Five Things the Miami Marlins Need to Learn Before the End of the Season

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PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 2: Brian Anderson #15 of the Miami Marlins makes a diving catch on a shallow fly ball to right field in the seventh inning during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on August 2, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies won 5-2. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images) /

With 41 games to go in the regular season, the Miami Marlins sit tied for last in the National League, at 48-73 with the San Diego Padres.

That .397 winning percentage is tied for the fourth lowest in all of baseball, behind the Baltimore Orioles (.294), the Kansas City Royals (.305), and the Chicago White Sox (.356). While the Miami Marlins are bad, at least they’re not “historically” bad.

That’s not to say the Marlins should stand put or that they’re in any way ok. A lot of things need to happen for Miami to field a competitive ball club in 2019.

The Marlins kicked off the campaign by losing 17 of their first 22 contests. After winning in 41 of their next 85, they were pushing very close to respectability. Since fielding a 46-61 record, they have won just two-of-12.

Three-quarters of the way into this season, and the Miami Marlins are right on pace to win exactly 62 games. It’s worse in blowouts, games decided by five or more runs. The Marlins are 11-26 in such contests, versus a reasonably successful 16-14 record in one-run games.

What to Expect

Most were expecting the Marlins to lose 100. I think that a reasonable goal at this point is to aim for a 21-20 record the rest of the way. While that may or may not come to pass, the long-game is for the Marlins to be successful in 2019 and beyond. They’ve started to put the pieces into place already.

Cursed with a worst-in-baseball farm system when they bought the club, the Bruce Sherman group has relied on Gary Denbo and Mike Hill to rebuild it from the ground up. They’re already starting to see positive results.

Miami’s first three draft picks from just two months ago are already playing with the Greensboro Grasshoppers, Miami’s middle-A club. Connor Scott, Osiris Johnson, and Will Banfield are all performing well at the level. Miami’s third round pick, Tristan Pompey, is one level above them, with the high-A Jupiter Hammerheads.

Team management has also become heavily reliant on building the system through trades. Monte Harrison, Sandy Alcantara, Nick Neidert, Jorge Guzman, Isan Diaz, Jose Devers, Magneuris Sierra, Jordan Yamamoto, Zac Gallen, Robert Dugger, Brayan Hernandez, Bryson Brigman, Braxton Lee, and McKenzie Mills are all recent acquisitions that Miami received via trade. They make up nearly half of Miami’s Top 30 prospects, according to the MLB Pipeline.

How can the Marlins compete next season and further on? Here’s five things they’ll have to figure out to make it happen.

J.T. Realmuto

We have always expected a lot of J.T. Realmuto. After getting drafted in the third round back in 2010 at just 19-years-of-age, he reported directly to the GCL Marlins. He quickly worked his way up through the system, spending 2011 with the Grasshoppers, 2012 with the Hammerheads, and 2013 with the Jacksonville Suns. He split his time between the Miami Marlins and the Suns in 2014, going seven-for-29 in his first 11 games.

Since then, Realmuto has honed his approach at the plate. He put up a .259/.290/.406 slashline in his first full major league season, over 126 games with the Marlins in 2015. In 2016, he bumped that up to a .303/.345/.428 in 137 games. In 2017, although his slashline regressed slightly, to .278/.332/.451, he increased his power to smack 17 homers and collect 65 RBI.

Realmuto’s “barrel” percentage has increased over each of the last three seasons, from 4.1 in 2016 to 6.3 in 2017 to 8.4 this season. He’s delivering the ball off the bat at an average velocity of 89.6 MPH, a full MPH faster than his previous best. He’s also brought his launch angle from a career average of 9.5 percent up to 13.4 this year, which promises more home runs.

Realmuto has taken another step this season, it’s plain for even casual baseball fans to see. He earned his first all-star selection, and is slashing .296/.353/.511 with 15 round-trippers and 58 RBI. He should easily eclipse his previous career highs in those categories, set last season.

Defensively, Realmuto is near the top in the majors in “pop time.” That’s the time it takes from when the pitcher’s delivery hits his glove until it arrives in the mitt of the second baseman (or shortstop, or third baseman).

His 1.94 seconds ranks second in the majors, and he’s been a top three guy in that metric since Statcast started tracking it. He’s also the fastest catcher in the game today, ranking first overall in every season on the base paths. He’s at 28.8 feet per second, which ranks in the top fifth in all of baseball.

Realmuto is often mentioned as a possible trade for contenders looking for an upgrade, but the Miami Marlins should consider him indispensable. His skillset is just not available elsewhere from behind the plate.

Although he’s free agent eligible in 2021, He can file for arbitration this season. It’s been mentioned that the Miami Marlins management group is planning to offer him a long-term extension. I think somewhere in the neighborhood of five-years, $100 million will get the job done. The only question is, are the Marlins willing to go that high?

ATLANTA, GA – AUGUST 14: Pitcher Trevor Richards #63 of the Miami Marlins throws a pitch in the third inning against the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park on August 14, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images) /

Young Rotation

Most of the Miami Marlins rotation will be young guys in either their rookie or second seasons in the majors. The only three exceptions are Dan Straily, Jose Urena, and Wei-Yin Chen. Straily is still likely to be traded at some point before next season. Also, there’s no way that the Miami Marlins will get anyone to agree to a trade for Chen.

Chen is slated to make $42 million over the next two seasons before a possible vesting option kicks in. His results do not back up the paycheck. Urena isn’t going anywhere, and is at this point considered the staff anchor, if not exactly an “ace.”

Trevor Richards

Aside from those three, a wealth of young pitchers are expected to compete for a rotation spot. Trevor Richards looks like he’s found a home, with the highest ERA+ from amongst all Marlins pitchers with at least two starts. Richards has struck out 85 in 86 innings, and racked up a 1.372 WHIP in his first season.

Caleb Smith

Even after missing two months already, Smith still leads the Miami Marlins pitching staff with five wins. Whether we can attribute this to a staffwide spate of underachievement, the watering down of the “win” statistic, or a combination of both is your guess. Smith is currently on the 60-day disabled list, and may or may not be ready for the start of the 2019 campaign.

Pablo Lopez

Lopez clearly has “it.” Despite a 4.79 ERA and a 2-3 record over his first eight starts, Lopez leads the Miami Marlins pitching staff with a 1.170 WHIP (minimum 34 innings). Lopez looks to continue impacting the Marlins in a positive way by holding things down every fifth day.

Others

Some combination of Jarlin Garcia, Elieser Hernandez, Dillon Peters, Merandy Gonzalez, and Sandy Alcantara could also contribute starts. From below the major league level, help could come in the form of Zac Gallen, Jeff Brigham, Nick Neidert, Robert Dugger, and Jordan Yamamoto.

SAN DIEGO, CA – AUGUST 12: Justin Bour #33 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on before a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on August 12, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Replacing Power

Justin Bour was recently traded away to the Philadelphia Phillies for new Miami Marlins #30 prospect Mills. As the only legitimate power threat for Miami, it’s left a gaping hole in the Marlins offense.

Realmuto is now a legit 20-home run threat, although he could track higher in time. Both Brian Anderson and Derek Dietrich should hit a consistent 15-18 homers a year. Lewis Brinson, if he could fix that hole in his swing, is a threat for 25-30 round trippers yearly.

Outside of those four, there really isn’t a power threat under contract for the Miami Marlins at the major league level. Dig a little deeper though…

The Calvary is Coming

Aside from his all-world slashline of .346/.412/.514 in 108 games between the Baby Cakes and the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, Austin Dean has a career-high 12 homers this season. Still just 24-years-old, he could also end up contributing around 20 per season.

Peter O’Brien doesn’t hit for average as much as we’d like, but he has major league experience and has hit 24 homers in the minors this season, between the Tulsa Drillers, the Cakes and the Shrimp.

Isan Diaz is still just 22, and despite his diminutive stature (he’s 5’10”), he’s hit 12 homers this season. He projects as a possible 30-30 guy in the right circumstances, although he still strikes out too much. That’s a recurrent problem in Miami’s minor leagues.

Monte Harrison has struck out an amazing 183 times this year with the Jumbo Shrimp in 115 games. He’s also got 17 homers, a lot of them of the tape-measure variety. The hole in his swing is the biggest of all the prospects, but his ceiling is also the highest. If he can respond to coaching and somehow fix it, he could enjoy a long major league career.

Martin Prado

The Captain. No, not Derek Jeter, but third baseman Martin Prado.

Prado has spent four seasons with the Miami Marlins, and for the first two seasons slashed a composite .297/.349/.406 with 17 round-trippers and 138 RBI. He played in a total of 282 games for the 2015 and 2016 Marlins.

In 2017, Prado was haunted by his right leg. First with a recurrent hamstring problem which necessitated two separate trips to the disabled list, then later with a sprained right knee which took him completely out of the action soon after the all-star break. He played in a total of just 37 games.

This season, he’s been bothered by his left leg. A hamstring strain put him out of action for most of the first three months of the season. He managed to get his slashline up to .244/.288/.301 before straining his left quadricep on Monday. It’s unclear whether Prado will add to the 53 games in which he’s appeared this season.

Prado will turn 35 soon after the season ends, and is under contract next season for $15 million. A tremendously respected veteran, the Miami Marlins need to retain his services as part of the major league coaching staff, and eventual manager.

In the meantime, they would be best served by keeping Prado to spot starts and pinch hitting appearances. He doesn’t boast the same defensive range as he used to, and Brian Anderson, while a good right fielder, could be a great third baseman (his natural position).

MIAMI, FL – APRIL 11: Fans sitting in the stands during the game between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on April 11, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images) /

Attendance

The Miami Marlins have drawn 609,665 through their first 63 home games. For those of you who don’t have a calculator in your heads, that’s just 9,677 fans per game, easily the worst figure in the major leagues.

The Marlins’ attendance problems are well documented and long-standing. Although there is a long-term deal in place to keep the Miami Marlins in Miami, can you really picture the team here in 40 years if people continue to refuse to support them?

I know that fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. I know that the Marlins have orchestrated “fire sales” on four different occasions, as such things are defined. I know that the new group, led by Sherman and headed by Jeter, inherited an untenable business model as it stood.

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I also know that building this organization from the ground up is undoubtedly the right way to go about things. Miami has unloaded most of their high-dollar contracts. Not just Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna, either. Also Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa (which remains on the books, unfortunately). High-dollar remnants are the aforementioned Chen and Prado, as well as Starlin Castro. Outside of that, the Marlins may finally have some room to field a competitive team.

The fans will follow the wins, so the theory says anyway. Jeter has thus far not gained the trust of the Miami Marlins fanbase, but I really think that we need to give him more time.

We knew this year was a bust right from the very beginning. Anything more than 65 wins will be more than anyone expected, and anything less really isn’t hurting anybody. This club can return to contention, sooner rather than later. We just need to #Re2pecttheProcess.

dark. Next. The Future of the Miami Marlins?

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