Miami Marlins Series Preview vs Atlanta Braves

After getting swept in a three-game series at Wrigley where the Marlins were outscored by the Cubs 30-9, the Fish are looking to rebound against a hot Braves team.

The  Braves are currently sitting in first place in the N.L. East with a record of 20-14 and their duo of Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies are turning heads across the nation. The biggest key for the Marlins this series will be to slow down Atlanta’s potent bats.

Thursday- Mike Foltynewicz vs. Caleb Smith

Smith

Major League Baseball’s newest strikeout artist takes the mound for the Marlins in the first game of this four-game set. Smith’s 2018 has been a rather interesting one, he currently has the fourth highest K/9 rate in all of baseball (min. 30 IP) behind Max Scherzer, Garret Cole and James Paxton.

What is interesting about this is the fact that Smith doesn’t throw prototypical high strikeout stuff. He features a fastball that averages 92.7 MPH, a slider as his secondary pitch and an average change up that he throws mostly to righties.

While Smith’s fastball does have a relatively high spin rate and his slider has good depth and late break, expect his early season strikeout numbers to regress towards the mean. Across his minor and major league career, he has never had a season where he averaged more than 9.90 K/9.

With that being said, I believe that Smith is the real deal. His xFip indicates that he is an above average pitcher and his ERA that is sitting at 3.67 concurs. So far on the year, Smith’s kryptonite has been the number of baserunners he has allowed via the free pass.

Smith currently has the tenth highest BB/9 mark in the Major League Baseball. If/when his strikeout rate does fall, Smith will have to find ways to combat his walk problems.

Craig Edwards of FanGraphs recently wrote a great article that compares Smith to Diamondbacks hurler, Robbie Ray. Both are high walk, high strikeout pitchers with similar profiles.

If Smith can carve out a role similar to the one that Ray has had with the D-Backs, the 26-year-old lefty could be a key in the Marlins rebuild.

Foltynewicz

The Marlins are going against their own tough task in Mike Foltynewicz. The former top prospect is pitching the best he has in his major league career to date. His calling card is his blistering fastball that averages 96.11 MPH.

Foltynewicz has increased the use of his fastball this year and decreased the usage rate of his sinker, which has led to success. Look out of more of the same in Miami on Thursday.

Friday- Brandon McCarthy vs. Dan Straily

Straily

Dan Straily is taking the ball against the Braves in his third start of the year for the Marlins. In his first two starts after returning for forearm inflammation, Straily did not impress.

His ERA is currently sitting at 6.75 and he has allowed eight walks to only three strikeouts. So far, Straily’s lack of ability to find the strike zone has resulted in a high amount of fastballs from the right-hander.

In 2017, Straily threw 50.5% fastballs and through two starts in 2018, he is throwing his fastball 60% of the time.

It is very common for a pitcher struggling with his command to rely on his fastball. While the fastball is the easiest pitch for a pitcher to control, it is also the easiest pitch for a hitter to hit, and Straily’s fastball has been hit hard through two starts.

The average exit velocity on a Straily fastball is 91.71 MPH compared to 89.05 MPH league average exit velocity on fastballs.

The biggest key for Straily to find success in 2018 is being able to find the zone on a consistent basis. Throughout his career, Straily has always been below average when it comes to his walk rates, but his first two starts in 2018 have been concerning.

Pounding the strike zone and showing the ability to locate will also give Straily and the coaching staff the confidence to mix up his pitches. The more Straily mixes his pitches, hitters will have to stop sitting on the fastball which will help bring his exit velocity back down to Earth.

McCarthy

The Marlins opposition on Friday night will be the 13-year veteran, Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy came over to the Braves this offseason in the massive salary swap that sent Matt Kemp back to Los Angeles.

McCarthy is 4-1 with a 4.84 ERA on the season. He is also the only starting pitcher above the age of 26 that the Marlins will be facing this series.

Sunday- Sean Newcomb vs. Jose Ureña

Ureña

Watch out for Jose Ureña, he seems to have figured some things out since that Opening Day start against the Cubs.

Even though Ureña has yet to record a win, he is currently pitching better than he did in 2017 where he was the best pitcher on the Marlins staff. His xFip sits at, 4.31(compared to 5.29 in 2017) and is on a downward trend ever since his first start.

The biggest thing that stands out in Ureña’s game is his lowered walk rate and higher strikeout rates. He lowered his walk rates from 3.39 per nine in 2017 to 2.18 in 2018. His strikeout rates have also taken a big jump, going from 5.99 K/9 in 2017 to 7.54 K/9 in 2018.

Ureña has always had good stuff, but now everything seems to be coming together. His velocity has ticked up slightly, he is throwing his slider more and he is getting batters to chase pitches outside of the zone at a much higher rate.

Ureña’s slider has been a really effective pitch for him in 2018, the increased usage has led to positive results. Keep an eye on Ureña to see if he can take that next step in his career and turn himself into a true Ace of this Marlins staff.

Newcomb

After getting drafted with the 15th pick of the MLB Draft out of the University of Hartford in Connecticut, Newcomb shot up the prospect rankings with the Angels. He made his way to Atlanta as the centerpiece in the Andrelton Simmons deal.

If the beginning of 2018 is any indication, Braves made the right choice. Newcomb is really hard to hit, he has a big frame and a really good fastball, curveball combo.

He also brought an improved changeup into 2018 and he has attributed it to his success so far. Over his last two starts, he is looking like Greg Maddux, which is very good company for Newcomb to be in.

Braves Notes

Acuña and Albies

If the Marlins are going to do anything this series, they must work to neutralize the dynamic young duo of Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies.

Acuña was the no. 1 prospect in baseball coming into the year and in 12 games since being called up, all he has done is hit. He is currently hitting .328/.358/.600 with three home runs.

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As for Albies, he leads the league in doubles and is tied for fourth in the National League in home runs with ten. He has built on what he showed as a 20-year-old in 2017 when he had an OPS+ of 112 in 57 games, this year, Albies has an OPS+ of 146.

The Rebuild

After the 2014 season, the Braves completely tore their roster down and rebuilt from the bottom in a very similar way to what the Marlins are attempting to do.

After building up their farm system,  the Braves are currently competing ahead of schedule. They have great young pitching just arriving in the majors and more help is coming on the way. The pitching to go along with their exciting combo of Acuña and Albies and do not forget about the ever-steady Freddie Freeman is a scary sight.

Next: Miami Marlins Should Sign Matt Harvey

The Braves are again a threat in the N.L. East for years to come and we as Marlins fans should use this series to familiarize ourselves with our rival as well as look to the Braves as a sign of hope.