Miami Marlins Meltdown: Six Takeaways From Atlanta

Any Miami Marlins Maniac has to feel sucker-punched by what went down in the 9th inning of Sunday’s 10-9 walkoff loss to the Atlanta Braves. Even in a season when expectations are lower than low, you want your team to win every winnable game.

This was not a winnable game…it was a WON game. The Braves had a mop-up pitcher in the game and they had already had two rally attempts in the late innings come up short. The Miami Marlins had WON this game…or so we thought.

To help sooth our collective hurting, I’d like to offer the following six pieces of perspective, in hopes that it will allow you to move on quickly from the meltdown in Atlanta:

1. Brad Ziegler was bad, but not as bad as the decision to pitch him in the 9th in the first place.

Manager Don Mattingly did what many of today’s managers do. He used his closer in a non-save situation. In all my years of watching baseball in-game culture evolve, this is about the biggest “kiss of death” to a ball club. I know, I know, he has to keep the 38-year old sinkerball specialist active, so that he doesn’t get too stale. But Ziegler had already thrown Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday this week for the Miami Marlins. He’s only faced 83 batters all season, so he doesn’t pitch a lot anyway. And everyone (except MLB managers) knows that closers in a non-save situation is a kiss of death.

By the way, according to Baseball Reference, Ziegler’s stats in save and non-save situations in 2018 break down like this:

SAVE SITUATIONS:  7 2/3 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 1.25 ERA, W-L record 0-0

NON-SAVE SITUATIONS: 12 1/3 IP, 21 H, 3 BB, 15 ER, 11.16 ERA, W-L record 0-3

BOTTOM LINE: Ziegler has not blown a save this season, but he has blown up consistently when entering a game in a non-save situation.  I suspect many other closers’ numbers look similar.

2. Tayron Guerrero was obviously flustered…but can you blame him?

Tayron is a brand-new Major Leaguer, and unlike guys like Nick Wittgren and Drew Steckenrider, he has not built up enough innings to be ready for a situation like this. In fact, when those two relief pitchers were put in high-pressure situations as rookies last season, they often had similar results. Tayron was a logical choice to start the ninth inning with a five-run lead, with Ziegler available just in case. But I wonder if Ziegler is being treated too carefully, given his age and payroll obligation. After all, we have heard that the team tries to keep him on a very strict, consistent regimen. They only expect him to pitch in the ninth inning, so he can go about a repeatable routine every time. Today, that forced his entry into a game that looked like it might be closer as the late innings approached.

4. The DFA of Tazawa was a good step, but it is too early for the next steps

Ziegler was awful today. He has been before and he will be again. But as I wrote recently, he is part of a squad of high-contract players on this Marlins team that must be dealt with…until they can be dealt, or their contracts run out. Wei-Yin Chen, who had a nice effort in 5 1/3 innings today, but is still best-viewed as a guy who might attract a high-payroll team to make a deal at the trade deadline this year. The Fish are still on the hook for two more years. They’re paying Chen at a salary cost akin to a top tier starter. Dan Straily‘s pretty good too.

Ziegler is also being “showcased” and assuming Martin Prado comes around with the bat, he will be in that same group of players the team would like to move on from. In Prado’s case, it is simply due to cost and age. He has been a stellar player when healthy, and a terrific role model and leader always.

And for what its worth, Tazawa would have likely been placed in the spot Tayron was today if he had still been on the roster. Because they were trying to showcase him, too.

5. The Braves are legit better than the Miami Marlins

The NL East looks like a tough neighborhood for the next few seasons. The Nationals are strong, the Mets are competitive, the Phillies are improving and the Braves look to be ahead of schedule.  Today is not the last time they will do this to a team this season.

6. Baseball is 162 games…thank heaven for that!

46 games down, “only” 116 to go. This would be even tougher if it were the NFL. But its baseball, and it is a season in which we look for signs of progress more than counting wins. That will be less of the case later in the season once this group of younger players take on bigger roles. There will be more expected of them as they prepare to make a bigger leap in 2019. As I wrote recently, this season is about getting past some bad and unfortunate contracts, the lingering on-field impact of Jose Fernandez‘ passing, and trying out a bunch of players that can compete to be members of a playoff-caliber team a bit down the road.

Some fans are quick to say the Marlins are “tanking” this season. I don’t think that’s the case at all. I think they are willing to risk having a few games slip away in order to showcase some of the players that are jamming up the payroll right now.

Today’s agony was a short-term setback for a team that may be on the way toward real improvement. It just didn’t work out today.

Next: Straily Sets Down Braves

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