Miami Marlins and the J.T. Realmuto Trade Conundrum

What’s a rebuilding franchise to do?

The latest (and hopefully last) Miami Marlins selloff is now mostly a thing of the past. Over the next few weeks, we’re going to hear all kinds of rumors concerning the possible departure of Miami’s key players. Derek Dietrich, Kyle Barraclough, Miguel Rojas, Drew Steckenrider, Starlin Castro, Adam Conley, Justin Bour, Brad Ziegler and others will be mentioned frequently as possible key pieces to a team in “win-now” mode. And for that, we in Marlin Maniac Land will possibly see ever-more prospects. This contributes to our current “win-tomorrow” mindset. I’m sorry. I won’t speak for you. Let me rephrase. This contributes to the Miami Marlins mindset of mortgaging the present for possible future gains.

J.T. Realmuto presents a real issue to the Miami Marlins. He’s clearly the best catcher in the National League, and very likely all of baseball. He’s also the only Miami Marlins representative at the 2018 All Star Game, and the clear leader of the Marlins. Don’t listen to the San Francisco Giants fans, they’re clinging to the past success of Buster Posey. Right now, Realmuto is the real deal.

To Trade or Not to Trade

Realmuto is a centerpiece catcher, and the Miami Marlins aren’t good enough to challenge for a postseason spot this year. There are those that say his trade value will never be higher, and that may be true. On the other hand, I think he’s just now reaching his peak production years, and heck, the Marlins have absolute control over his rights until the end of the 2020 season. Is it that much of a stretch to expect this team to contend that soon? Or possibly even next year?

Trading Realmuto for prospects is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Unless the Marlins are just blown away by an offer, they should walk away from the table. What is Realmuto worth? I’d say a #1 starting pitcher and two top prospects. They had extensive talks with the Washington Nationals earlier this year, but reportedly, the Marlins insisted on Juan Soto as a centerpiece in the deal. I understand the Nats reticence to part with the young left fielder, but I think that Sherman and Company were right to decline. It’s a “name-your-price” market for the Fish, especially where it comes to J.T.

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Is Keeping Realmuto in the Best Interest of the Miami Marlins?

The Miami Marlins aren’t good enough to win right now. That’s no surprise. Preseason predictions had the Marlins winning anywhere from 60 to 70 games, with most settling at around 64-98. The Marlins are currently sitting at 41-57 going into the all-star break. That win percentage has them on pace for a 68-94 record. Just four wins better than expected. However, they’ve also gone 18-15 over their last 33. If they can duplicate that success rate, they’ll finish somewhere around 76-86. Not so bad, right?

Next: Some Takeaways from the First Half

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