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Miami Marlins: Bold predictions for pitchers in 2020

By David Levin |
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 17: Caleb Smith #31 of the Miami Marlins delivers a pitch in the first inning of the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on September 17, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 17: Caleb Smith #31 of the Miami Marlins delivers a pitch in the first inning of the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on September 17, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
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JUPITER, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 19: Jordan Yamamoto #50 of the Miami Marlins looks on while performing drills during team workouts at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on February 19, 2020, in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
JUPITER, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 19: Jordan Yamamoto #50 of the Miami Marlins looks on while performing drills during team workouts at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on February 19, 2020, in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

What does the future hold for the Miami Marlins pitching staff in 2020?

It’s still early in the process, but the Miami Marlins coaching staff and front office figure to have tough decisions to make regarding their pitchers for 2020. Actually, there is no figuring about it. There is depth both in the rotation and in the bullpen, which means several good players may be on the outside looking in once the regular season starts.

Sandy Alcantara figures to be the team’s Opening Day starter, followed by Caleb Smith and Pablo Lopez. After that, as we have discussed, throw as many as six names into a hat and shake it up. Then choose two of them to fill out the rotation.

Have I mentioned before that this is a good problem for manager Don Mattingly and his staff to have? The Marlins depth on the mound is something many other MLB teams would love to have – evident of the push by front offices this offseason to acquire Smith and potential other names that were not discussed in open conversation.

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It’s pretty cool to be one of the popular kids when school starts. The Marlins proved that at the Baseball Winter Meetings in San Diego earlier this year. The team’s popularity figures to grow as the wins mount or in another direction if the team cannot get itself out of the National League East basement. Teams will once again ask if young arms are for sale and what the cost might be.

The rotation remains the core of conversation for this franchise heading into 2020, but the bullpen has been overhauled to help hold leads and potentially extend them. The front office made major changes to the team’s starting lineup, but let’s not forget the relief effort got its own makeover, too.

I’m in the minority here, but I do think if the pitching staff can hold its own and the relievers do their job, then 75-80 wins aren’t out of the question. And with that, I give you three bold predictions for Marlins pitchers for the season.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – JUNE 21: Sandy Alcantara #22 of the Miami Marlins talks with teammate Bryan Holaday #28 in the fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on June 21, 2019, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – JUNE 21: Sandy Alcantara #22 of the Miami Marlins talks with teammate Bryan Holaday #28 in the fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on June 21, 2019, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images) /

Dominance at the Top

The Marlins got 10 wins out of Caleb Smith and only six from Sandy Alcantara. By my math, that’s 16 of the team’s 57 victories in 2019. What if the two aces of the rotation approached that win total on their own?

Miami had two winning pitchers in 2017 in Jose Urena (14) and Dan Straily (10). I could see Smith and Alcantara each approach somewhere between 15-17 wins in 2020.

Smith must find the rhythm he had in the first half of 2019 again, but have it carry over to the second half of the season. He must cut down on home runs he surrenders and work on keeping his pitch count down.

Alcantara was 6-14 last year but had some of the most impressive outings as a starter last season. Can the lineup support him with more runs this season? Alcantara could be a Cy Young candidate with the right balance of pitching and support. He is that good and has worked to improve his control and consistency.

ST LOUIS, MO – JUNE 19: Adam Conley #61 of the Miami Marlins delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals in the eleventh inning at Busch Stadium on June 19, 2019, in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
ST LOUIS, MO – JUNE 19: Adam Conley #61 of the Miami Marlins delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals in the eleventh inning at Busch Stadium on June 19, 2019, in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

The Rebirth of Adam Conley

Which Adam Conley will the Marlins get this season? The one who looked like he could one of the best set-up men in baseball two seasons ago or the one who struggled in his worst season as a Marlins pitcher in 2019?

I was a bit surprised the team kept Conley on the roster while Jarlin Garcia was DFA’d. But the thinking is Conley may be more effective out of the bullpen. Still, the jury is out to see if the right move was made by the front office.

Conley started his career as a starter and moved to the ‘pen. He is still fighting for a place on the staff, but it is unlikely that a 2-11 season like last year will happen again. Look for Conley to rebound and offer the team a strong effort in short relief and to work as a setup man for the closer this coming season.

It’s still possible Miami will look to trade him toward the MLB Trade deadline if his pitching rebounds and he throws more strikes in 2020.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JUNE 18: Brandon Kintzler #20 of the Chicago Cubspitches against the Chicago White Sox at Wrigley Field on June 18, 2019, in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JUNE 18: Brandon Kintzler #20 of the Chicago Cubspitches against the Chicago White Sox at Wrigley Field on June 18, 2019, in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

A Closer with Consistency

Don Mattingly stopped short prior to Spring Training of naming Brandon Kintzler the team’s new closer, but seeing as he has the most experience in that role, it’s probably a foregone conclusion it will happen.

That’s a good thing if Kintzler can end the controversy over who has the ninth-inning specialist’s role this season. Sergio Romo served as a rent-a-closer last season. We can hope this is not one of those situations. If the Marlins win more games and Knitzler proves to be a reliable option, then maybe he sticks around more than one season.

The Marlins have veterans on staff who should be able to control games more than last season. The front office made it a point to add more consistency and experience to a group that at times seemed lost in 2019.

This should pay off in a big way in the 2020 season and potentially beyond.

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