Miami Marlins 2020 Likely Opening Day Rotation

Improving on a 57-105 season shouldn’t be very difficult.

The Marlins will begin the 2020 season with a variety of options available for the rotation. Spring Training remains to be played, and free agency is never really done, but we can kind of suss out what the Opening Day rotation will look like in 89 more days.

Being on the 40-man roster is no guarantee that a player will break camp with the parent club. Not being on the 40-man roster makes the odds longer, but players have surprised before. Jon Berti was the latest non-roster invitee to flourish after a strong spring.

On the Marlins current 40-man roster, starting options include Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Robert Dugger, Jarlin Garcia, Jorge Guzman, Elieser Hernandez, Jordan Holloway, Pablo Lopez, Humberto Mejia, Nick Neidert, Sixto Sanchez, Caleb Smith, Jose Urena, and Jordan Yamamoto.

Of the 14 players listed above, count on Cabrera, Guzman, Holloway, Mejia, and Sanchez to begin the season either with the Triple-A Wichita Wind Surge in the Pacific Coast League or with the Double-A Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp in the Southern League. Further, consider Garcia and Urena as bullpen arms. That leaves seven others to fight for five spots.

Alcantara, as the clear ace of the staff after a strong final two months of the 2019 season, has the inside track on Opening Day starter. After that, things become slightly muddy.

Free agent starters have become harder to come by. The current crop is topped by former Marlins starter Andrew Cashner. Ivan Nova, Jason Vargas, Tom Milone, Rich Hill, Matt Moore, and Homer Bailey are the last viable options available.

Barring an acquisition of one of these free agents, who will begin the 2020 campaign as the “starting five?”

Lefty-starter Caleb Smith, out of Huntsville, TX, is a six-foot-two product of Sam Houston State University. Initially a 14th-round choice of the New York Yankees in 2013, Smith joined the Marlins in a trade that didn’t get as much press as the other four “big trades” of the formative days of the Sherman-Jeter ownership era.

The Marlins traded away minor-league pitcher Michael King to the Yankees for Smith and Garrett Cooper. Although both Smith and Cooper have struggled with assorted injuries, for the most part, they’ve produced more than expected.

In 16 starts through the 2018 season, Smith was 5-6 with a 4.19 ERA and 88 K’s in 77 1/3 innings. Opponents managed a 1.241 WHIP against him, and his 10.2 K/9 rate led the Marlins rotation. At no time during that first season was Smith more dominant than on April 29th, when he pitched seven shutout innings in a 3-1 loss to the Colorado Rockies. Smith whiffed nine and surrendered two hits and one walk.

In 2019, Smith missed a few turns in the rotation with an early-June injury, but recovered to close with a team-second 28 starts. He led the team in victories, going 10-11, while striking out 168 in 153 1/3 innings.

Smith’s big weakness is a propensity to give up the long-ball, with a league-high 33 taters surrendered through the season. A 1.226 WHIP and a 4.52 ERA would be the fruits of Smith’s labors last year, and he led the club with a 9.9 K/9.

Like Alcantara and Smith, control specialist Pablo Lopez joined the Marlins in a 2017 trade and started a handful of games in 2018. A right-handed thrower and left-handed batter, Lopez is a native of Cabimas, Venezuela.

Lopez joined the team at the 2017 trade deadline under the previous ownership group. GM Michael Hill managed to gain Brayan Hernandez, Lukas Schiraldi, Brandon Miller, and Lopez for David Phelps.

Schiraldi and Miller have since been released by the Marlins, and Phelps has gone on to play for the Chicago Cubs and the Toronto Blue Jays. Hernandez spent 2019 with the Single-A Clinton LumberKings in the Midwest League.

Lopez has proved to be, if not a strikeout pitcher, an accomplished precision specialist. He walked only 18 in 58 2/3 innings in 2018, going 2-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 46 whiffs. He closed shop with a 1.261 WHIP.

In 2019, Lopez led the Marlins by issuing only 2.2 walks per nine innings, going 5-8 with a 5.09 ERA. In only three of his 21 starts did he issue more than two walks, and never more than four. On May 18th, Lopez shut out the Mets for seven innings on one hit and a pair of walks, striking out seven in a 1-0 Marlins victory.

Lopez is still pretty young, and will have just turned 24 at the start of the 2020 season. With a full and healthy season, he could yet discover another gear. Look for him to improve on his WAR figures of 0.4 and 0.5, respectively.

Yet another trade acquisition, Yamamoto joined the Marlins in the infamous Christian Yelich deal with the Milwaukee Brewers in early 2018. At the time considered by many to be a “throw-in,” Yamamoto has shown he may be the diamond in the rough. Along with Yamamoto, the Marlins gained Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, and Monte Harrison, a trio of toolsy but flawed hitters.

After a strong 2018 minor league campaign that saw Yamamoto post a 1.83 ERA over 13 starts, with 85 strikeouts in 68 2/3 innings, the Marlins saw fit to start him with the Jumbo Shrimp in 2019.

A Pearl City, HI native, the six-foot right-hander is still just 23-years-old, and made his major league debut in June of last season. Yamamoto made 15 starts at the major league level for the Marlins, and didn’t allow more than four hits until his ninth start for the team. In fact, over his first two starts, he allowed only five hits and struck out 12 in 14 shutout innings as the Marlins defeated the Cardinals twice, 9-0 and 6-0.

In Yamamoto’s final start of the campaign, on September 26th, he whiffed a career-best 10 over six one-hit innings, surrendering three walks and no runs in an eventual 4-2 win against the Mets. He ended up at 4-5 with a 4.46 ERA, a rotation-best 1.144 WHIP, and 82 K’s in 78 2/3 innings.

Yamamoto is the probable number four starter, but things can get interesting in Spring Training.

Which brings us to the biggest question thus far: who’s number five? Former rule 5 acquisition Elieser Hernandez has the inside track, after a solid 2019 that saw him issue 85 strikeouts in 82 1/3 innings. He ranked tied for fifth on the team with 15 starts, and went 3-5 with a 5.03 ERA.

Hernandez is a six-foot-even right-handed native of Ocumare del Tuy, VZ, and can either start or relieve. He’s as likely to begin the year in the bullpen, in the swing-starter role he has so ably filled over the past two seasons for the Marlins.

Dugger made his major league debut last season, going 0-4 with a 5.77 ERA over seven starts. He was best in his second start, when he struck out seven in as many innings on August 29th, in an eventual 4-3 win against the Cincinnati Reds. Dugger surrendered two unearned runs on three hits and a walk.

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Neidert is also a possible wildcard to the proceedings. Named the 2018 Marlins Minor League Pitcher of the Year after going 12-7 with a 3.24 ERA for the Jumbo Shrimp, he was limited in 2019 by injury, but could challenge with a good spring.

Both Dugger and Neidert arrived in the Marlins organization via the Dee Gordon trade, another deal that is looking better with each passing season.

My money is on Hernandez, but Neidert could surprise. Dugger should begin the year with Wichita. For further developments as the 2020 season begins to take shape, keep your ear to the rail by following Marlin Maniac on Twitter, and thanks for reading.