Miami Marlins: Grading the Fish in Atlanta

The Miami Marlins took just one of three games in Atlanta over the weekend. A nice Dan Straily shutout opened things up nicely for the Marlins on Friday.

After that, an 8-1 blowout loss on Saturday and a ninth-inning meltdown for the ages on Sunday. Is there anything positive that we can take from this series? My sources say that yes, there is some good we can take with the bad.

The Skinny

For this series of articles, I use the Wins Probability Added metric (WPA) to help ascertain which players performed better (or worse) in the higher leverage situations. In other words, if the Miami Marlins are winning, 6-0, a plate appearance doesn’t count as much. Conversely, an at bat with two on and two out in the bottom of the 13th has a very high leverage.

There’s something else you need to understand about WPA. Every game has a collective WPA of zero. The winning team will finish with a total of .50, and the losing team will have -.50. It doesn’t matter if the two teams combine for 50 runs or it finishes at 1-0, the WPA will still add up to zero. Also of interest, if two clubs split a two game series, each team’s individual WAR will also be a collective zero. At the end of a 162 season, in fact, an 81-81 club will have a mark of, you guessed it, zero.

WPA is not a great predictor of future performance. What it can tell you is which players performed best when the chips were down. As such, it’s a great metric for telling the story of one ballgame, or in this setting, one series. In these games, blowouts both, an early inning plate appearance, when the game was close, is worth much more than a plate appearance near the end. We’re going to take a closer look at Miami’s 20 participants in their series versus the Braves.

Dan Straily +.389

Dan Straily probably didn’t know that he would have the best game of his Miami Marlins career on Friday. His 76 GameScore was the best he’s put up since joining the team. He did have higher GameScores in his career on three occasions, all in 2013.

For the series opener on Friday night, Straily’s fourth start of the season, he put 61-of-98 pitches into the strike zone. He racked up six strikeouts and allowed three hits and three walks, getting through seven innings in total. This includes 1-2-3 innings in the third, the fifth, the sixth, and the seventh.

To be fair, it wasn’t all puppies and rainbows for Straily. The fourth inning was particularly dicey. He allowed a leadoff walk to Freddie Freeman and a double to Nick Markakis to open things up. He then got Tyler Flowers out on a pop fly and intentionally walked Ender Inciarte.

Straily got out of the jam by striking out Jose Bautista and getting Johan Camargo to fly out to deep center field. The outing lowered Straily’s ERA from 5.54 to 3.60 for this season, and his WHIP from 1.769 to 1.450. We will see him next on Wednesday night at Citi Field as he takes on the New York Mets.

Grade: A+

J.T. Realmuto +.159

Miami Marlins manager Don Mattingly put J.T. Realmuto batting second in the order in the series opener on Friday. Realmuto started things out by drawing a one-out base on balls (+.024), sandwiched between three Matt Wisler strikeouts. He led off the fourth inning by grounding out harmlessly back to the pitcher (-.028). His big blow came in the sixth (see below). With Prado on first, Realmuto tripled to center field (+.214), easily scoring Prado. It was Realmuto’s first triple of the season. He scored a moment later on Starlin Castro’s double. Realmuto ended the eighth by grounding into a double play (-.030).

After taking Saturday off, Realmuto again batted second on Sunday. He flew out for the second out of the game in the first inning (-.016). He then grounded out to end the third (-.012). The bases were empty, however, so it really didn’t count that much against him. He was the ninth batter to the plate in the fourth inning. With Prado at first, Realmuto grounded out to move him to second (-.003). He then drew a two-out walk with the bases empty in the sixth (+.001). With one out in the eighth and a four-run lead, Realmuto hit a ground rule double (+.007), but was eventually stranded.

Grade: B+

Justin Bour +.157

Justin Bour started game one of the series in his familiar cleanup spot. He struck out to end the first inning with a runner on first (-.022). In the fourth, with two outs and the bases empty, he singled into right field (+.015), but was stranded there on Brian Anderson’s force play to end the frame. He then fouled out with a runner on second for the second out of the sixth inning (-.027). With nobody out and a runner on first in the ninth, he fouled out again (-.011).

Bour was moved down to fifth in the order on Saturday night, and drew a walk to lead off the second (+.037). He would score on Bryan Holaday’s groundout a bit later. With a man on first and nobody out in the fourth, he drew another walk (+.053). In the sixth inning, Bour flew out with one out and a man on first (-.030). He singled to left with one out in the ninth (+.001), but it was really a bit of a last gasp, as the Marlins expired by an 8-1 final moments later.

On Sunday, Bour drew a two out walk in the first, batting third (+.012). In the fourth inning, Bour hit a triple to left field (+.111). It was his first triple of the season and just the second of his five-season big league career. He scored a moment later on Julio Teheran’s balk (+.012). Later in the inning, with two outs and a runner on second, Bour was intentionally walked (+.001). He drew a two out walk in the sixth with J.T. Realmuto on first base (+.002). That was already a career high in walks for Bour, but the Braves intentionally walked him again in the eighth, with a runner on second and one out (+.002).

Grade: A-

Kyle Barraclough +.120

Kyle Barraclough relieved Dan Straily in the opener on Friday, coming in to pitch the eighth. He induced three consecutive infield groundouts. Preston Tucker (+.044), Ozzie Albies (+.029), and Ronald Acuna (+.017) each got exactly nada from the one they call “Bear Claw.”

The Marlins didn’t call on Barraclough in Saturday’s game. On Sunday, he was called on to protect a four-run, eighth-inning lead. Again, it came off without a hitch. He got Tyler Flowers to fly out (+.016) to lead off. After that, he got groundouts out of Tucker (+.009) and Johan Camargo (+.004).

Barraclough is quietly dominating this season. He’s only allowed eight hits in 21 2/3 innings so far this season. That’s good for an opposing batting average of just .110 and a WHIP of 0.92. He’s also struck out 26 and walked 12. Not a great BB/9 rate, but very slightly lower than his career best 5.2 mark from last season.

Grade: A+

Nick Wittgren +.076

Nick Wittgren got the least playing time of the 20 players to appear in the series versus the Braves. He entered in the sixth inning of the series finale on Sunday afternoon, with one out and runners on second and third. Wei-Yin Chen had already allowed two runs, and was on the hook for two more. Wittgren still had a four-run lead.

Nick got Tyler Flowers out swinging at strike three (+.042). Ender Inciarte was also retired without incident, with a flyout to left field (+.034).

Wittgren truly put out a “fire,” in the tradition of the “firemen” of old. Of course now, five innings is the new seven.

With a base salary of just $545K, Wittgren has 17 K’s in 13 2/3 innings, good for a 1.024 WHIP. He has allowed only one earned run all season since his callup, and is one of four players I would consider a better closer option than currently entrenched Brad Ziegler.

Grade: A+

Wei-Yin Chen +.059

Wei-Yin Chen started the series finale, and looked a lot better than he had in his previous four starts. It’s hard to fathom, but Chen has only won eight games for the Miami Marlins, three seasons into his six-year, $96MM contract. He’s earned approximately $31MM of it, or a yield of $3,875,000 per win. But I digress.

Chen worked a 1-2-3 first inning, striking out Ozzie Albies (+.022) and Freddie Freeman (+.011). He allowed a walk in the second, to Tyler Flowers (-.026), but that was sandwiched between a groundout, a flyout, and a fielders’ choice. He struck out Dansby Swanson (+.025) in a 1-2-3 third inning.

With a 6-0 lead, Chen struck out Ronald Acuna (+.010) to open the fourth. After a Freeman single (-.011), he got Nick Markakis and Flowers to flyout. He opened the fifth with a K as well, to Ender Inciarte (+.009) as part of another 1-2-3 frame.

Chen ran into a spot of trouble in the sixth. He got Charlie Culberson to fly out (+.008), then allowed four straight singles to Albies (-.009), Acuna (-.015), Freeman (-.034), and Markakis (-.054). Nick Wittgren was then called to bail him out.

Chen also grounded out to open the third (-.025), struck out in the fourth (-.004), and struck out again to lead off the sixth (-.002).

Grade: B+

Brad Ziegler +.056

Brad Ziegler allows at least one hard hit ball in each of his appearances, it seems. In the series opener, he came into the ninth to nail down a 2-0 Miami Marlins win. He got Freddie Freeman on a groundout (+.048) to start things out, then gave Nick Markakis a single to center field (-.062). Tyler Flowers ended the drama by grounding into a double play to end the game (+.108).

Ziegler wasn’t called on in Miami’s seven-run loss on Saturday, but he played on Sunday! Yes he did! But don’t blame him alone for Miami’s meltdown.

Ziegler came in to protect a five-run lead in the ninth inning, and started things out well by getting Dansby Swanson out swinging (+.005). He then walked Ryan Flaherty (-.005), allowed Ozzie Albies to single (-.012), and let Ronald Acuna bring one home on a sacrifice fly (-.015). Freddie Freeman then singled (-.010) and Ziegler didn’t cover first, leading to an error and another run scored. Markakis added an RBI-single (-.029) before Ziegler was removed.

To recap, our closer has a 7.20 ERA, over a quarter of the way through the season. Opposing batters are hitting an all-star caliber .321 against him, and he has a 1.50 WHIP. The ERA and OPP BA are the worst marks on Miami’s active roster. Yeah. That’s the guy you want protecting the lead.

Grade: D

Brian Anderson +.040

Brian Anderson was slotted fifth in the lineup to open the series on Friday, and singled to left to open the second inning (+.037). He forced out Justin Bour to end the fourth (-.028), and flew out to left with a runner in scoring position to end the sixth (-.027). He grounded into a double play to end Miami’s half of the ninth (-.019).

In game two, Anderson batted in the cleanup position, and struck out with a runner on first to end the opening inning (-.022). He led off the fourth with a single (+.036), and singled with one out in the sixth (+.027). Down by seven runs, he grounded out to start Miami’s ninth (-.001).

On Sunday, batting fifth again, Anderson led off the second with a strikeout (-.024). With a 1-0 lead in the fourth, nobody out and a runner on second, he singled into center field (+.063). He later scored on a Miguel Rojas single. Anderson led off the fifth with a flyout (-.003). He then led off the seventh inning with a single (+.008). Unfortunately, knowing how things ultimately worked out, he ended the eighth with two runners on base, flying out to center field (-.007).

Grade: B+

Miguel Rojas +.030

Miguel Rojas batted seventh in the lineup on Friday, and grounded into a double play to end the second inning (-.054) in his first plate appearance of the series. He drew a one-out walk in the fifth (+.033), but was gunned down trying to steal second (-.055). He grounded out in the middle of a 1-2-3 seventh (-.012) in his last plate appearance of Miami’s 2-0 win.

On Saturday, Rojas batted second in the order. He hit a one-out single in the first inning (+.024), but was stranded by two strikeouts. He grounded out for the second out of the third (-.016), then he grounded out again to end the fifth (-.012). Rojas struck out for the second out of the eighth (-.004), with Miami trailing, 6-1.

Rojas was back in seventh in the order in the series finale on Sunday. He was hit by a pitch with two outs in the second inning (+.013), getting to first with whatever it takes. With nobody out and the bases loaded in the fourth, he delivered an RBI-single (+.069) to give Miami a 2-0 lead. He then scored on Lewis Brinson’s grand slam. With one out and one on in the fifth, he was again struck by a pitch (+.005). Later, with a runner on third and one out in the seventh, Rojas hit his sixth home run of the season (+.027). With one out in the ninth, he did it again. It was the first multi-home run game of his career.

Rojas came into this season with four career home runs, one for each of his four major league seasons. We knew he would be a regular contributor, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted this mid-career power surge. With seven this season already, he is projecting 25 round trippers.

Grade: B+

Starlin Castro -.002

Starlin Castro batted third on Friday, and struck out for the second out of the first inning with J.T. Realmuto standing on first (-.028). He flew out for the second out of the fourth (-.020). With Realmuto on third and one out in the sixth, Castro hit an RBI-double (+.077). Starlin added a single to left to lead off the ninth inning (+.011).

On Saturday, Castro again batted in the third spot in the lineup. He struck out with a runner at first for the second out of the opening frame (-.028). Then, he grounded out to end the third (-.011). He flew out to start the sixth (-.024), and grounded out to end the eighth (-.002).

Castro batted cleanup in the finale. He had batted third in every start but two this year, also batting cleanup on May 13th. He flew out with a runner on first to end the first inning (-.022). Castro doubled to left field with the bases empty in the fourth (+.062), scoring a little later on Miguel Rojas’ single. Later in the inning, he flew out with two runners on base to end the six-run-frame (-.008). Castro forced out Realmuto to end the sixth (-.005). He struck out with two runners on for the second out of the eighth inning (-.007).

Grade: B-

JB Shuck -.010

JB Shuck didn’t appear in the opener on Friday. On Saturday, he pinch-hit for Jose Urena with two outs in the seventh, and grounded out to first base (-.008).

Shuck lined out to end the seventh on Sunday, pinch hitting for Nick Wittgren (-.001). He stayed in, and struck out for the second out of the ninth (-.001).

Grade: C-

Drew Steckenrider -.016

Drew Steckenrider didn’t pitch on Friday or on Saturday. He’s been a little shaky in his last few appearances, so maybe Don Mattingly was giving him a little extra time.

Steckenrider came into Sunday’s game with an 8-2 lead to protect in the seventh inning. He walked Johan Camargo (-.012), then got Dansby Swanson to fly out (+.011). Charlie Culberson then singled to left (-.012), and Ozzie Albies drew a walk (-.025) to load the bases. Ronald Acuna followed with a two-RBI-single (-.051).

Steckenrider seemed to compose himself after that, and got Freddie Freeman to fly out (+.041). He ended the inning by inducing a groundout from Nick Markakis (+.031).

Grade: D+

Jarlin Garcia -.045

Jarlin Garcia was removed from the rotation after a pair of substandard starts. Moved to the bullpen, he appeared on Saturday for the second time since his last start.

Garcia came into the game trailing 4-1. In the seventh, relieving for Jose Urena, he allowed a home run to Kurt Suzuki (-.029) to start things out. He then allowed an Ender Inciarte single (-.004) and a Johan Camargo double (-.015) before recording an out. He recovered to get a Dansby Swanson fly out (+.003), and groundouts from Charlie Culberson (+.002) and Ozzie Albies (+.003).

In the eighth inning, Garcia allowed Ronald Acuna a base on balls to start things out (-.001), then surrendered a two-run shot to Freddie Freeman (-.003). He got Nick Markakis to fly out to left (+.000), walked Suzuki (-.000), and got Inciarte to ground into a double play (+.000).

Grade: D

Derek Dietrich -.057

Derek Dietrich batted sixth in the first game of the series on Friday. He lined out with a runner on first for the first out of the second inning (-.035). He flew out to lead off the fifth (-.030), and struck out to lead off the seventh (-.016).

After taking Saturday off, Dietrich batted sixth again on Sunday. He struck out for the second out of the second (-.017). With runners on the corners and nobody out in the fourth, he drew a walk (+.032). Of course, he scored on Lewis Brinson’s grand slam. Dietrich singled to left with one out in the fifth (+.003), and later reached base on a fielders choice with nobody out in the seventh (+.005). The play was a positive impact because he advanced to third base on an Ozzie Albies error. He scored on Rojas’ first homer of the game.

Grade: C

Bryan Holaday -.061

Bryan Holaday caught the Saturday game, and batted eighth in place of J.T. Realmuto in the lineup. In his first plate appearance of the night, he grounded out with two runners in scoring position for an RBI (-.001). Holaday flew out with two runners on to end the fourth (-.044). He flew out to right for the second out of the seventh (-.015).

Grade: C

Martin Prado -.095

For some reason, Miami Marlins manager Don Mattingly has decided to let 34-year-old Martin Prado bat leadoff. Prado did bat leadoff in every Marlins game throughout the Braves series.

Prado struck out to open Friday’s game (-.022). He flew out to left field to end the third (-.012). He singled into right field with one out in the sixth (+.037), and scored on J.T. Realmuto’s triple. Prado later drew a one-out walk in the eighth (+.014).

On Saturday, Prado grounded out to lead the game off (-.022). He flew out to open the third inning (-.022). With one out in the fifth, he flew out again (-.017). In the eighth, he led off the inning by flying out (-.007).

On Sunday, Prado grounded out to lead the game off (-.022). He struck out for the second out of the third (-.018). His next time up, the Marlins had scored six runs. Prado singled to the pitcher (+.004). He then grounded out  for the second out of the sixth (-.002), flew out to lead off the eighth (-.004), and grounded out with a runner on base to end the ninth (-.001). So in total, Prado was two-for-13 with a walk through the series.

Grade: D

Lewis Brinson -.107

Lewis Brinson batted eighth in Friday’s game, and led off the third with a fly out to center (-.025). He grounded out to end the fifth (-.015), then flew out to end the seventh (-.008).

In Saturday night’s contest, Brinson batted seventh, moving up one for the presumably worse Bryan Holaday. Brinson grounded out with two runners in scoring position and nobody out in the second (-.054). He failed to move anyone up. With two on and one out in the fourth, he flew out (-.044). He led off the seventh inning with a ground out (-.024), and ended the game with another groundout (-.000).

In the finale, Brinson batted eighth, and ended the second inning with a fly out (-.024). He then hit a grand slam in the fourth inning and nobody out (+.101). It’s a measure of how dreadful Brinson has been otherwise that his collective WPA isn’t even touched by the four-run-homer. Brinson ended the fifth with two runners on base by grounding into a double play (-.012). He flew out for the second out of the seventh (-.001), then singled with one out in the ninth (+.001).

Grade: D+

Jose Urena -.255

Jose Urena hasn’t really pitched that badly this season. It’s staggering that he was 14-7 last season, and has already matched his loss total this season without earning a single victory. The proof is in the pudding, however. Urena has suffered through very minimal run support. In 10 starts, the Miami Marlins have only scored 23 runs. The 2.3 runs per start marking a major league low.

Urena started the second game, on Saturday. He made it through six innings and only allowed five hits and a walk. Unfortunately, also tucked in there were four earned runs. Urena struck out two.

Grade: B-

Tayron Guerrero -.954

Tayron Guerrero didn’t really play that much. He didn’t enter the series until there were two outs in the bottom of the ninth of the final game. In all honesty, he shouldn’t have been placed in the situation.

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Miami Marlins manager Don Mattingly called on closer Brad Ziegler with a five-run lead. That’s a NON-SAVE SITUATION. Do not put closers into games that are NON-SAVE SITUATIONS. Guerrero should have come in, with Ziegler on standby in case of trouble. For some reason, Donnie Baseball played it backwards. Rob wrote a lot more about it, here.

Anyway, Guerrero came into the game with a 9-7 lead and two outs, with a runner on first. Nick Markakis stole second base (+.002). Tyler Flowers drew a walk (-.044). Kurt Suzuki hit an RBI-single to left (-.081) to close the lead to one. After a Guerrero wild pitch (-.072), Johan Camargo walked to load the bases (-.029). Dansby Swanson then hit a walkoff, two-RBI-single (-.725). That’s all she wrote. Meltdown. Anyway.

Grade: F

Next: Meltdown in Atlanta

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