Miami Marlins 2020 Opening Day: The Starting Rotation

Which five pitchers will begin the 2020 MLB regular season as the Miami Marlins Opening Day rotation?

We all have our own theories, I’m sure, but even the Miami Marlins aren’t sure who the five will be come late-March. There are a few locks, a few likely candidates, a few possibilities, and a few dark horses in the running for the slots. I’ve counted a dozen in-system who would fit the bill.

In 2019, the Miami Marlins started their season with José Ureña (13 starts), Trevor Richards (20 starts), Pablo López (21 starts), Sandy Alcantara (32 starts), and Caleb Smith (28 starts). As the season progressed, they relied on replacements as injury started to take a toll on the status quo. Elieser Hernández and Jordan Yamamoto got the lion’s share of the “replacement” starts, with 15 each. Zac Gallen and Robert Dugger filled in with seven apiece, and Hector Noesi was called on for four turns.

Ureña went down to injury mid-season, and eventually resurfaced as a relief pitcher. After allowing an opposing slashline of .289/.343/.463, some envisioned Ureña as a bit of a sleeper candidate for the coveted closer role. In 11 relief appearances, however, he was torched for an opposing line of .318/.362/.545. His other splits also seem to favor him as a starter. After going 4-7 with a 4.70 ERA as the starter, he was 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in relief. Could Ureña somehow claim the Opening Day Starter role for the third consecutive season? Probably unlikely.

In his second mostly full season as a major league starter, Richards went 3-12 with a 4.50 ERA, 103 K’s in 112 innings, and a 1.384 WHIP. Not all-star material, to be sure, but good enough for a talent-starved franchise like the Miami Marlins. Regardless, they sent him off to the Tampa Bay Rays with Nick Anderson for Jesus Sanchez and Ryne Stanek.

López was 5-8 with a 5.09 ERA and 95 K’s in 111 1/3 innings in total, with a solid 1.240 WHIP. Looks can be deceiving, however, as Lopez followed a pretty solid first half with a lousy final seven starts of the season.

At the time he went on the injured list, López was 5-5 with a 4.23 ERA and an opposing batting average of .234. After his return in mid-August, he posted an 0-3 record with a 7.01 ERA and a .319 opposing batting average. One must wonder just how much of that regression was due to the injury. His average GameScore dropped from 53 (just above average) through mid-June to a mark of 41 after the return.

But you didn’t come here to learn about last season. What’s on tap for 2020?

Sandy Alcantara

Alcantara is probably the only slam-dunk solid lock for the Opening Day rotation. The only starter to make every turn through the 2019 campaign, Alcantara seemed to turn a corner after the trade deadline. Compare his pre-deadline numbers with his post-deadline numbers.

Pre-Deadline: 4-10, 4.54 ERA, .261/.350/.440, 6.51 K/9 over 123 innings, 1.480 WHIP

Post-Deadline: 2-4, 2.78 ERA, .207/.271/.324, 7.51 K/9 over 74 1/3 innings, 1.049 WHIP

What’s clear is that Alcantara seemed to figure out this whole “pitching” thing right around that time. I mean, sure, he knew how to pitch before that, but since the trade deadline came and went, Alcantara was the clear “ace” of the staff.

Caleb Smith

Smith, also affectionately known around these parts as “Dr. K,” first made a dent in the Miami Marlins rotation in 2018, going 5-6 with a 4.19 ERA over 16 starts before making a near-year-long trip to the injured list in June. Smith had a 10.2 K/9 rate when he went down, good for 88 whiffs in 77 1/3 innings.

The Miami Marlins decided to err on the side of caution when bringing Smith back into live game-action, waiting until the 2019 regular season to play him. He didn’t disappoint. Smith’s 1.8 WAR ranked second from amongst the Marlins starters, behind only Alcantara’s 2.9. He led the team in victories, going 10-11 with a 4.52 ERA and striking out a club-leading 168 in 153 1/3 innings for a 9.9 K/9 rate.

Alcantara and Smith are the only starters that I would consider a “lock” going into the offseason, with Alcantara solid as the number one and Smith a good number two.

I’m calling these three pitchers the “70 percenters” because that’s approximately the odds I believe that they’ll each start the 2020 season in the Miami Marlins rotation.

Pablo López

As already stated, it was a tale of two seasons for López. Solid through the first half, then right off a cliff for the second. Luckily for him, the Miami Marlins likely believe that what they saw through the last month and a half of 2019 from López was an aberration.

Lopez led the starters in 2019 with a FIP of 4.28, which is suggestive that he was somewhat better than his 5.09 ERA would indicate. He should have another full season to prove it.

Jordan Yamamoto

Yamamoto was considered a “throw-in” by the Milwaukee Brewers in the trade that made Christian Yelich an ex-Miami Marlins center fielder.

Although Yamamoto walked a too few many, 4.1 per nine innings, his 1.144 WHIP would have registered as the best mark from amongst the starters if he had pitched a few more innings. Yamamoto only surrendered 54 hits in 78 2/3 innings for a .191/.292/.355 opposing slashline. His 15 starts yielded a 4-5 record and a 4.46 ERA overall.

Yamamoto made headlines by starting out his major league career by not surrendering a run until his third start. He had racked up a dozen strikeouts and allowed only five hits over his first 14 innings, and didn’t allow more than three hits in a game until his sixth start. In his final start of the season, he struck out 10 in six innings of one hit ball to defeat the New York Mets, 4-2.

Elieser Hernández

Elieser Hernández was leaps and bounds better in 2019 than in the season prior. He dropped his WHIP from 1.447 to 1.239 and increased his K-rate from 6.2 to 9.3.

In his second major league season since being selected in the rule 5 draft prior to the 2018 season, Hernández went 3-5 with a 5.03 ERA and struck out 85 in 82 1/3 innings, also trimming his walk rate from 3.7 down to 2.8. He’s currently got the inside track on a rotation spot, but he’s not set-in-stone either.

 José Ureña

Ureña didn’t do himself any favors with his substandard return to the active roster after a stay on the injured list. Although he’s arbitration eligible, and doesn’t hit free agency until the 2022 season, he’s not even really guaranteed that the Miami Marlins will have him on the Opening Day roster, let alone in the rotation.

Although Ureña faces an uphill battle, he has, in the past, shown that he has “the stuff” to stick.

Nick Neidert

Neidert didn’t have the best showing in the Miami Marlins minor league feeder affiliate system in 2019, collecting a 1.556 WHIP across three levels of play. He has, however, been a rock star in the Arizona Fall League, compiling a 2-0 record, a 1.62 ERA, 17 K’s, and only 11 hits allowed in 16 2/3 innings for a 0.780 WHIP.

Neidert’s fall league showing may have opened some doors for him.

Robert Dugger

Dugger got his first look at major league hitting near the end of the 2019 campaign, and the results were probably not as good as he would have hoped for. Through seven starts, he was 0-4 with a 5.77 ERA, 25 K’s in 34 1/3 innings, and a 1.456 WHIP.

On the other hand, Dugger also showed glimpses of what makes him a prospect that can’t be dismissed. On August 29th, he struck out seven over seven three-hit innings in an eventual 4-3 victory over the Cincinnati Reds. It’s just the sort of thing that begs another look.

Sixto Sanchez

Sixto Sanchez, along with Will Stewart and Jorge Alfaro, came over to the Miami Marlins (and their affiliates) in the pre-season trade with the Philadelphia Phillies for J.T. Realmuto.

Sanchez owned Southern League hitters after his promotion from the high-A Jupiter Hammerheads to the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp early in the season. In 18 starts, he went 8-4 with a 2.53 ERA, 97 whiffs in 103 frames, along with only 19 walks. Sanchez touches 100 on the gun on occasion, and a precision rate which allows a sub-2 BB/9 is something special when paired with such a flame thrower.

Still, it’s far more likely that Sanchez spends the better part of the season with the Shrimp or with the as-yet-unnamed Wichita triple-A club, for additional seasoning.

Edward Cabrera

Like Sanchez, Edward Cabrera will also likely spend most of his time at double- and triple-A in 2020.

Between the Sharks and the Shrimp in 2019, Cabrera posted a 9-4 record and a 2.23 ERA over 19 starts, with a 10.8 K/9 rate and a 0.993 WHIP to his credit. Hey, the Miami Marlins have put much less-deserving guys in as starter over the past few years, why not Cabrera?