error with one out in the third (+.033), but got picked off to end the inning (-.027). Castro flew out to center for the second out of the sixth (-.013). With two on and one out in the eighth, Castro doubled in JB Shuck to give the Marlins a 4-0 lead (+.039). He later scored on Brian Anderson‘s single.

Batting third in the series finale on Sunday, Castro hit a two-RBI single in the first inning (+.076). He scored on Cameron Maybin’s single later in the inning. With one out and a runner on third in the second, he collected another RBI with a sacrifice fly (+.013). With two on in the fourth, he struck out to end the inning (-.026). He hit a single to lead off the seventh (+.014), then took second on a passed ball (+.012). He scored on Maybin’s double. Castro struck out to end the eighth (-.004).

Castro ended the series with six RBI, and his 16 for the season ranks second on the Miami Marlins.

LOS ANGELES, CA – APRIL 24: Nick Wittgren /

Nick Wittgren +.127

Nick Wittgren got into two of the three games against Cincinnati, and the Miami Marlins went 1-1 in his appearances.

Wittgren pitched the seventh inning in the series opener on Friday. He struck out Joey Votto (+.006) and Eugenio Suarez (+.004) to open the inning. He ended by getting Adam Duvall to fly out (+.003).

In Sunday’s game, Wittgren entered after the one hour and 13 minute rain delay, relieving starter Dan Straily. He got Jesse Winker to ground out (+.027) to start things out. He then got strikeouts out of Votto (+.018) and Scooter Gennett (+.011). He remained in the game for the sixth, and got a groundout from Suarez (+.028) before whiffing Scott Schebler (+.019). He allowed Tucker Barnhart to single (-.015) then struck out Duvall (+.026).

Wittgren has been pretty good since joining the team in mid-April. He has a 1.00 ERA in nine innings pitched, with 14 strikeouts and a 1.222 WHIP.

MILWAUKEE, WI – SEPTEMBER 16: Drew Steckenrider /

Drew Steckenrider +.109

Drew Steckenrider has been a constant and consistent force for positive results out of the Miami Marlins bullpen in 2018. His seasonal total WPA of .993 is second only to Jarlin Garcia.

Steckenrider only got into one of the three games versus the Reds for the Marlins, the 6-0 victory on Saturday. He relieved starter Caleb Smith with two outs and two on in the sixth inning, and got Eugenio Suarez to fly out (+.051). He remained in the game for the seventh. Adam Duvall lined out (+.029), Scooter Gennett grounded out (-.019), and Scott Schebler struck out (-.010).

Steckenrider has 22 strikeouts in 16 innings so far, and has walked only three along with nine hits. His 1.35 FIP suggests that it’s not just fools gold we’re looking at, and his 0.750 WHIP leads the club.

Steckenrider, Kyle Barraclough, and Tayron Guerrero have struck out 75 batters in 46 innings between them. That’s a 14.67 whiff rate / 9 IP.

MIAMI, FL – MAY 01: Cameron Maybin #1 of the Miami Marlins hits a triple in the 10th inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Marlins Park on May 1, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

Cameron Maybin +.094

Cameron Maybin has appeared in 32 of Miami’s 33 games this season. That trails only Miguel Rojas, Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro, and Derek Dietrich.

Maybin got his first night of the season off on Friday as the Reds downed the Miami Marlins, 4-1. In Saturday’s game, he grounded out in a pinch hit appearance in the eighth inning, with one out and two runners in scoring position (-.013).

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In Sunday’s game, Maybin batted sixth and started his night with an RBI-single to left (+.053). The hit gave the Marlins a 3-0 lead. He grounded out to shortstop for the second out of the third (-.005). In the fifth, he drew first by way of HBP with two outs (+.007), then took second on a balk (+.006). He was stranded when Lewis Brinson struck out. With one out and two on in the seventh, he hit an RBI-double to left (+.054). Later, he struck out with runners on the corners and nobody out (-.008) in the ninth.

Here’s the rest of the cast.

Kyle Barraclough +.063

Justin Bour +.053

Brad Ziegler +.051

Merandy Gonzalez +.041

Dan Straily +.041

Derek Dietrich +.034

J.T. Realmuto +.012

Tayron Guerrero +.001

JB Shuck -.019

Yadiel Rivera -.024

Junichi Tazawa -.032

Brian Anderson -.037

Lewis Brinson -.041

Martin Prado -.070

Miguel Rojas -.087

Wei-Yin Chen -.254

Next: Miami's Sunday Walk in the (Great American Ball) Park

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