Miami Marlins Series Preview vs Atlanta Braves

Friday- Brandon McCarthy vs. Dan Straily

Straily

Dan Straily is taking the ball against the Braves in his third start of the year for the Marlins. In his first two starts after returning for forearm inflammation, Straily did not impress.

His ERA is currently sitting at 6.75 and he has allowed eight walks to only three strikeouts. So far, Straily’s lack of ability to find the strike zone has resulted in a high amount of fastballs from the right-hander.

In 2017, Straily threw 50.5% fastballs and through two starts in 2018, he is throwing his fastball 60% of the time.

It is very common for a pitcher struggling with his command to rely on his fastball. While the fastball is the easiest pitch for a pitcher to control, it is also the easiest pitch for a hitter to hit, and Straily’s fastball has been hit hard through two starts.

The average exit velocity on a Straily fastball is 91.71 MPH compared to 89.05 MPH league average exit velocity on fastballs.

The biggest key for Straily to find success in 2018 is being able to find the zone on a consistent basis. Throughout his career, Straily has always been below average when it comes to his walk rates, but his first two starts in 2018 have been concerning.

Pounding the strike zone and showing the ability to locate will also give Straily and the coaching staff the confidence to mix up his pitches. The more Straily mixes his pitches, hitters will have to stop sitting on the fastball which will help bring his exit velocity back down to Earth.

McCarthy

The Marlins opposition on Friday night will be the 13-year veteran, Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy came over to the Braves this offseason in the massive salary swap that sent Matt Kemp back to Los Angeles.

McCarthy is 4-1 with a 4.84 ERA on the season. He is also the only starting pitcher above the age of 26 that the Marlins will be facing this series.

Saturday- Mike Soroka vs. Jarlin Garcia

Garcia

Jarlin Garica took the Marlins community by storm through his first four starts with the club. In his first start against the Mets, Garcia tossed 6 no-hit innings before handing the ball over to Drew Steckenrider who gave up a two-out single to Todd Frazier in the seventh inning.

He followed this up with 4.1 no-hit innings against the Yankees before allowing a hit. This inspired a FanGraphs post about “Hidden No-Hitters”  centered around the Marlins’ lefty.

Through five starts the only team that has been able to hit him has been the Cubs. On Monday, the Cubs lit Garcia up for seven runs on six hits in four innings pitched.

Although Garcia has had a lot of success, his underlying metrics point to an oncoming regression. His ERA now sits at 2.68 which is 20th in all of baseball, but it may rise over his next few starts.

The problem is his lack of ability to miss bats and high walk rates. Out of 91 qualified pitchers, he has the 15th lowest strikeout rate and 30th highest walk rate. This has led to a bloated xFIP which is the 20th highest in baseball.

This high xFIP is an indication that Garcia has pitched over his head at the beginning of the season.

While I believe that Garcia will be a very valuable arm for the Marlins this season, if I have to pick a Marlins lefty between Garcia and Smith to put my stock in, I would have to bank on Smith.

Soroka

Mike Soroka was a name that I highlighted in my J.T. Realmuto trade article, and I said that he could be pitching in the Bigs sooner rather than later.

Welp, here we are just over a week later having to face the young righty. Soroka is rated as the third prospect in the Braves system and the no. 29 prospect in all of baseball by MLB.com.

Soroka has three plus pitches to go along with plus control. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s with heavy sink, he also has a slider and a change-up that he plays off of his fastball.

In his first two starts, Soroka has thrown his fastball a lot. Look for more of the same on Saturday as he tries to neutralize the Marlins’ bats through ground ball outs.

Sunday- Sean Newcomb vs. Jose Ureña

Ureña

Watch out for Jose Ureña, he seems to have figured some things out since that Opening Day start against the Cubs.

Even though Ureña has yet to record a win, he is currently pitching better than he did in 2017 where he was the best pitcher on the Marlins staff. His xFip sits at, 4.31(compared to 5.29 in 2017) and is on a downward trend ever since his first start.

The biggest thing that stands out in Ureña’s game is his lowered walk rate and higher strikeout rates. He lowered his walk rates from 3.39 per nine in 2017 to 2.18 in 2018. His strikeout rates have also taken a big jump, going from 5.99 K/9 in 2017 to 7.54 K/9 in 2018.

Ureña has always had good stuff, but now everything seems to be coming together. His velocity has ticked up slightly, he is throwing his slider more and he is getting batters to chase pitches outside of the zone at a much higher rate.

Ureña’s slider has been a really effective pitch for him in 2018, the increased usage has led to positive results. Keep an eye on Ureña to see if he can take that next step in his career and turn himself into a true Ace of this Marlins staff.

Newcomb

After getting drafted with the 15th pick of the MLB Draft out of the University of Hartford in Connecticut, Newcomb shot up the prospect rankings with the Angels. He made his way to Atlanta as the centerpiece in the Andrelton Simmons deal.

If the beginning of 2018 is any indication, Braves made the right choice. Newcomb is really hard to hit, he has a big frame and a really good fastball, curveball combo.

He also brought an improved changeup into 2018 and he has attributed it to his success so far. Over his last two starts, he is looking like Greg Maddux, which is very good company for Newcomb to be in.

Braves Notes

Acuña and Albies

If the Marlins are going to do anything this series, they must work to neutralize the dynamic young duo of Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies.

Acuña was the no. 1 prospect in baseball coming into the year and in 12 games since being called up, all he has done is hit. He is currently hitting .328/.358/.600 with three home runs.

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As for Albies, he leads the league in doubles and is tied for fourth in the National League in home runs with ten. He has built on what he showed as a 20-year-old in 2017 when he had an OPS+ of 112 in 57 games, this year, Albies has an OPS+ of 146.

The Rebuild

After the 2014 season, the Braves completely tore their roster down and rebuilt from the bottom in a very similar way to what the Marlins are attempting to do.

After building up their farm system,  the Braves are currently competing ahead of schedule. They have great young pitching just arriving in the majors and more help is coming on the way. The pitching to go along with their exciting combo of Acuña and Albies and do not forget about the ever-steady Freddie Freeman is a scary sight.

Next: Miami Marlins Should Sign Matt Harvey

The Braves are again a threat in the N.L. East for years to come and we as Marlins fans should use this series to familiarize ourselves with our rival as well as look to the Braves as a sign of hope.