How the Marlins Will Finish in the Playoff Race (in 2020)

Digging In

Fielders

Starting at the top of the Steamer projections, Brian Anderson is projected at 2.3. Considering he nearly doubled that in 126 games in 2019, I think that this particular projection may be a little off, due to their undervalue of Anderson as a right fielder. I’m going to go out on a limb here and project a 5.0 WAR for Anderson in 2020, full stop. This, by itself, turns the Marlins into a 70-win club (with 22.3 WAR), but I’m not really satisfied with it.

Jonathan Villar is next down from the top, and projects at 1.8 WAR. The system predicts 17 home runs, 32 stolen bases, and a .257 average. Now, Villar has never been below replacement, actually clocking in at the actual replacement level in his rookie campaign in 2013 with the Houston Astros. Since then, he’s topped 120 games in three of his six seasons of play, with WAR figures of 3.9, 0.1, and 4.0 – an average of 2.7. If he stays healthy, I don’t think there’s any reason he can’t duplicate at least a 3.0 WAR. Now up to 23.5 WAR, the Marlins are a 71-91 club.

Miguel Rojas is next, at 1.7 WAR. Now, I don’t know how closely you, personally, have been paying attention to Rojas’ output, but his last three seasons have resulted in WAR figures of 2.2, 2.4, and 2.4, respectively (mostly due to great defense). Rojas is a safe bet to continue that track, and I don’t think a mark of 2.5 is too “pie in the sky” for our purposes. Up to 24.3 WAR now, the Marlins are 72-90.

Jorge Alfaro is next up, at 1.1 WAR. That actually appears to be dead on, as Alfaro has totaled 2.2 WAR over his two full major league seasons. I’ll leave this one alone. Still 72-90.

Corey Dickerson is also valued at 1.1, just like Alfaro. Unlike Alfaro, Dickerson has a trackable increase in WAR every season from 2015 through 2018, from 0.5 to 1.5 to 2.5 to 3.8. Clobbered by the injury bug in 2019, he only totaled 0.8 WAR, but his .565 slugging percentage as a lefty put him in elite company. If he remains healthy, another 4.0 WAR season is not out of the question. Now up to 27.2 WAR, the Marlins sit at 75-87.

The rest of the fielders shake out as such. (with my adjustment, when warranted, in parenthesis).

Jesus Aguilar 0.7 (1.5)
Isan Diaz 0.6
Garrett Cooper 0.2 (1.0)
Jon Berti 0.2 (3.0) – Berti’s really, really a lot better than 0.2, right?
Harold Ramirez 0.1
Austin Dean 0.0
Christian Lopes 0.0
Jesus Sanchez 0.0
Matt Kemp 0.0
Monte Harrison -0.2 (0.0)
Magneuris Sierra -0.3 (0.5)
Lewis Brinson -0.3 (0.0)

Now with 32.1 WAR, not cleaning up the pitching projections as such just yet, the Marlins are at 80-82, within sniffing distance of .500. But we want the playoffs, right?

Pitchers

Steamer really likes Pablo Lopez, for some reason more than any other Marlins pitcher, at 2.2 WAR. I only say that because Sandy Alcantara‘s last two months of 2019 were so sublime, not from any lack of ability on the part of the Doctor. His WAR totals over his first two seasons were 0.4 and 0.5, respectively, but as this is a thought exercise, and more importantly, my thought exercise, I’m going to pick and choose where to ignore my own better judgement. If Steamer is going to be bullish on one or two of our guys, I say let them. I’m only here to correct them when they undervalue our guys, but they don’t really answer to me anyway, right?

Caleb Smith clocks in with a 1.8 WAR projection next year, but Smith is clearly capable of great and mighty things from the pitchers mound. In 28 starts last year, he was at 1.5, so this projection may be pretty close to Smith’s actual output – but they still have to play the games.

Sandy Alcantara, who was clearly Miami’s best pitcher in 2019 despite a 6-14 record, has a projected WAR value of just 1.5. However, after he literally doubled that number last season, with a 3.1 WAR, I’m going to assert he’ll repeat. The Marlins are now at 33.7 WAR – a .500 team.

Jordan Yamamoto is projected by Steamer to take 24 turns in the rotation, and they plugged him in with a 1.1 WAR. In 15 starts last year, he was at 1.0 with a solid 1.144 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, and only 6.2 H/9 allowed. This guy is better than Steamer thinks, and I’m going to say he’ll nearly match Alcantara and award 2.5. Up to 35.1 WAR, the Marlins move to 83-79. Not yet in the playoff picture, but not that far out of it either.

Elieser Hernandez pitched to a solid 1.239 WHIP in 2019, but also clocked in with a 5.58 FIP. Steamer says he’ll be worth 1.0 WAR, so we’ll just go with that.

Jarlin Garcia is rated with a -0.1 WAR, but he pitched to a 1.105 WHIP and only 7.1 H/9 in 2019, and was worth 1.3 WAR. Let’s say he repeats that. We’re now sitting pretty with 36.5 WAR, or at 84-78.

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The rest of the staff projects as such:

Jose Urena 0.9
Ryne Stanek 0.7
Robert Dugger 0.2
Sixto Sanchez 0.2
Sterling Sharp 0.2
Jeff Brigham 0.2
Nick Neidert 0.1
Kyle Keller 0.1
Drew Steckenrider 0.1
Austin Brice 0.1
Yimi Garcia 0.1 (0.5)
Adam Conley 0.1
Brian Moran 0.1
Jose Quijada 0.0
Alex Vesia 0.0

As this was a thought exercise, I think I need to state that a lot needs to go right for this to actually come to fruition. I didn’t very much account for possible injuries to the principle components of this calculation. That being said, an 85-77 record puts the Marlins in the conversation in an already pretty tough National League East.

Disagree? Let me know about it in the comments, or come over and let’s talk on Twitter, where everyone loves the Marlins