What Will the Marlins Opening Day Lineup Look Like?

As the 2020 Marlins continue to take shape during the offseason, we can make some educated guesses on how the Opening Day lineup is going to shake out.

The Marlins could go any number of ways, and after all, I don’t work for the team. Adding to that, there’s no telling how Spring Training will play out, if injuries will play a part, or if the Marlins are anywhere near done signing talent. With all that being said, here’s what I think the Miami Marlins Opening Day lineup will look like if there are no additional changes to the team.

Top of the Marlins Order

(1) Jon Berti CF

In his first expanded look at the major league level, utility infielder/outfielder Jon Berti made the most of his chances. In 73 games he hit .273/.344/.410 with six home runs, 24 RBI, and 17 stolen bases in only 20 attempts. He made starts at shortstop, center field, and second base, also appearing as a defensive replacement in both right and left field.

In 146 2/3 innings as a center fielder for the Marlins last season, Berti made one error out of his 40 overall chances for a .975 fPCT. Although advanced metrics suggest he’s somewhat below a “league average” center fielder, I think that suffers from a relatively small sample size. When it all boils down, I think Berti’s speed is an asset well suited to a job in center field, maybe better than anyone else on the roster.

Despite appearing in under half of Miami’s games last year, Berti’s 1.4 WAR ranked third on the team amongst their position players, tied with Garrett Cooper and behind only Brian Anderson at 3.8 and Miguel Rojas at 2.4. Extrapolated over a full campaign, Berti could be another 4.0 WAR player and a legitimate 20-40 threat.

(2) Miguel Rojas SS

Of all the players on the Marlins roster, Rojas is most clearly the team captain. As goes Rojas, so go the Marlins. Day in and day out through his first five seasons with the team, he can always be counted on to give his 100 percent.

Traditionally, Rojas could be counted on to play any of the infield spots as needed. Last season, the Marlins decided to let him run with the ball as the full-time shortstop. He rewarded them by hitting .284 over 132 appearances, and providing well-above average defense – 12 runs DRS above average in fact. That translated to a 1.7 dWAR, the ninth best mark in the National League regardless of position.

You know what you’re getting with Rojas as well. A guy who’s going to play hard, provide solid defense, and hit the ball between .260 and .290 with occasional bursts of power.

(3) Brian Anderson RF

Miami’s most valuable player by WAR last season, with 3.8, Brian Anderson turned that particular trick despite missing the last month+ of the season when he fractured his left fifth metacarpal.

When healthy, Anderson is the best third baseman the Marlins have, but he may also be their best right fielder. In 126 games last season he hit .261/.342/.468 with 20 homers and 66 RBI. From right field, he pitched in with nine assists in only 55 games, which projects to 20+ in a full campaign.

Baseball reference is bearish on Anderson’s 2020 home run output – they’re predicting 15 for a full season’s work. Despite that, Anderson has gotten better in each season so far, and I don’t think he’s done improving. Look for Anderson to anchor the Marlins order with 25-to-30 homers and a pile of doubles.

(4) Corey Dickerson LF

The Marlins lucked out when they inked Corey Dickerson to a two-year, $17.5 million deal earlier this week. The athletic lefty hitter slashed .304/.341/.565 in 78 appearances last season between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates, through a variety of injurious ailments.

Again, baseball reference is selling low on Dickerson’s output next season, projecting less than 400 plate appearances. A 2017 American League All Star with the Tampa Bay Rays and a 2018 National League Gold Glove Awardee with the Bucs, look for Dickerson to continue solid play in left field.

Although Dickerson has never hit more than 27 homers in any season (his 2017 with the Rays), he remains a solid 30-home run threat – one of four on the team now, by my count.

(7) Jorge Alfaro C

Jorge Alfaro will swing at anything, no apologies. He’s still a reasonably productive backstop, with a .262/.312/.425 slashline. He hit 18 homers last season with 57 RBI, playing in 130 games for the Marlins.

With a full season, Alfaro’s a good bet to challenge for 20 home runs. He’ll continue to provide average defense along with a slightly above average kill-rate on runners trying to steal. He put up a 33 percent CS rate in 2019.

(8) Isan Diaz 2B

Isan Diaz was more miss than hit in his first major league look starting in late-July last season. He ended up turning in a .173/.259/.307 slashline, with 59 strikeouts in 201 plate appearances for a 29.4 percent K-rate. On the other side of the ball, Diaz was smack-dab in the middle of National League defensive second basemen, worth one DRS above average.

But the Marlins are counting on Diaz to pull a rabbit out of his hat and rediscover the hitting stroke he showed at Triple-A through the first 2/3 of the 2019 campaign. He had a beautiful .305/.395/.578 line through 102 games, with 26 home runs and 70 RBI.

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The truth of Diaz is somewhere between the former and the latter, let’s just hope its more of what the last iteration of the New Orleans Baby Cakes were party to.

1. Jon Berti CF
2. Miguel Rojas SS
3. Brian Anderson RF
4. Corey Dickerson LF
5. Jesus Aguilar 1B
6. Jonathan Villar 3B
7. Jorge Alfaro C
8. Isan Diaz 2B

How different are the Miami Marlins going to look like on 2020 Opening Day from the 2019 version? By this account, only three will survive from one year to the next in their prior form – Alfaro, Anderson, and Rojas. We’ll have to see how Spring Training goes, but this is my bet from the cheap seats right now.