How the Marlins Will Finish in the Playoff Race (in 2020)

Pitchers

Steamer really likes Pablo Lopez, for some reason more than any other Marlins pitcher, at 2.2 WAR. I only say that because Sandy Alcantara‘s last two months of 2019 were so sublime, not from any lack of ability on the part of the Doctor. His WAR totals over his first two seasons were 0.4 and 0.5, respectively, but as this is a thought exercise, and more importantly, my thought exercise, I’m going to pick and choose where to ignore my own better judgement. If Steamer is going to be bullish on one or two of our guys, I say let them. I’m only here to correct them when they undervalue our guys, but they don’t really answer to me anyway, right?

Caleb Smith clocks in with a 1.8 WAR projection next year, but Smith is clearly capable of great and mighty things from the pitchers mound. In 28 starts last year, he was at 1.5, so this projection may be pretty close to Smith’s actual output – but they still have to play the games.

Sandy Alcantara, who was clearly Miami’s best pitcher in 2019 despite a 6-14 record, has a projected WAR value of just 1.5. However, after he literally doubled that number last season, with a 3.1 WAR, I’m going to assert he’ll repeat. The Marlins are now at 33.7 WAR – a .500 team.

Jordan Yamamoto is projected by Steamer to take 24 turns in the rotation, and they plugged him in with a 1.1 WAR. In 15 starts last year, he was at 1.0 with a solid 1.144 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, and only 6.2 H/9 allowed. This guy is better than Steamer thinks, and I’m going to say he’ll nearly match Alcantara and award 2.5. Up to 35.1 WAR, the Marlins move to 83-79. Not yet in the playoff picture, but not that far out of it either.

Elieser Hernandez pitched to a solid 1.239 WHIP in 2019, but also clocked in with a 5.58 FIP. Steamer says he’ll be worth 1.0 WAR, so we’ll just go with that.

Jarlin Garcia is rated with a -0.1 WAR, but he pitched to a 1.105 WHIP and only 7.1 H/9 in 2019, and was worth 1.3 WAR. Let’s say he repeats that. We’re now sitting pretty with 36.5 WAR, or at 84-78.

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The rest of the staff projects as such:

Jose Urena 0.9
Ryne Stanek 0.7
Robert Dugger 0.2
Sixto Sanchez 0.2
Sterling Sharp 0.2
Jeff Brigham 0.2
Nick Neidert 0.1
Kyle Keller 0.1
Drew Steckenrider 0.1
Austin Brice 0.1
Yimi Garcia 0.1 (0.5)
Adam Conley 0.1
Brian Moran 0.1
Jose Quijada 0.0
Alex Vesia 0.0

As this was a thought exercise, I think I need to state that a lot needs to go right for this to actually come to fruition. I didn’t very much account for possible injuries to the principle components of this calculation. That being said, an 85-77 record puts the Marlins in the conversation in an already pretty tough National League East.

Disagree? Let me know about it in the comments, or come over and let’s talk on Twitter, where everyone loves the Marlins