Does that headline make me crazy? That’s up to you to decide.
But I will tell you this: for all of the negative energy that has rained down on the Miami Marlins since the start of Spring Training, there are some numbers that just don’t lie. With half of the current campaign remaining, in a season in which the team’s record really is irrelevant, they might just rival the 77 wins posted by last year’s squad.
Do I think they will get there? No. But will finishing 2018 in the vicinity of last season’s power-packed but pitching-challenged roster is possible. Could that make Miami Marlins fans realize that there might be a bright future for an organization under new management? I certainly hope so. If not, you are missing out on a quiet but hopeful story.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE MIAMI MARLINS RECORD
Here is what I mean by the numbers. We all know that the start of the 2018 season was, as expected, a rough go. The Marlins stumbled out of the gate to a 5-17 record. But for the rest of the first half of the season, the Fish posted a 27-32 mark. That’s a winning percentage of .458. Over a full 162-game season, that translates to 74 wins and 88 losses. That’s just 3 games short of the 2017 Marlins team that fans seem to be missing so much. I certainly mean no disrespect to the players from that team, but they were a lopsided team. All hit, no pitch.
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Now, the new management has not shown its trade deadline cards yet. They could use the next month to peel off any reasonable chance of the team winning much more than the 64 games they project to if you simply duplicate their first half performance. But with fingers crossed, if J.T. Realmuto, Derek Dietrich and Starlin Castro finish the season in Miami, this team is showing that it’s capable of winning perhaps 41-42 games in the second half. That would get them to 73-74 wins. With all of their Midwest and West Coast travel finished for the year, they could ride their puddle-jumping schedule to a record that would not impress at first glance. In the long run, it would show that the process of turning this club into a sustained winner is underway.
THE BIG RISK TO MY OPTIMISM
Frankly, I’d be surprised if Castro was not traded, since the team has other options at his position. He carries a hefty contract, and he might net a good prospect in return. As for a Realmuto, if he is traded I may have to rethink my optimism, short and long term. That is, barring a gigantic return in a deadline deal.
Regardless, my point is that the team has stabilized over the past few months. They’ve played close to .500 ball and beaten the teams surrounding them at the bottom of the standings. Those are three things Miami Marlins fans could not say last season.
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