Miami Marlins Spring Training Rotation: The Struggle is Real

Locked In

José Ureña

Ureña was the anchor and only constant of the 2018 rotation. After losing seven straight to open the campaign, he closed strong with six wins in a row. He was the top performer against replacement level on the pitching staff, finishing the year with a 1.0 WAR. While not considered an ace in the conventional sense of the word, he’s clearly the “ace by default” on the 2019 version of the Miami Marlins.

Dan Straily

One of only 11 players in the Miami Marlins system over the age of 30, Straily is a workhorse in comparison to our current generation of starting pitchers. Despite missing approximately 10 starts last season due to injury, Straily didn’t miss any starts over the two preceding seasons. Likely a trade-deadline loss to the Marlins, he should give us four months of solid production in the number two spot.

Outside of these two starters, there are many who could play their way into the rotation come Opening Day. Three of these next seven should fill those spots.

In Competition

Sandy Alcántara

Alcántara is currently the fourth ranked prospect in the Miami Marlins improving minor league system. According to the MLB Pipeline:

Alcantara’s control and command both leave much to be desired, but as he keeps adding velocity, he’s still learning to harness his stuff. While pinpoint command won’t be ever be necessary given his dynamic repertoire, he’ll need to pitch down in the zone consistently to be effective as a starter. At the least, Alcantara has the weapons to become a dominant closer at the highest level.

Jeff Brigham

Clocking in as the Miami Marlins 23rd ranked prospect entering Spring Training, Brigham had a rough introduction to major league hitting last September. He lost all four of his starts, but did limit opposing hitters to 16 hits in 16 1/3 innings. MLB Pipeline says:

Brigham has long possessed a power arm when healthy, sitting mostly in the mid-90s with a fastball that can touch 97 mph with good arm-side run. The right-hander complements his heater with a slider in the low- to mid-80s that flashes above average, and he also has a usable changeup.

Wei-Yin Chen

The now 33-year-old Chen still has two seasons remaining on his five-year, $80 million deal, with a vesting option for 2021. Since joining the Miami Marlins, he has put up a 13-18 record and a 4.75 ERA. That ERA is over a run more than the 3.72 he turned in as a Baltimore Orioles starter, despite the American League’s reliance on a designated hitter. His 2018 ERA+ of 76 was the lowest mark of his career. Despite his $20 million paycheck for this season, he is not guaranteed a starting spot in the rotation.

Pablo López

López has a leg up on the competition based on his solid showing in his first professional action last season. In 10 starts, he turned in a respectable 4.14 ERA and 46 K’s in 58 2/3 innings. The key piece gained from the Seattle Mariners in the David Phelps deal two years ago, López’ output has far outstripped that of the departed Phelps. That’s not even to consider the other three players gained in the trade for the Miami Marlins.

Trevor Richards

Richards well-publicized emergence from relative obscurity nears legend status for those who pay attention to the Miami Marlins. Just two years ago a substitute teacher and a laborer at a beer-bottling plant, Richards quickly rose through the Miami Marlins minor league system to make his major league debut last season for 25 starts, ranking third on the team behind Ureña and Chen. Richards tied for the team-lead with 130 strikeouts, earned in 126 1/3 innings, and finished with a solid if unspectacular 4.42 ERA. As to his middling 82 ERA+, he can and will do better.

Caleb Smith

Problems in his left shoulder sidelined Smith from late-June through the end of the 2018 season, his first with the Miami Marlins. Prior to his injury problems, Smith showed a knack for getting opponents to miss, with 88 strikeouts in only 77 innings. He was 5-6 with a 1.24 WHIP and a 4.19 ERA, and figures to improve on those numbers going forward.

Jordan Yamamoto

Maybe the longest-long shot on these players that I technically haven’t actually labelled as a long shot, Yamamoto joined the Miami Marlins organization as perhaps the least heralded of the four players gained from the Milwaukee Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade. He’s arguably performed the best of the group, which also includes Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, and Isan Diaz. All four are in camp, so maybe it’s a little too early for all the pundits who continue to insist that the Miami Marlins lost this trade. Talk to me in three years.

For Yamamoto’s sake, the Hawaiian native blasted the competition at three levels of minor league ball for the Miami Marlins, going 6-1 with a 1.83 ERA, 85 strikeouts in 68 2/3 innings, and a 0.83 WHIP. The knock on him is his size. At 6′, 185, there are those who think that maybe he will never have the durability needed to last through an entire big league season. Then again, who does, really?

Yamamoto enters Spring Training as the Marlins number 18 prospect overall, according to the MLB Pipeline:

Yamamoto’s swing-and-miss fastball, combined with his two average-or-better secondary offerings, gives him a chance to be successful against hitters on both sides of the plate, which he was in 2017. That he’s an undersized righty who lacks a plus pitch leads some to peg Yamamoto as a future reliever, but he’s passed every test in his career thus far.

There’s nothing particularly wrong with the players currently considered “long-shots.” They’re mostly just young guys who are maybe a season or so away from getting into the rotation.

Long Shots

Jordan Holloway

Holloway has only pitched 105 innings over the last three seasons, and none over low-A with the Greensboro Grasshoppers. His stuff is apparently filthy enough, however, for the Miami Marlins to protect him with a valuable 40-man roster spot. Despite that, he’s unlikely to break camp with the parent club. The 22-year-old right-hander will probably spend most of his 2019 campaign with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, in the double-A Southern League.

Jorge Guzman

Guzman went 0-9 with a 4.03 ERA in 2018 for the high-A Jupiter Hammerheads in the Florida State League. He struck out 101 in 96 innings, but also threw 16 wild pitches. Still just 23-years-old, he’s probably going to compete for a rotation spot in 2020 or 2021. He currently weighs in as the number seven prospect in the Miami Marlins system. According to the MLB Pipeline:

Guzman’s lightning-quick arm and relatively easy delivery produces exceptional velocity in a fastball that sits 97-103 mph as a starter. He showed better control of the pitch in 2017 after improving his mechanics, but regressed as a strike-thrower in ’18 while pitching in the Florida State League. Guzman’s power slider is an above-average pitch and complements his heater nicely, and together they help him to rack up strikeouts. He also has changeup that’s in its nascent stages.

Robert Dugger

Dugger went 10-7 between Jacksonville and the triple-A New Orleans Baby Cakes in the Pacific Coast League in 2018, pitching to a 3.40 ERA and 141 K’s in 150 2/3 innings. He held the opposition to a solid 1.21 WHIP, and currently ranks as the Miami Marlins number 26 prospect in the MLB Pipeline:

An athletic right-hander, Dugger repeats his delivery well and creates some deception with his three-quarters slot and cross-fire finish. He misses his share of bats but doesn’t project to do so as frequently at higher levels, as many evaluators forecast Dugger as a future back-end starter who relies on pounding the zone and generating weak contact.

Zac Gallen

Of the “long shots,” Gallen is perhaps the most ready to enter a big league rotation. In 2018, he pitched 25 games with the Baby Cakes, just one level below big-league ball, posting an 8-9 record and a 3.65 ERA. He struck out over a batter per inning at the high level, racking up 136 K’s in 133 1/3 innings. He is the Miami Marlins number 21 prospect.

Nick Neidert

Pegged as a solid bet for a future number four rotational starter, Neidert was 12-7 with a 3.24 ERA for the Jumbo Shrimp in 2018. He got 154 strikeouts in 152 2/3 innings, while walking only 31 batters. His 1.83 BB/9 rate isn’t just a flash in the pan either, as he boasts a career mark of 1.66. This statistic, maybe more than most others, is indicative of future success at the major league level. Neidert is Miami’s number five prospect entering Spring Training.

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