Marlins Trades: Winners and Losers in the Jeter Era

Two days after the Gordon deal, the Marlins traded Giancarlo Stanton and $30 million to the New York Yankees. In return, the Yankees parted ways with Starlin Castro, Jorge Guzman, and Jose Devers.

Since departing, Stanton has played two seasons for the Yankees, including an injury-wrecked 2019. In 176 games, he’s hit .268/.349/.507 with 41 homers and 113 RBI and has been worth 4.4 WAR. The big right-fielder, a four-time all-star and the 2017 National League MVP for the Marlins, has not been an all-star as yet as part of the Bombers.

Castro’s two seasons for Miami resulted in 316 games, mostly at second base. He also was one of only five major leaguers to appear in all 162 games in 2019. His slash line was largely in line with his career figures for the two seasons, at .274/.314/.418. He hit 34 home runs (including a career-high 22 in 2019), and 140 RBI. He graded out at 4.1 WAR in total.

Now 16th-ranked prospect Guzman has yet to ascend to the majors, but has struck out 228 in 234 2/3 innings between the High-A Jupiter Hammerheads in the Florida State League and the Jumbo Shrimp. Last year he was 7-11 with a 3.50 ERA in Jacksonville, and is now part of the Marlins 40-man roster with an outside shot of making the team out of camp.

Devers, Miami’s #10th overall prospect, is a middle-infielder and has just turned 20-years-old. Injured through most of 2019, he’s still about two-to-three years from impacting the majors. Look for him in 2020 with the Hammerheads or the Jumbo Shrimp.

To date, this particular trade is about even, but it could still go either way based on how Devers and Guzman shake out. That, and Stanton’s volatile injury history suggest this trade isn’t quite ready for a historical evaluation.

On December 14th, the Marlins traded Ozuna to the St. Louis Cardinals. In return, Miami received starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, and Daniel Castano, along with speedy outfielder Magneuris Sierra.

Ozuna has played 278 games for St. Louis since leaving Miami, and hit .262/.327/.451 with 52 home runs and 177 RBI. The two-time former all-star, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award winner hasn’t been honored such since joining the Redbirds. Thus far, he’s been worth 5.1 WAR.

Alcantara has started 38 games for the Marlins since joining the team, going 8-17 with a 3.81 ERA. He’s been more solid later in his run, with a 1.049 WHIP over the last two months of 2019. He has built up 3.6 WAR during his run thus far.

Gallen was staggeringly good for the Baby Cakes in the PCL in 2019, going 9-1 with a 1.77 ERA, 112 K’s in 91 1/3 innings, and putting up a 0.712 WHIP before getting called up. With the Marlins, he was 1-3 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.3 WAR before getting flipped to the Arizona Diamondbacks for shortstop Jazz Chisholm at the trade deadline.

Sierra has appeared in 69 games for Miami since the trade, hitting .225 with six stolen bases and totaling -0.9 WAR. He was notably better in a short look near the end of last year, hitting .350 over 15 games.

Still in the minors, lefty Castano also seems bound for bigger and better things. 7-2 with a 3.35 ERA for the Jumbo Shrimp in 2019, he seems on track to join the Marlins at the major league level sometime in late-2020 or out of camp in 2021.

So, Ozuna’s 5.1 WAR thus far outweighs the total 4.0 WAR from the four prospects we got in return, but this one may be the winner when all is said and done, and sooner probably than later.

On January 25th, 2018, the Marlins traded away then-future NL MVP Christian Yelich to the Milwaukee Brewers for a quartet of promising young prospects. Namely, outfielders Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, second baseman Isan Diaz, and starting pitcher Jordan Yamamoto.

Yelich’s further travails are well documented. Since leaving Miami, he’s slashed .327/.415/.631, with 80 home runs and 207 RBI, along with 52 stolen bases in only 58 tries. He won the 2018 NL MVP and came in second in 2019, due only to missing the final month of the campaign with an injury. The now-two-time defending NL batting champion also led the NL with his OBP and SLG this season, with a league-best 179 OPS+. He’s earned 14.7 WAR since leaving, as compared to a Marlins-franchise sixth-all-time 18.9 before.

At the time, Brinson figured to be the centerpiece of the deal, with a nice five-tool scouting report to go with it. In 184 games since coming over, he’s hit just .189 with 11 homers and 57 RBI, including a .173/.236/.221 slashline in 2019, with zero home runs and 15 RBI. He’s been -2.3 WAR for Miami.

Yamamoto, who at the time was considered sort of a “throw in” to the larger deal, has gone 4-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 15 starts for Miami. He’s struck out 82 in 78 2/3 innings and allowed an oppBA of .191 and a 1.144 WHIP for a 1.0 WAR.

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Diaz made his major league debut with two months left in 2019, and hit just .173 in 49 games for Miami. He hit five round-trippers with 23 RBI, but struck out 59 times in 201 plate appearances for a -0.7 WAR.

Harrison has the loudest tools of the bunch, but hasn’t made his major league debut as of yet. Injured much of 2019, he clubbed 19 homers in 2018 for Jacksonville, but struck out a minor-league-wide-high 215 times in 583 plate appearances, a scary 36.9 percent whiff-rate.

As of this moment, the Marlins clearly lost this trade. They still remain on board with Brinson despite his struggles, and hope to see Harrison graduate to the top level as well. Yamamoto seems like he’ll be part of the rotation next season, and the second base job is Diaz’ to lose. Still, their combined output is unlikely to rival that of Yelich’s Herculean efforts of the last two seasons.