Miami Marlins Trade Rumors: Four Possible Destinations for Starlin Castro

With the rebuild well underway, it’s coming to the time of year where the Miami Marlins will be looking to shop some of their most expensive players.

Where could Starlin Castro end up? What will the Miami Marlins be able to gain? The Miami Marlins are not going to challenge for the postseason this year. It’s not a shocking statement to anyone. Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter bought the Marlins (and the farm) and sold off a lot of Miami’s most expensive assets.

It didn’t take long to find trade partners for Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich. Come this trade deadline, we could see the Miami Marlins possibly part ways with Castro, Justin Bour, J.T. Realmuto, Dan Straily, and others.

When weighed against his historical performance, Castro is having a season that could best be classified as “average.” When measured against his career numbers, Castro is currently hitting three points below his career level, while his OBP is eight points higher. Historically a “below-average” fielder at shortstop, his advanced fielding metrics show an above average defender as a second baseman. According to baseball-reference, Castro was 41 runs below average in five-and-a-half defensive seasons at shortstop. In the three seasons since making the switch to second base, Castro has been five runs better than average.

Let’s not forget that Castro is a middle-infielder with 102 career home runs. Do you know anybody who’d find that a useful tool at #2 or #6 in their order?

So who’s a good fit for Castro? I looked at all 29 major league teams outside of Miami. Then, I narrowed down my search by dismissing teams that looked solid at second base and shortstop. I then took out teams that are completely out of contention and unlikely to try a short-term upgrade. I was left with four distinct possibilities.

Los Angeles Angels

The Situation

The Los Angeles Angels are set at shortstop with Andrelton Simmons. The 28-year-old is slashing .330/.399/.460 in 59 games. Currently on the 10-day disabled list, it doesn’t look like he’s going to miss significant time with a sprained right ankle.

Second base is another story entirely. The club is 38-32 as I write this, seven-and-a-half games out of first in the AL West, but right in the thick of the wildcard picture. 35-year-old Ian Kinsler has 56 games logged and Zack Cozart at age 32 has played in 58. Obviously, not all games were logged at second base.

Kinsler is patient at the plate, walking 21 times and striking out the same, with sporadic speed and power. He has nine home runs and seven stolen bases, and he’s still well above average defensively. Despite this, it’s apparent that he’s well into his inevitable age-driven decline. Kinsler is slashing .221/.289/.396. That’s 50 points lower than his career marks at every category.

Cozart is slashing .219/.296/.362, with five homers and 18 RBI. No stolen bases. Graded at well above average defensively at shortstop, he’s just about average at second.

The Solution

Castro would provide a significant upgrade to a possible contender. What could the Angels offer in return?

Six of the Angels top 12 prospects are pitchers, and five of them are right-handers. Jaime Barria has already had an impact at the major league level, with a 5-2 start to his career, a 2.61 ERA, and a 1.113 WHIP. What about the other four?

The Return

Chris Rodriguez

Chris Rodriguez has a 60 grade fastball, and three other pitches at 50 or higher. In fact, Rodriguez doesn’t have a grade below 50, which is considered above average. He’s 5-3 with a 5.40 ERA in low-level minor league ball, with 19 starts and 73 K’s in 68 1/3 innings. A Miami native, the 19-year-old 2016 fourth-round selection could be a good fit in the Marlins 2023 rotation.

Griffin Canning

Griffin Canning is a 22-year-old product of UCLA, and the Angels second round pick from last year. He’s started 12 times in his professional career, mostly with the double-A Mobile BayBears. His 0.975 career WHIP hints at upper level success, although his 1-0 record doesn’t speak very well to his stamina. Still, there’s time. Canning is unlikely to be included in any trade package, but we should hope the Miami Marlins at least ask.

Jesus Castillo

Jesus Castillo is a 22-year-old out of the Diamondbacks international complex in the Dominican Republic. He also spent a little time in the Cubs system before winding up with the Angels double-A club in Mobile this season. At all levels of play over seven minor league seasons, he’s 22-23 with a 3.86 ERA in 354 2/3 innings, and a 1.345 WHIP. The glaring statistic is his 2.70 K/BB rate, with only 110 free passes issued against 300 strikeouts.

Jose Soriano

Jose Soriano has an even better fastball than Rodriguez, grading out at 65. Only 19-years-old, his fastball sits at 93 and touches 97 on the gun. With a few more years, he will likely add speed as he fills out his 6’3″, 168 lb. frame. He’s 5-8 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.195 WHIP over his first three pro seasons, now in the single-A Midwest League.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Situation

Chris Taylor and Corey Seager have the Dodgers shortstop position completely covered. Taylor is slashing .249/.338/.444 in 67 contests, with 29 extra base hits and 27 RBI. He’s also struck out 75 times, but nobody’s perfect. In less of a sample, Seager is slashing .267/.348/.396 in 26 games. The Dodgers are unlikely to seek an upgrade.

Second base is more of a question mark. Enrique Hernandez is the starter there, and only slashing .217/.301/.434 in 61 games. He’s got some pop to his bat, with nine home runs, and his .226 BABip suggests that he’s about to luck into some hits, but Castro still marks a significant upgrade.

Hernandez, a former player with the Miami Marlins, has been with the Dodgers for four seasons now. Los Angeles uses him the same way the Marlins use Derek Dietrich. Everywhere but pitcher and catcher. Hernandez is three fielding runs below average in a 60 game sample size at second base.

39-year-old Chase Utley is the Dodgers other option at second. He’s slashing .216/.302/.324 in a 45 game sample size, with one home run. Utley is clearly on the downward slope of his impressive 16-season career, and can best impact the Dodgers as a situational starter / pinch-hitter.

The Solution

Castro is unquestionably a better option at second base for the Dodgers than Hernandez or Utley. The Dodgers are currently sitting in second in the NL West, at 36-32 and 2.5 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Return

Keibert Ruiz

With the Miami Marlins likely also shipping out current starter Realmuto, it may behoove them to check out 19-year-old Keibert Ruiz. He’s the Dodgers’ second ranked prospect and the second best catching prospect in baseball. He’s an advanced defensive catcher out of Venezuela with a 55 hit tool. He also grades out at 55 overall, with all tools average or better.

Mitchell White

Mitchell White is a 23-year-old, 6’4″ right-handed starter and L.A.’s third-overall prospect. In 33 starts, he’s 4-5 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.095 WHIP. He has 146 strikeouts in 122 1/3 innings. The Dodgers are unlikely to want to part with him, seeing as how he’s so close to the majors, so the Miami Marlins would have to include other pieces if they want White.

Dustin May

Dustin May is a 20-year-old, 6’6″ right-hander currently with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes in the high-A California League. In three seasons of professional ball, he’s 11-10 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.220 WHIP, and 207 K’s in 209 innings.

Gavin Lux

Gavin Lux is a 20-year-old middle infielder, currently with May on the Quakes. He’s fast and has a great arm, both graded at 55. Lux has an overall grade of 45, which is slightly above average. In 225 games at three levels of minor league ball, he’s slashing .275/.359/.411 with 15 homers and 95 RBI. He’s also stolen 36 bases.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Situation

The Arizona Diamondbacks lead the NL West with a 39-30 record, 2.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ketel Marte holds down second base, slashing .249/.304/.409 in 66 games.

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Nick Ahmed, at shortstop, is not doing quite as well. Slashing just .218/.280/.407 in 64 games, Ahmed has nine home runs and 31 RBI, and has drawn 19 walks versus 50 strikeouts. These figures are right in line with his career numbers, and are unlikely to improve by much. With the 28-year-old Ahmed, you’re getting what you’re seeing.

Defensively for Ahmed, the picture is a lot better. He’s a slightly above average fielder at shortstop. He’s 39 fielding runs better-than-average over 344 appearances through his major league career. That’s a little better than Castro, so the D-Backs would be giving up some defense for a lot more pop on the other side of the game.

Solution

Again, Castro is slightly below average fielding at shortstop, but he’s a lot better with the stick. He also gives Arizona some flexibility, as he’s more than capable at taking some starts at second if needed. Ahmed is better suited as a situational starter anyway.

The Return

Jasrado Chisholm

Jasrado Chisholm, also a shortstop (but four seasons away from impacting a major league team) is a 20-year-old Bahamian lefty-hitter. In three seasons between the Missoula Osprey and the Kane County Cougars, he has slashed .262/.323/.437 with 19 home runs and 75 RBI. Very raw defensively, he has 49 errors in 140 games at the position.

Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho is a 5’10” catcher from Chili, WI. The Diamondbacks drafted him in the second round in 2017. Varsho is fast for a catcher, with 60 grade speed, and has 22 stolen bases in 107 professional games. He’s slashing .300/.373/.499 over two levels of minor league “A” ball. The lingering question to his game is arm strength, tied into footwork behind the plate. Varsho is athletic enough, however, to transition his game to the outfield if needed.

Gabriel Maciel

Gabriel Maciel was signed as a 16-year-old free agent out of Brazil by Arizona in 2015. Now 19, Maciel’s key attribute is his plus-speed, graded out at 65. He has slashed .290/.353/.357 in 150 games over the last three seasons, with 36 stolen bases in 150 contests.

Jhoan Duran

Jhoan Duran is a 6’5″, 175 lb. right-hander out of the Dominican Republic. He’s already in the mid-90’s with his fastball, but he could come up a lot as his frame fills out, preferably in the 210+ range. He initially signed in 2014, and has a #3 starter ceiling. In four seasons he’s 14-11 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.317 WHIP, and 162 whiffs in 199 2/3 innings.

Next: Jose Urena is better than you think

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