Is Trevor Rogers still an ace for the Miami Marlins?

MIAMI, FL - SEPTEMBER 04: Trevor Rogers #28 of the Miami Marlins pitches in the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at loanDepot park on September 4, 2021 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Bryan Cereijo/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FL - SEPTEMBER 04: Trevor Rogers #28 of the Miami Marlins pitches in the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at loanDepot park on September 4, 2021 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Bryan Cereijo/Getty Images) /
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Trevor Rogers was a revelation for the Miami Marlins last season. He provided 133.0 innings of elite production: 2.64 ERA/2.55 FIP with 10.62 K/9 and 3.11 BB/9. The big question was whether he was now a legit ace or if it was unsustainable production. I personally thought that it was legitimate, but of course only him following up on it this season would truly give us an answer to this question.

Trevor Rogers was a Cy Young caliber pitcher for the Miami Marlins last season.

Rogers has struggled early on in 2022 and now has a 5.09 ERA in 17.2 innings. That sounds pretty bad, but once you look deeper into his production, things start to look a lot more promising. First of all his FIP is 3.02, which reveals that he was unlucky and should have an ERA closer to that. He also still has his 94.5 mph fastball. Trevor Rogers’s poor production this season was due to bad luck and not a loss of ability.

There are more positives with Trevor Rogers… the ace’s strikeout rate went down to an uncharacteristically low 7.13, it’s almost certainly going to bounce back to his career norms (10.58 is his career average). Trevor Rogers’s xERA actually improved from 3.37 last season to 3.13 this season! He improved the whiff rate on his fastball from 26.8% to 27.9%.

The bottom line is that Trevor Rogers is still an ace, he just had a bit of bad luck so far this season. This means that the Miami Marlins have an envious trio of aces with Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez and Sandy Alcantara. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Trevor Rogers is a Cy Young candidate at the end of the season.

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