Miami Marlins: Realmuto, Ziegler Big Winners vs Dodgers

Earlier this season, the Miami Marlins defeated the defending National League Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, two-games-to-one. In three games this week, they did it again to claim the season series.

For this series of articles, I use the Wins Probability Added metric (WPA) to help ascertain which players performed better (or worse) in the higher leverage situations. In other words, if the Miami Marlins are winning, 6-0, a plate appearance doesn’t count as much. Conversely, an at bat with two on and two out in the bottom of the 13th has a very high leverage.

There’s something else you need to understand about WPA. Every game has a collective WPA of zero. The winning team will finish with a total of .50, and the losing team will have -.50. It doesn’t matter if the two teams combine for 50 runs or it finishes at 1-0, the WPA will still add up to zero. Also of interest, if two clubs split a two game series, each team’s individual WAR will also be a collective zero. At the end of a 162 season, in fact, an 81-81 club will have a mark of, you guessed it, zero.

WPA is not a great predictor of future performance. What it can tell you is which players performed best when the chips were down. As such, it’s a great metric for telling the story of one ballgame, or in this setting, one series. In these games, blowouts both, an early inning plate appearance, when the game was close, is worth much more than a plate appearance near the end. We’re going to take a closer look at Miami’s 22 participants in their series versus the Dodgers.

J.T. Realmuto +.267

J.T. Realmuto topped all Miami players with an overall positive WPA impact of +.267. In the series opener on Tuesday night, he batted second and opened the game with a single to left, moving Martin Prado to second base (+.054). He struck out for the second out of the third (-.014). With one out and a man on first in the fifth, he hit an infield single, again moving Prado to second (+.021). He added a two out RBI-double in the seventh (+.099) to give Miami a 4-1 lead.

In game two, on Wednesday, Realmuto struck out with a runner on first for the first out of the first inning (-.033). With nobody out and Prado on first in the third, Realmuto grounded out to move Prado to second (-.014). He then grounded to lead off the fifth (-.021). With two out in the sixth, Realmuto collected the eventual game-winning RBI, in the form of his sixth homer of the season (+.192).

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On Thursday, Realmuto sat out most of the game before getting called on to pinch hit in the ninth. Hitting in Tyler Cloyd’s spot, Realmuto struck out looking to lead off the inning (-.001).

Brad Ziegler +.192

Brad Ziegler came into the series opener on Tuesday to nail down the save. With a 4-1 lead, he got Yasmani Grandal to fly out (+.019) to lead things off. Cody Bellinger followed with a solo home run (-.021), but the Dodgers couldn’t get anything else going. Ziegler then got Logan Forsythe to groundout (+.023) and struck out Yasiel Puig (+.011) to end it.

On Wednesday, Ziegler was again called on to get the Marlins off with a win. He inherited a 6-5 lead, and promptly allowed Chase Utley to single (-.115). Joc Pederson flew out next (+.106). Ziegler then got Justin Turner to ground out 6-4-3 to end the game (+.169) without further drama.

Nick Wittgren +.177

Nick Wittgren only appeared for 1 2/3 innings through the series, but he had a lot of positive impact. He entered the opener on Tuesday to relieve Wei-Yin Chen with one out and two runners on in the fifth. Protecting a 2-0 lead, he started by getting Joc Pederson to fly out (+.037), although both runners advanced. He ended the frame by inducing Justin Turner into a hard lineout to Martin Prado (+.076).

Miami Marlins manager Don Mattingly kept Wittgren in the game to pitch the sixth. Wittgren got Matt Kemp to ground out (+.031), Yasmani Grandal to fly out (+.021), and Cody Bellinger to fly out (+.013). He left the game as he found it, with the Marlins leading by a 2-0 count. The Marlins eventually won that one, 4-2.

Justin Bour +.171

Justin Bour was placed fifth in the lineup for the opener on Tuesday. With two outs, one in, and one on first in the first, Bour struck out (-.019). With nobody out and a runner on first in the fourth, he singled to center field (+.048). He singled again to lead off the sixth (+.019) and flew out to lead off the eighth (-.003).

In game two, Bour batted cleanup, and drew a one-out walk with a man on first in the first (+.019). With a runner on first and one out in the third, he struck out (-.019). With one out and a man on in the fifth, he hit his ninth home run of the season (+.167) to give the Marlins a 4-1 lead. With a runner on second and two outs in the sixth, the Dodgers issued Bour a intentional walk (+.007). Bour struck out with two men on base to end the eighth (-.025).

Bour was moved up to third in the order on Thursday to close the series. He flew out to close the first (-.010), flew out to open the fourth (-.006), and flew out to open the seventh (-.003). With two runners on in the ninth, he struck out for the second out of the inning (-.002).

Elieser Hernandez +.127

Elieser Hernandez made his first ever major league start for the Miami Marlins on Wednesday. That’s pretty impressive, especially when you consider that he hadn’t pitched above high-A level prior to this season.

Hernandez went five good innings, holding the Dodgers to three hits and a walk (+.177). He struck out two, and allowed a run only on Yasmani Grandal’s solo round-tripper. His positive impact was tempered slightly by his performance at the plate, in which he went 0-for-2 with a strikeout (-.050). Read more about Hernandez here.

Brian Anderson +.117

4-for-10 with two runs and two RBI.

Yadiel Rivera +.074

2-for-2 with a run.

Derek Dietrich +.063

2-for-5 with a walk.

Wei-Yin Chen +.044

Pitched 4 1/3 innings, allowed three hits and three walks for no runs. Struck out three.

Tyler Cloyd +.005

Pitched five shutout innings of relief on Thursday, then got optioned.

Starlin Castro -.007

4-for-10 with a walk, a run, and an RBI.

Bryan Holaday -.021

Went 0-for-3 on Thursday.

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Cameron Maybin -.025

Went 2-for-7.

Tayron Guerrero -.029

Allowed a homer in an otherwise spotless inning on Tuesday.

Martin Prado -.053

3-for-10 with a walk and three runs.

Miguel Rojas -.054

1-for-8 with two RBI.

Lewis Brinson -.056

1-for-9 with four strikeouts.

J.B. Shuck -.067

1-for-5.

Drew Steckenrider -.109

Struck out four in 1 2/3 innings on Wednesday. Allowed a run on three hits and no walks.

Junichi Tazawa -.230

Allowed six runs on seven hits and a walk, striking out two in 1 1/3 innings. Closed the series with a DFA.

Caleb Smith -.247

Started on Thursday and lost. Went three innings, and allowed four earned runs on two hits and four walks. Struck out four.

Next: More on Tazawa's DFA

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