Free Agent Signees the Marlins Shouldn’t Be Afraid of

Madison Bumgarner

Nobody is ever going to forget the heroics that this guy pulled off in the 2014 World Series. Twenty-one innings over three games, with 17 whiffs and only nine hits allowed for a total ERA of 0.43. The most impressive part of it was, three days after an eight hit shutout, in Game Five, Bumgarner earned a victory with five shutout innings of relief, allowing two hits and striking out four in Game Seven. Of course, he was awarded the World Series Most Valuable Player Award for his efforts.

A four-time all-star with the Giants, Bumgarner was held to 38 starts between 2017 and 2018 due to injury. He rebounded to lead the majors with 34 starts in 2019.

So, why would we be scared of signing Bumgarner, a ferocious competitor and notorious gamer? Well, it’s been three years since he was considered an all-star, and Fangraphs.com has him projected to average 24 starts over the next three campaigns, with a gradual dip in K-rate and a corresponding rise in opponent’s batting average.

Still though, Bumgarner is likely a can’t-miss deal, having just completed a five-year, $35 million deal, as well as the two bonus-option years worth an additional $24 million. It’s unknown what he’s worth on the upcoming market, but a conservative estimate will fetch somewhere in the neighborhood of four-years, $85 million – but buyer must always beware. Remember what happened with “can’t miss” Wei-Yin Chen.

Marcell Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna departed the Marlins for greener pastures in the post-2017 trade that netted Daniel Castano, Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, and Magneuris Sierra. Alcantara seems the likely staff ace, Sierra a possible permanent center fielder, and Gallen was traded to the Diamondbacks for Jazz Chisholm. Only Castano is a net unknown at this point, but a 7-2 record and 3.35 ERA with the Double-A Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp in 2019 points to another possible future major leaguer.

With their prospects, the Cardinals gained an all-star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger after Ozuna’s to-date career season. He hit .312/.376/.548 with 37 homers and 124 RBI in 2017 for the Marlins.

Following the trade, Ozuna has given the Cardinals diminished returns. In 2018 he slashed .280/.325/.433, followed by a further dip in 2019 with a .241/.328/.472. Although he’s still passable in the outfield, his Gold Glove credentials took a hit with his well-publicized poor fielding.

Despite Ozuna’s downward-trending overall arc, he’ll still be only 29-years-old when the 2020 season starts. He just completed a one-year, $12.25 million deal, and he’s still capable of great things. He’s not to the non-roster invitee portion of his career, at any rate, at least not yet. On the free agent market, I think Ozuna could possibly go somewhere in the three-year, $43 million range. The Marlins could get him back, and possibly set him up right next to Sierra. Wouldn’t that be something?

Cole Hamels

Another four-time all-star, Cole Hamels’ last such campaign was in 2016, when he was 15-5 with a 3.32 ERA for the Texas Rangers. He’s struck out just under a batter-per-inning through his 14-season major league career, and will start his age-36 season in 2020 with an as yet undetermined team.

Hamels just completed the final year of an eight-year, $173 million deal he originally signed while with the Phillies. From 2008 through 2016, he topped 200 innings in every season but one, and in that one, he threw 193 1/3. Since then, he’s fell short of that mark in all three years, pitching just 141 2/3 innings this season for the Chicago Cubs. He also turned in the worst WHIP of his career, by a wide margin in 2019 with a mark of 1.391.

Hamels isn’t quite a top-flight starter at this point of his career, but I’m sure someone will pony up a decent deal for him. Instead of a multi-year contract, however, I believe it’s a lot more likely that he goes for a one- or two-year contract. The Marlins could do far worse than making a play for the second-best “Cole” on the market.

Robinson Chirinos

Robinson Chirinos has a career slashline of .234/.329/.439. After spending most of his career with the Texas Rangers, he spent last season with the Houston Astros.

The 6’1″ Venezuelan catcher has been in the majors since 2011, but has never played in more than 114 games, achieved this season with the Astros. Now 35-years-old, Chirinos hasn’t beat the league average for throwing out baserunners since 2014, and has fallen well short of that mark in each of the last two years.

There’s not a huge market for catchers at Chirinos’ age, and I’m afraid he’s no upgrade over the recently free-agent declared Bryan Holaday, at least not defensively. He’s probably not going to get a good multi-year deal anywhere, but someone is going to pick him up for a one-year contract. That someone could be the Marlins.

Cameron Maybin

Cameron Maybin has already twice been a Marlins outfielder, most recently in 2018. He wasn’t bad for the Yankees in 2019, slashing his best line since 2016 with the Tigers. He slashed .285/.364/.494 this year for the Bombers, with a career-high 11 homers and 32 RBI.

A one-time 40-base stealer, the 33-year-old Maybin is no longer a viable double-digit stolen base threat, but he’s still fast enough to swipe once in a while. Another free agent who probably won’t have a problem finding a team to sign him, the Marlins could actually pick him up to bolster their questionable outfield.

Maybin is almost a guarantee to top Granderson’s 2019 output. The Marlins could probably get him for a pretty affordable sticker price, and count on him for a solid clubhouse presence.

What do you think? Is there anyone out there that would scare you off? Did one of these players look like a good deal to you? I’m not scared of your comments, so let me have it. Thanks for reading.