Miami Marlins Series Preview vs Atlanta Braves

After getting swept in a three-game series at Wrigley where the Marlins were outscored by the Cubs 30-9, the Fish are looking to rebound against a hot Braves team.

The  Braves are currently sitting in first place in the N.L. East with a record of 20-14 and their duo of Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies are turning heads across the nation. The biggest key for the Marlins this series will be to slow down Atlanta’s potent bats.

Thursday- Mike Foltynewicz vs. Caleb Smith

Smith

Major League Baseball’s newest strikeout artist takes the mound for the Marlins in the first game of this four-game set. Smith’s 2018 has been a rather interesting one, he currently has the fourth highest K/9 rate in all of baseball (min. 30 IP) behind Max Scherzer, Garret Cole and James Paxton.

What is interesting about this is the fact that Smith doesn’t throw prototypical high strikeout stuff. He features a fastball that averages 92.7 MPH, a slider as his secondary pitch and an average change up that he throws mostly to righties.

While Smith’s fastball does have a relatively high spin rate and his slider has good depth and late break, expect his early season strikeout numbers to regress towards the mean. Across his minor and major league career, he has never had a season where he averaged more than 9.90 K/9.

With that being said, I believe that Smith is the real deal. His xFip indicates that he is an above average pitcher and his ERA that is sitting at 3.67 concurs. So far on the year, Smith’s kryptonite has been the number of baserunners he has allowed via the free pass.

Smith currently has the tenth highest BB/9 mark in the Major League Baseball. If/when his strikeout rate does fall, Smith will have to find ways to combat his walk problems.

Craig Edwards of FanGraphs recently wrote a great article that compares Smith to Diamondbacks hurler, Robbie Ray. Both are high walk, high strikeout pitchers with similar profiles.

If Smith can carve out a role similar to the one that Ray has had with the D-Backs, the 26-year-old lefty could be a key in the Marlins rebuild.

Foltynewicz

The Marlins are going against their own tough task in Mike Foltynewicz. The former top prospect is pitching the best he has in his major league career to date. His calling card is his blistering fastball that averages 96.11 MPH.

Foltynewicz has increased the use of his fastball this year and decreased the usage rate of his sinker, which has led to success. Look out of more of the same in Miami on Thursday.

Saturday- Mike Soroka vs. Jarlin Garcia

Garcia

Jarlin Garica took the Marlins community by storm through his first four starts with the club. In his first start against the Mets, Garcia tossed 6 no-hit innings before handing the ball over to Drew Steckenrider who gave up a two-out single to Todd Frazier in the seventh inning.

He followed this up with 4.1 no-hit innings against the Yankees before allowing a hit. This inspired a FanGraphs post about “Hidden No-Hitters”  centered around the Marlins’ lefty.

Through five starts the only team that has been able to hit him has been the Cubs. On Monday, the Cubs lit Garcia up for seven runs on six hits in four innings pitched.

Although Garcia has had a lot of success, his underlying metrics point to an oncoming regression. His ERA now sits at 2.68 which is 20th in all of baseball, but it may rise over his next few starts.

The problem is his lack of ability to miss bats and high walk rates. Out of 91 qualified pitchers, he has the 15th lowest strikeout rate and 30th highest walk rate. This has led to a bloated xFIP which is the 20th highest in baseball.

This high xFIP is an indication that Garcia has pitched over his head at the beginning of the season.

While I believe that Garcia will be a very valuable arm for the Marlins this season, if I have to pick a Marlins lefty between Garcia and Smith to put my stock in, I would have to bank on Smith.

Soroka

Mike Soroka was a name that I highlighted in my J.T. Realmuto trade article, and I said that he could be pitching in the Bigs sooner rather than later.

Welp, here we are just over a week later having to face the young righty. Soroka is rated as the third prospect in the Braves system and the no. 29 prospect in all of baseball by MLB.com.

Soroka has three plus pitches to go along with plus control. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s with heavy sink, he also has a slider and a change-up that he plays off of his fastball.

In his first two starts, Soroka has thrown his fastball a lot. Look for more of the same on Saturday as he tries to neutralize the Marlins’ bats through ground ball outs.

Sunday- Sean Newcomb vs. Jose Ureña

Ureña

Watch out for Jose Ureña, he seems to have figured some things out since that Opening Day start against the Cubs.

Even though Ureña has yet to record a win, he is currently pitching better than he did in 2017 where he was the best pitcher on the Marlins staff. His xFip sits at, 4.31(compared to 5.29 in 2017) and is on a downward trend ever since his first start.

The biggest thing that stands out in Ureña’s game is his lowered walk rate and higher strikeout rates. He lowered his walk rates from 3.39 per nine in 2017 to 2.18 in 2018. His strikeout rates have also taken a big jump, going from 5.99 K/9 in 2017 to 7.54 K/9 in 2018.

Ureña has always had good stuff, but now everything seems to be coming together. His velocity has ticked up slightly, he is throwing his slider more and he is getting batters to chase pitches outside of the zone at a much higher rate.

Ureña’s slider has been a really effective pitch for him in 2018, the increased usage has led to positive results. Keep an eye on Ureña to see if he can take that next step in his career and turn himself into a true Ace of this Marlins staff.

Newcomb

After getting drafted with the 15th pick of the MLB Draft out of the University of Hartford in Connecticut, Newcomb shot up the prospect rankings with the Angels. He made his way to Atlanta as the centerpiece in the Andrelton Simmons deal.

If the beginning of 2018 is any indication, Braves made the right choice. Newcomb is really hard to hit, he has a big frame and a really good fastball, curveball combo.

He also brought an improved changeup into 2018 and he has attributed it to his success so far. Over his last two starts, he is looking like Greg Maddux, which is very good company for Newcomb to be in.

Braves Notes

Acuña and Albies

If the Marlins are going to do anything this series, they must work to neutralize the dynamic young duo of Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies.

Acuña was the no. 1 prospect in baseball coming into the year and in 12 games since being called up, all he has done is hit. He is currently hitting .328/.358/.600 with three home runs.

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As for Albies, he leads the league in doubles and is tied for fourth in the National League in home runs with ten. He has built on what he showed as a 20-year-old in 2017 when he had an OPS+ of 112 in 57 games, this year, Albies has an OPS+ of 146.

The Rebuild

After the 2014 season, the Braves completely tore their roster down and rebuilt from the bottom in a very similar way to what the Marlins are attempting to do.

After building up their farm system,  the Braves are currently competing ahead of schedule. They have great young pitching just arriving in the majors and more help is coming on the way. The pitching to go along with their exciting combo of Acuña and Albies and do not forget about the ever-steady Freddie Freeman is a scary sight.

Next: Miami Marlins Should Sign Matt Harvey

The Braves are again a threat in the N.L. East for years to come and we as Marlins fans should use this series to familiarize ourselves with our rival as well as look to the Braves as a sign of hope.