What went wrong for Trevor Rogers and the Miami Marlins last night?

Neil Raymond

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 20: Trevor Rogers #28 of the Miami Marlins pitches against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on July 20, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

Yesterday we published an article about Trevor Rogers still being an ace, and then… his next start happened. I don’t think that Miami Marlins fans would like to be reminded of that start, so let’s just mention the basics: he gave up 5 runs in 4 innings to the Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s not good to say the least. So this article is meant to… double down on him still being an ace!

Trevor Rogers has the ability to win a Cy Young award for the Miami Marlins.

Trevor Rogers had a bad game. It happens. No ace in the game is flawless and never has bad games. The issue is that Rogers had a couple of those early on. Still, he’s coming off two good games prior so it’s not as if he’s constantly pitching poorly. He gave up two home runs and that’s what did him in yesterday.

Let’s take a look at Trevor Rogers a bit more again… In fact let’s dig deeper. During his last season’s elite production, opponents hit his slider at the rate of .273/.294/.364 , this season however they only hit .231/.155/.385. That’s an improvement. What about his changeup? .199/.213/.265 last season and .185/.209/.333 this season. Once again an improvement. What about his trademark fastball? That’s where we see a problem… .222/.219/.344 last season and .318/.341/.559 this season!

The strange part with Trevor’s fastball is that the whiff% only slightly declined from 26.8% to 25.5%. I strongly suspect that he is tipping his fastballs, as it’s impossible to believe that that one pitch has become so significantly worse. It’s especially likely because his fastball velocity is exactly the same for both seasons. Trevor Rogers’s improvements in effectiveness with his other pitches are key here. I strongly believe that Rogers is going to get his fastball under control.

The Miami Marlins still have a top of the rotation starter in Trevor Rogers and it’s best to write-off his current struggles as mostly just bad luck. It’s also a good idea for Rogers to study his starts this season and figure out if he is indeed tipping his pitches. Either way, I fully expect Rogers to finish the season with strong numbers.

Neil Raymond

Neil Raymond has been a lifelong Miami Marlins fan, with the 2003 playoff run being one of his favorite childhood memories. Neil has been called a "walking encyclopedia" for his knowledge of MLB statistics and the sport's history. He follows every game and actually invented his own statistic for player value on his side project BaseballAnalyzed.com. Writing for Fansided's Marlin Maniac since 2022, he also loves Fantasy Baseball and as such is an FSWA member. Neil also loves to travel, read and follow "Futbol" teams: Germany, Argentina, Greece, Inter Miami, Bayern Munich and NYC FC.