December Recap: How Have the Miami Marlins Changed?

This offseason, the month of December has been a pretty busy time for the Marlins.

With 11 personnel moves, December 2019 will unlikely go down in history as a game-changer. For the Marlins, however, these moves could add up to something substantial in the long term.

Judging by the 2018 offseason, the Marlins made 20 moves in total, but only one after December 15th. That was to promote Mike Jacobs from their Short-season-A affiliate, the Batavia Muckdogs in the New York-Penn League to the Single-A Clinton LumberKings in the Midwest League, as manager.

This offseason, there haven’t been any managerial changes in the Marlins system reported by Pro Sports Transactions, a pari-mutual tracker for all four major sports. There have, however, been a total of 422 transactions throughout major league baseball. That’s not even counting two of Miami’s more notable recent acquisitions, including Matt Kemp signing a minor league deal.

Kemp is a two-time Gold Glove, two-time Silver Slugger, three-time all-star who rose to stardom with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Since he turned 30-years-old in 2014, he’s played for four different teams. He’s given them slightly diminishing returns in each season, save for an abberant all-star campaign back with the Dodgers in 2018. He’s been a free agent since the New York Mets released him in early June.

Now-35-years-old, can Kemp give a shot-in-the-arm to a rising Marlins roster? This is what we were hoping for from Curtis Granderson through the 2019 campaign, but Grandy managed to hit just .183 in 138 games for Miami, with 12 homers and 34 RBI.

The Marlins hope that Kemp can revert to his 2018 form, when he surprised the Dodgers by hitting .290 with 21 homers in 146 games. He would provide an invaluable safety net to the group of young outfield hopefuls the Marlins are seeking to employ in 2020, also serving as the voice of experience in a young locker room. If Kemp can play to the level of 1.0 WAR, it will have been a success. This is a slideshow. The right arrow will take you to the next page.

What else has Miami been up to?

On November 2nd, Jonathan Villar, formerly of the Baltimore Orioles, was inexplicably placed on waivers. The Marlins had second dibs on him, after the Detroit Tigers due to their respective win-loss records. The Orioles reclaimed Villar at that point so they wouldn’t lose him for nothing at all, and the Marlins traded minor league pitcher Easton Lucas to Baltimore for his services.

Although never considered an all-star, Villar is coming off his best major league season, after hitting .274/.339/.453 with 24 jacks, 73 RBI, and 40 stolen bases. He was worth 4.0 WAR, according to Baseball Reference, and gives the Marlins an instant 30-30 threat, especially with the changes to the outfield walls.

Villar led the National League with 62 stolen bags in 2016, while playing for the Milwaukee Brewers. Although he plays mostly at shortstop and at second base, the Marlins seem to have him pegged as their new third baseman, freeing up Brian Anderson to play where he’s best, in right field.

To make room for Villar, the Marlins designated shortstop J.T. Riddle for assignment, and Riddle declined in order to become a free agent.

Ranked as high as number 10 on the Marlins prospect list, back in 2016 (by MLB Pipeline), Riddle has played in 223 games for the Marlins, mostly at shortstop with a 31-game experiment in center field.

Riddle managed a slashline of .229/.269/.368 with 18 moon shots and 79 RBI over 668 plate appearances, but the Marlins had seen enough after an underwhelming 2019. Riddle hit just .189 in 51 games last year, and finished with a -0.4 WAR.

The addition of Villar and the subtraction of Riddle makes the Marlins 4.4 wins better than last year. Along with our cautious estimate of a 1.0 WAR from Kemp, we’re already six wins above last season’s clip. I know that translates to a 63-99 season, but the Marlins weren’t done yet.

Jesus Aguilar was a 3.2 WAR player in 2018 for the Milwaukee Brewers when he hit .274/.352/.539 with 35 home runs and 108 RBI in 149 games. After underwhelming the Cheese State with a substandard first four months in 2019, Milwaukee flipped Aguilar to the Tampa Bay Rays at the trade deadline for Jake Faria.

After just 37 games with the Rays, they parted ways with the former all-star via waivers, where the Marlins picked him up. To make room for him (metaphorically), they dropped Tayron Guerrero.

Guerrero touched some serious numbers on the gun during his time in Miami, peaking at 104 MPH. His promise, however, was always colored with a lack of control. In 2018 for the Marlins, he struck out 68 in 58 innings, while walking 30. Not perfect, but workable anyway. Those metrics declined in 2019 to 43 K’s in 46 innings, along with 36 walks. That’s a 7.0 BB/9 rate, unacceptable in a major league reliever – no matter his promise.

As was Riddle, Guerrero was designated for assignment. Four days later, the Chicago White Sox picked him up on waivers.

Continuing our math from earlier, Guerrero was -0.7 WAR in 2019. Along with that 3.2 mark for Aguilar, and the six wins mentioned earlier, the Marlins are 10 games up already – but the Marlins still weren’t (and hopefully aren’t) quite finished.

On December 9th, Tyler Kinley was placed on waivers by the Marlins, and the Colorado Rockies swooped in to snatch him up.

Although not a corresponding move, exactly, Miami signed infielder and New York Yankees alum Gosuke Katoh to a minor league deal, also issuing the Poway, CA native an invitation to Spring Training.

Kinley was a relatively solid part of the Marlins bullpen in 2019, and ranked sixth on the club in pitcher WAR, at 0.8. He was 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA over 52 appearances, with a 1.601 WHIP.

Initially drafted as a 16th rounder in 2013, Kinley worked his way up through the Marlins system to the Triple-A level in 2016, with the New Orleans Zephyrs. After he posted a 2.92 ERA in 40 games in 2017 with the Double-A Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, the Minnesota Twins chose him in the rule 5 draft.

But after a 24.30 ERA over 3 1/3 innings of work, the Twins returned Kinley to the Marlins. Although he proved he wasn’t quite ready for the majors in 2018, he showed this past season that he does belong.

Katoh was a second rounder for the Yankees in the same draft, and has spent the past seven seasons in their minor league affiliate feeder system. In 649 contests, the six-foot-three infielder has racked up a .251/.354/.374 line, with 38 homers and 242 RBI. He’s also stolen 80 bases in 113 attempts, but his projections remain somewhat unknown. It’s possible he doesn’t make the cut in Spring Training, but its really anybody’s ballgame, so to speak.